3 Stunning Trends You Can’t Ignore When Betting Super Bowl 55
Adam Thompson | 4 mins
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come into Super Bowl 55 riding a seven-game winning streak. Their last loss: A 27-24 setback to the Kansas City Chiefs on Nov. 29. The Chiefs have lost just one game in which its starters played and that was in early October. Each team enters Super Bowl LV red-hot and each has built key trends and trademarks in reaching Raymond James Stadium with the Lombardi Trophy on the line on February 7.
When it comes to Super Bowl betting, however, new trends emerge – and they’re so strong, they are not to be ignored. There are three big trends that can be used to your advantage when laying your own Super Bowl 55 bets.
CHECK OUT: Our Ultimate Betting Guide To Super Bowl 2021
Trend 1: Spread The Love
Teams that get to the Super Bowl not just win a lot of games to get there, they exceed expectations. At least those set by sportsbooks.
To that point, one astonishing NFL betting trend emerges: No Super Bowl winner has ever had a sub-.500 record against the spread.
Only three Super Bowl teams were at or below .500 ATS for the season. Two of them, the 2009 Saints and 2012 Ravens, finished at exactly .500. The 2003 Panthers were sub-.500 going into Big Game but covered that day to finish even.
Regardless of the result, the Chiefs, at 8-10 ATS, will finish as the only Super Bowl team in NFL history to have a losing record vs. the spread. The Buccaneers went 11-8 ATS (57.9%) in 2020, the NFL’s seventh-best mark.
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Trend 2: High Total = Easy Under?
Super Bowl 2021 has an Over/Under set at 56.5 points, the third-highest total in the game’s 55-year history.
The 2017 Super Bowl between the Patriots and Falcons (O/U 57.5) hit Over; Atlanta infamously led 28-3 before Brady led New England on a historic rally and 34-28 OT win. In 2010, the Saints beat the Colts 31-17 with a total of 57, easily finishing Under in over/under betting.
There have been 12 Super Bowls with an O/U of over 50 points. In those games, the Under is 7-5. The favored team has covered in seven of 12, too.
But take a look at just the last 20 years. In that span, seven games have had 50-plus totals. In an era where offense is considered the must-have strength to get to the Big Game, the Under is 5-2. The underdog has covered in four of those instances.
Regardless of the total, just two of the last eight Super Bowls have finished under 50 points. But only three of seven have finished over 52 with an average of 50.6. The last four Super Bowls have featured two offenses ranked in the top five, just as Super Bowl 55 will. Those games averaged 50.8 ppg.
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Trend 3: Slow Start, Strong Finish
Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady has played in a record nine Super Bowls. He has won six of them, all when he was with New England. But nearly each instance has called for a comeback. To say his Patriots teams didn’t come out of the gate very strong would be a ridiculous understatement.
In Brady’s nine Super Bowl appearances, his teams have scored exactly three points in the first quarter.
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Not three points on average. A single field goal. In nine first quarters.
It hasn’t stopped No. 12 from collecting six rings. But the Under on first-quarter and first-half wagers, and Kansas City covering the spread early, looks like a wise wager based on history.
One other bizarre Brady nugget: Win or lose, the nine Super Bowls he has played in have tied or increased in win margin each time out. His first four championship games were each decided by exactly three points. The next two were by four points. After that, by six, by eight and by 10.