2025 Belmont Stakes Horse Racing Picks: Who Will Win the Journalism vs. Sovereignty Rematch?

By Adam Thompson Jun 6th, 2025 6:00 PM EDT

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One year ago this week, Bookies.com horse racing handicapper Adam Thompson posted picks for a Triple Crown race; he nailed the Belmont Stakes trifecta, resulting in a massive $500 win on a $3 wager for those tailing his choices.

Now he’s back for the 2025 Belmont Stakes, and is locked in not just for Belmont Stakes picks, but every race at Pimlico Race Course in upstate New York on Saturday.

Just two weeks ago, Thompson hit big at the Preakness Stakes. Thompson has now been crushing horse racing for the last three years. Last year, he cashed on eight of the 13 races at the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, and won more than half the races at last year’s Preakness Stakes.

Now he has set his sights on the 157th running of the Belmont Stakes. The eight-horse field goes to post at 7:04 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 17.

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2025 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course

Saturday, May 17 | 7:04 p.m. ET | NBC

A modest eight horses are in the Belmont Stakes field. I’ve found three worth banking on, and the top horse is no surprise.

JOURNALISM (#7, 8/5 odds) was the favorite to win the Derby, ultimately taking second to Sovereignty. I also took Journalism to win the Preakness, and he did in dramatic comeback fashion. Sovereignty skipped the Preakness,

This is the Derby rematch, but with 12 fewer horses in the field. The Michael McCarthy-trained horse, who had won every graded stakes race before the Derby, can win another Triple Crown race here with a clean run, something he didn’t get at Churchill Downs.

Every wager we’re taking for the Belmont Stakes is headed by Journalism. We can make more based on the horses we place underneath.

SOVEREIGNTY (#2, 2-1), for a moment on Thursday, moved into co-favorite status before dipping a bit. The Bill Mott entry hasn’t raced since the Derby win, but has taken first or second in every race since his debut.

His speed number at the derby was way higher than his previous races. Journalism’s time at the Preakness was even higher, but more on par with his career trajectory. We’ll be using Sovereignty in exacta and trifecta wagers.

BAEZA (#6, 4-1) is No. 3 on the board and No. 3 on my board as well. He’s finished Top 3 in every dirt race, all with worthy times and competition. He’s only finished behind Journalism, Sovereignty and Rodriguez, who is also in the Belmont.

The Bob Baffert-trained Rodriguez is the odd horse out of these exotics. He’s finished no worse than third in his five-race career, but did not run either of the Triple Crown races or any Grade 1 races. It’s a bigger jump in competition and he’s never raced this distance before.

Picks for Belmont Stakes and Pimlico Races For June 7th

Here’s how we’re betting the Preakness Stakes and every race at Pimlico on Saturday:

Belmont Stakes Picks

$20 To Win: 7 ($20)

$3 Exacta: 7 with 2,6 ($6)

$2 Trifecta Box: 2,6,7 ($12)

Saratoga Race Course Saturday Picks

RACE 1: 1 To Win; Exacta 1 with 2,8

RACE 2: Exacta Box 4,7,10

RACE 3: Exacta 4,7 with 3,4,6,7

RACE 4: 9 To Win

RACE 5: 8 To Win; Exacta 8 with 1,2

RACE 6: 6 To Win; Exacta 6 with 4,5,8

RACE 7: Exacta Box 4,6,7

RACE 8: 1 To Win; Exacta 1 with 2,4,5; Trifecta 1 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5; Superfecta 1 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5 with 2,4,5

RACE 9: Exacta Box 2,9

RACE 10: 1 To Win; Exacta 1 with 3,4,7

RACE 11: 5 To Win; Exacta Box 4,5,7

RACE 12: 6 To Win; Exacta Box 3,6,9

RACE 13: Belmont Stakes, see above

RACE 14: 13 To Win

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.