2025 NCAA Men's Final Four Betting Guide: Picks, Best Bets To Back

Florida faces Houston in the NCAA men's basketball championship Monday night San Antonio, Texas (8:50 p.m., CBS). 

The Gators (-111) are 1.5-point favorites over the Cougars (-108) and the total is 141.5. 

For the first time since 2008, all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the national semifinals. 

In the first semifinal, No. 1 Florida (West Region) defeated No. 1 Auburn (Midwest Region). The Gators prevailed 79-73 in what was more or less a one possession game throughout much of the second half. Then, No. 1 seed Houston used a 25-8 run to close out a 70-67 win over Duke. 

'Chalk on the River Walk' No More 

The tournament has been defined by the dominance of favorites. CBS’s Ian Eagle dubbed this year’s Final Four the "Chalk on the River Walk"—a fitting nickname given the betting landscape. 

Overall, in the first 61 games in the field of 64, betting favorites went 49-12 straight up. They are 33-28 ATS (54%). Unders improved this weekend to 34-26-1 (56.6%). 

That ended with Houston's smashing finish against Duke. 

Strikingly, favorites of six or more points are a perfect 31–0, with a 21–12 record against the spread. 

While many brackets have long been discarded or digitally deleted, the Final Four remains one of the most active non-football betting weekends on the sports calendar.

Sportsbooks, however, are hoping for a shift in momentum. The prevalence of chalk throughout March Madness has tilted results heavily in favor of the betting public.

“The tournament has gone in the bettors’ favor with favorites consistently winning,” BetMGM Trading Manager Christian Cipollini said before the Final Four. “The sportsbook is cheering against a Duke–Florida final.”

The book got its wish. 

Duke has attracted a massive share of the futures market at BetMGM, accounting for 40.5% of the national championship handle after opening at +1100 last fall.

Notable Live Futures Bets at BetMGM:

$100,000 on Florida at +900

$50,000 on Houston at +600

Men’s NCAA Final Four Picks & Best Bets

(1) Houston vs. (1) Florida 

Best Bet: Florida -1.5 (-110)
Best Bet: Under 141.5 (-110)

Buzz: The roar you heard Saturday night was from the nation’s sportsbooks. Houston (35–4, 21–17-1 ATS, 15–23-1 O/U) delivered the upset of the season to set up a national championship game against the Florida Gators (35–4, 28–11 ATS, 27–12 O/U) Monday night. 

After a tournament smothered in chalk, the Cougars (+4.5) closed with an 11-1 run to shock Duke 70-67. The Cougars have now won 33 of their last 34 games. They brutalized Duke with a smothering defense and a physical style the Devils had not seen all season. Houston’s path to a title continues to hinge on drawing fouls, controlling tempo, and shutting down transition buckets.

Florida (35–4, 28–11 ATS, 27–12 O/U) outlasted Auburn 79–73, covering the 2.5-point spread. While the Gators are just 2–3 ATS in the tournament, their depth remains a major advantage. Once again, Walter Clayton Jr. stole the show—dropping 34 points, with 20 in the second half, to push Florida through.

Clayton is now the first player since Larry Bird in 1979 to post 30+ points in both the Elite Eight and national semifinals. But Bird's run ended in heartbreak—falling to Magic Johnson's Michigan State. Florida is aiming for a different ending.

To get there, the Gators must clean up their ball control—16 turnovers won’t cut it against a physical Houston team that plays a lot like Auburn. Houston’s defense is fierce. But with a deeper bench and a red-hot Clayton, Florida carries the edge.

Prediction: All hail the Chompions! Florida wins its first national title since 2007 and covers in a gritty, low-scoring affair. roar you heard Saturday night was from the nation’s sportsbooks. Houston (35–4, 21–17-1 ATS, 15–23-1 O/U) delivered the upset of the season to set up a national championship game against the Florida Gators (35–4, 28–11 ATS, 27–12 O/U) Monday night. 

After a tournament smothered in chalk, the Cougars (+4.5) closed with an 11-1 run to shock Duke 70-67. The Cougars have now won 33 of their last 34 games. They brutalized Duke with a smothering defense and a physical style the Devils had not seen all season. Houston’s path to a title continues to hinge on drawing fouls, controlling tempo, and shutting down transition buckets.

Florida (35–4, 28–11 ATS, 27–12 O/U) outlasted Auburn 79–73, covering the 2.5-point spread. While the Gators are just 2–3 ATS in the tournament, their depth remains a major advantage. Once again, Walter Clayton Jr. stole the show—dropping 34 points, with 20 in the second half, to push Florida through.

Clayton is now the first player since Larry Bird in 1979 to post 30+ points in both the Elite Eight and national semifinals. But Bird's run ended in heartbreak—falling to Magic Johnson's Michigan State. Florida is aiming for a different ending.

To get there, the Gators must clean up their ball control—16 turnovers won’t cut it against a physical Houston team that plays a lot like Auburn. Houston’s defense is fierce. But with a deeper bench and a red-hot Clayton, Florida carries the edge.

Prediction: All hail the Chompions! Florida wins its first national title since 2007 and covers in a gritty, low-scoring affair.