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Ultimate Super Bowl 57 Betting Trends Guide with DraftKings' Johnny Avello

Carl Carchia for Bookies.com

Carl Carchia  | 17 mins

Ultimate Super Bowl 57 Betting Trends Guide with DraftKings' Johnny Avello

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Roughly 15% of the adult population (50.4 million people) will wager about $16 billion total on Super Bowl 57, according to the American Gaming Association. Legalization of mobile betting in Kansas, Maryland and Ohio means that figure is expected to be 61% higher than 2022. 

And they could be in for an epic NFL betting experience. But don’t take our word for it. The point spread (Eagles -1.5) is under two points on betting apps for just the fifth time in the Super Bowl era (the Chiefs were also part of the last instance - in Super Bowl XIV vs. the 49ers).

This year’s Big Game truly feels like a coin toss (see what we did there), for various reasons, none bigger than the health of Chiefs’ star QB Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes said he feels better than he did heading into the game against Cincinnati. But he’s facing a ferocious pass rush and lacks his usual mobility.

What’s a bettor to do? Ask an expert. 

Bookies.com caught up with Johnny Avello, the veteran oddsmaker who serves as the Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings to talk Super Bowl 57: The early trends, the biggest bets, his favorite prop bet and, of course, his Super Bowl 57 pick. 

RELATED: Ultimate Super Bowl 57 Betting Guide

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Super Bowl 57 Spread Betting Trends

SpreadHandle% of Bets
Eagles -1.5 70%67%
Chiefs +1.5 30%33%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of 2/11/23.

The Dolphins were 1-point favorites over Washington in 1973. The 49ers were a 1-point favorite over the Bengals in 1982. 

The Chiefs were 1.5-point favorites over the Niners in 2020 and the Seahawks were 1-point favorites over the Patriots in 2015. Four times. That’s four times since 1967 that the Super Bowl point spread was under two points.

Anyone who has watched football long enough knows that the line for the next year’s Super Bowl is automatically set at AFC/NFC -3. It rarely goes below that number, regardless of the participants. 

Except this time.

 “(The Super Bowl) is usually 3 points, but when you look at the two teams, they are very close in terms of power rating,” Avello said. “It’s a tight number and it makes for a very good betting game.”

The Eagles are 1.5-point favorites, though that’s after significant early line movement.

Super Bowl 57 Moneyline Betting Breakdown

MoneylineHandle% of Bets
Eagles -125 49%44%
Chiefs +105 51%56%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of 2/11/23.

“We opened with the Chiefs as a 1-point favorite and it moved to -2.5 for the Eagles within a day or so and it stayed there,” Avello said, citing Mahomes’ health and other Chiefs’ injuries as the main reasons for the move.

“That’s backed off to 1.5 now, so there has been some Chiefs money, but we are still 70/30 on the Eagles.”

In case you’re wondering, and we know you are, the Eagles went 10-8 ATS as a favorite this season, covering by an average of 3.3 points. That cover margin was good for 5th-best in the NFL. 

Philadelphia has a dominant offense led by Jalen Hurts and a defense that ranked No.1 against the pass all season. But many observers, including Avello, believe this is the biggest test the Eagles will face.

“They probably haven’t met a team with this type of offense,” Avello said.

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Strength vs. Strength

Mahomes leads a Kansas City passing attack that had an NFL-high 73 completions of 20+ yards, but a lot of big plays have come thanks to his improvisational skills when he leaves the pocket. That element of his game was compromised against the Bengals due to an ankle injury suffered in the Divisional Round vs. Jacksonville.

This is where we note that the Eagles led the NFL in sacks with 70 – 15 more than second place Kansas City) and tied for the 3rd-most interceptions in the NFL.

Thus, Avello thinks it all boils down to the Chiefs offense: “If they are on and they put up 35 points, they’ll be hard to beat, but if Mahomes runs into any roadblocks and hurdles where his movement is not what it usually is …”

For the record, if Mahomes was healthy, Avello says the this line would still be Chiefs -1: “Right where we initially opened it.”

Super Bowl 57 Over/Under Betting Breakdown

TotalHandle% of Bets
Over 51 56%52%
Under 51 44%48%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of 2/8/23.

“The general public likes the Eagles right now. Will that change? We’ll see, but right now there’s just a lot of Eagles support.”

The moneyline action is more balanced. As for the total? Avello has written 57% of tickets to the Over 51 (this makes sense with two aggressive coaches).

As for the big bets, they’ve trickled in, but the bigger ones come Saturday and Sunday.

