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By Bill Speros | | 9 mins

Tom Brady 2021 NFL MVP Odds: GOAT Climbs Toward Top Of Hill

Tom Brady 2021 NFL MVP Odds: GOAT Climbs Toward Top Of Hill

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Seven-time Super Bowl champion QB Tom Brady saw his MVP odds tighten across NFL futures markets after another otherworldly performance on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes II, Arizona QB Kyler Murray and Brady are clustered at the top of MVP betting board, with their price and position depending on the individual sportsbook.

Brady tagged the Falcons for 5 TDs and hit on 24 of 36 attempts for 276 yards. He posted a 129.2 QB rating and threw no picks. Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers demolished the Falcons 48-25 at Raymond James Stadium. Brady and Rob Gronkowski connected on scoring passes for the 101st and 102nd time in their careers on Sunday.

Gronkowski played with Brady for nine years in New England before coming out of retirement to join Brady in Florida last year. He has caught 2 TDs from Brady in three consecutive games, going back to Super Bowl 55.

These numbing numbers pushed Brady’s NFL odds to win his fourth MVP award down to +550 from +1200 at PointsBet. Here’s a look at the top movement on the MVP odds board at that site in NFL betting markets ahead of Monday Night Football.

Player Pre-Week 2 Post-Week 2Trend
Patrick Mahomes+400+500
Tom Brady+1200+550
Kyler Murray+1000+750
Derek Carr+4000+2000
Jameis Winston+1600+4000

Odds current as of publication. Check out our PointsBet review for more information on the operator.


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Brady has won 10 straight games nine different times in his 22-year NFL career. And he and the Bucs broke his old record of winning the most consecutive games while scoring 30 points, having now done so nine straight times. The Patriots won eight straight games while scoring 30 points on two different occasions during Brady’s time in New England.

For those keeping track, Brady has 9 TD passes on the season. His replacement in New England last year, Cam Newton, had 8 in all of 2020 and was cut in training camp this year after losing his job to rookie Mac Jones.

Brady is now 202-136-8 all-time against the spread in his 346 starts, including the postseason. In another remarkable nod to Brady’s consistency and ability to mock Father Time, Brady has evenly divided his record outright in the first and second halves of his career. He is 133-40 in the first 173 starts and 133-40 over his second 173 starts.

RELATED: Kyler Murray Among NFL MVP Favorites; Is There Value?

Overall MVP Odds

Tom Brady 2021 NFL MVP Odds: GOAT Climbs Toward Top Of Hill 1

Mahomes has been the first choice to be the 2021 NFL MVP ever since the markets first opened at US sportsbooks and on sports betting apps. His price has ranged from +350 to +500 since the spring.

Here are the latest odds to win the 2021 MVP award. Last year’s winner was Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes II+500 FanDuel
Kyler Murray+500 FanDuel
Tom Brady+550 PointsBet
Russell Wilson+800 PointsBet
Matthew Stafford+1000 PointsBet
Johs Allen+1200 FanDuel
Dak Prescott+1400 DraftKings

Check out our DraftKings vs FanDuel review for the latest comparison of the two sportsbooks.


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What’s Next For Brady?

Tom Brady 2021 NFL MVP Odds: GOAT Climbs Toward Top Of Hill 2

Brady has thrown 154 TD passes since turning 40 in August of 2017. That’s the most TD passes thrown by any quarterback in their fifth decade by a margin of 97. Drew Brees is second in this category with 57. That’s not impressive enough? OK, Brady needs only 13 more TD passes to match the number of TDs he threw in his 20s, in his 40s. That would be 167 for those who don’t want to do the math.

The Super Bowl champion Bucs (2-0/1-1) crushed the closing line of +13 Sunday thanks in part to a pair of pick-sixes thrown by Falcons QB Matt Ryan in the fourth quarter. Brady is now 8-0 against Atlanta all time. Brady and the Bucs travel next Sunday to SoFi Stadium for a game against the Rams (2-0/1-1), which could well determine the lone bye in the NFC. The Rams are 1-point favorites at DraftKings. Both are -110 on the moneyline .

The total Sunday is 54.5. Remember, the last time a team led by Brady played the Rams, it resulted in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in history. New England (-2.5) beat LA 13-3 in Super Bowl 51. That game opened with a Super Bowl record-high total of 56.5 points.

What will be Brady’s first-ever NFL game in Los Angeles is followed on the schedule by an apocalyptic clash between Brady and Bill Belichick – also starring the Patriots and Buccaneers – in two weeks at Gillette Stadium on Oct. 3. The Bucs were -3 when that line was initially set in the spring.

Brady needs 500 yards to break the all-time NFL career passing yards record of 80,358, currently held by Brees. Brady has 655 yards passing in 2021 (322.5 YPG) and is mathematically on track to claim that honor sometime in the first half against the Patriots. Brady was +250 to break the passing record during his game against the Patriots before the season began.

These two games offer the most challenging back-to-back stretch for the Bucs on their NFL schedule given the opposition, emotion and travel involved. For those who failed to grab the value on Brady in the MVP race or any other player futures market, you might want to wait until after the Week 3 game against the Rams since Brady could well struggle to produce points.


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About the Author

Bill Speros for
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.