By Bill Speros | | 27 mins
Tom Brady 2022 NFL MVP Odds: GOAT Climbs From +4500 To +800
Seven-time Super Bowl champion QB Tom Brady "unretired" Sunday and saw his NFL futures odds soar to win MVP honors for the 2022 season.
Brady will be 45 when the season begins in September. That hasn't scared off oddsmakers or bettors. Brady’s NFL odds to win his fourth MVP award were +4500 at Caesars Sportsbook even after he "retired" in February. Brady led the NFL in passing yards, TD passes, attempts and completions in 2021.
Brady's price to be 2022 NFL MVP is up to +800 at PointsBet and DraftKings. He is +900 at FanDuel, having received 70% of the bets to win MVP since his "unfinished business" Tweet went up Sunday night.
Aaron Rodgers won his second-straight MVP award in February. Rodgers and the Packers have agreed to a contract extension that reportedly pays the QB $200 million over the next five years, with $153 million guaranteed.
NFL MVP Odds For 2022 Season
Here are the best-value 2022 NFL MVP odds for each quarterback on various betting apps, and where they stood before news of Brady's return Sunday.
We’ve also included top running backs Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor; and wide receiver Triple Crown winner and Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp.
Odds current as of publication. Check out our Caesars Sportsbook page for more information on the operator.
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Tom Brady Career Betting History
After news of Brady's retirement and the Super Bowl, Patrick Mahomes II of the Chiefs and Rodgers were co-favorites to be MVP at Caesars at +700. Even though Brady walked away from the NFL after 22 seasons, there remained a belief - if not hope - among many inside and outside the game that he would eventually return.
Among those were the NFL betting oddsmakers at Caesars. They gave Brady better MVP odds than 17 other quarterbacks despite Brady's retirement. Among the passers with longer odds than Brady to win the 2022 MVP: Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, and Jameis Winston.
Brady is 221-144-8 all-time against the spread, including the postseason. He's covered in 58.1% of his 363 starts, 47 of which occurred in the postseason. Brady won seven of his 10 Super Bowl starts, but finished 5-5 ATS in the Big Game. If you were able to bet $100 on Brady each week of his career using the industry standard -110 ATS odds, you'd be up $4,779.80.
His run for an eighth title ring and a repeat Super Bowl fell short in the NFL Divisional Round against the eventual champion Rams. In their 30-27 loss to the Rams, Brady and the Buccaneers rallied from a 27-3 deficit to tie the game at 27-27 with less than a minute to play. Brady would have likely won MVP honors had he and the Buccaneers not been shut out by the Saints 9-0 at home on Dec. 19.
Of the NFL quarterbacks with more than 30 starts who played in the 2021-22 season, Brady ranks 4th all-time ATS, behind Teddy Bridgewater (66.6%), his former backup Jimmy Garoppolo (59.2%) and Josh Allen (59.0%). A former Patriots QB with Brady, Garoppolo led San Francisco to the NFC title game. All-time, Brady ranks second ATS during the regular season, only behind Joe Montana.
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What’s Next For Brady?
The Buccaneers are now favorites or co-favorites to win the NFC and one book has them as the pick to win the Super Bowl. Brady had been less-than-convincing when it came to hanging up his cleats for good.
After issuing multiple retirement announcements and "thank yous," Brady said on his "Let's Go!" podcast, “Never say never” when the subject of him playing again was raised by host Jim Gray.
Brady's sentiment changed slightly back and forth during his 40-day hiatus from the NFL.
“I’m super content and happy with how I feel in my decision. All you can do is take it day by day, nothing’s promised for us. I’m gonna do things I really enjoy and spend time with people that I really enjoy spending time with. So the future is bright," Brady told his SiriusXM audience in February.
That left fans and bettors still free to freak out, and perhaps back the GOAT one more time on betting sites. Brady's former teammates appeared split on their thoughts about his future. There had been healthy speculation that Brady would eventually end up playing for the San Francisco 49ers, the team closest to his boyhood home and the one he rooted for as a boy.
Brady remained on the Buccaneers active roster throughout his 40-day exile. The team controls his rights for the 2022-23 season. GM Jason Licht never gave up on Brady returning this season and left just enough on the table for Brady to end his retirement before it technically ever got started. The Buccaneers also have second-year QB Kyle Trask on their roster.
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