“We’ve taken multiple six-figure bets,” Avello said. “I’m sure we’ll see seven-figure bets leading up to game time. The guys that bet that kind of money don’t think the line will change that much and they might get an even better price, so they’ll wait until Saturday or Sunday.”

I pressed Avello for his Super Bowl 57 best bet: “I don’t have a lean right now. That doesn’t mean I won’t bet on the game. I might wait for in-play (betting). I like to see the flow of the game before I put my opinion out there.”

Super Bowl 57 Prop Betting

If it feels like Mahomes is the key to the entire game, it’s because at the risk of being too simplistic, he is (Avello noted that Mahomes Over touchdown passes is the heaviest bet prop and has moved to 2.5 after being at Over 1.5 earlier in the week).

How Mahomes fares against a historically great pass rush (the Eagles are the first team in NFL history to have four players with 10+ sacks) on a bum ankle will go a long way toward deciding who wins. 

Jim Miller, former NFL QB and current NFL analyst on Sirius XM recently said on air: “I can see the Eagles winning if Jalen Hurts has a bad game. I don’t see (the Chiefs winning) if Mahomes has a bad game.”

RELATED: 23 Most Intriguing Super Bowl 57 Props For Chiefs-Eagles

You might be aware that a healthy Mahomes is not the QB to bet against when he’s the underdog. The future Hall of Famer is 7-1-1 ATS as a ‘dog. But again, how healthy is he?

If Mahomes goes over his passing yards total (up to 295.5 after being at 290.5 earlier in the week), there’s a good chance the Chiefs come out on top (77% of handle is on the Over). 

“If he can get out of the pocket and do his Houdini routine, he (could) go over his total. But if he’s throwing (from the pocket) those are really difficult passes,” Avello said.

One particular bettor is bearish on Mahomes: he/she bet $2,000 on Mahomes Exact Pass Completions to be 12 or less (at +11000 odds; the total is set at 25.5 completions). The payout? $222,000. 

Injury notwithstanding, that person would be better off placing it on tails, which is attracting 54% of bets and 56% of handle. Interestingly enough, the winner of the coin toss has lost 8 straight Super Bowls, according to DraftKings.

The Chiefs to win the coin toss and the game is +300 (97% on yes), while the Eagles are at +250 (98% yes).

Super Bowl 57 Anytime TD Bets & Other Prop Bets

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts -115 at DraftKings
Eagles RB Miles Sanders  -105 at DraftKings
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce -135 at DraftKings
Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco +115 at DraftKings
Eagles WR A.J. Brown +105 at DraftKings

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of 2/11/23.

The anytime touchdown scorer market is exploding (this writer enjoys playing them) and Avello said he expects it to be one of the bigger prop markets because “it was one of the bigger markets all year long.”

What’s more, the first touchdown scorer market is especially popular since it has more attractive odds. Travis Kelce (+700) is getting 25.4% of the first-touchdown scorer handle and 21.6% of the bets, followed by A.J. Brown (+900) at 8.8% and 8.4% of the bets. 

We’re not betting him to score first, but we do love one Kelce prop: Over 6.5 catches - and Avello agreed. But the Super Bowl 57 prop he prefers? Any player to have a reception of 55+ yards (+250) . “It seems like there’s gonna be a big play in this game.”

RELATED: Best Travis Kelce Super Bowl Props

If there is, it’s likely to come from the enormous arm of Mahomes, who is getting 24.5% of the handle and 15.5% of bets to win Super Bowl 57 MVP. 

Super Bowl MVP Betting Trends

Player/OddsHandle% of Bets
Patrick Mahomes: +120 24.5%15.5%
Jalen Hurts: +125 20.9%13.7%
Haason Reddick: +3000 12.8%13.2%
Travis Kelce: +1200 11.9%12.5%
Miles Sanders: +2200 4.8%6%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of 2/11/23.

Jalen Hurts is predictably getting the second-most action, however, Eagles LB Haason Reddick at +3500 (12.8%, 13.2%) is the third-most popular MVP bet, ahead of Travis Kelce (11.9%, 12.5%).

This writer, and the long-time oddsmaker, both raised our eyebrows at that one. Sure, Reddick single-handedly ended the Niners’ season, but that seems like a reach.

“I don’t know what the angle was there, but a lot of people found that angle.”

From now until Sunday, that’s what we’ll all be looking for: An angle.

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About the Author

Carl Carchia for Bookies.com
Carl Carchia
An editor for Bookies.com, Carl has 15 years’ experience covering sports (and sports betting) during stops at PA SportsTicker, NBC, ESPN, CBS, among others. Carl has been embedded in the sports gambling scene for two decades and loves that CT now has regulated betting.