The NCAA Men’s Final Four tips off Saturday night at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, in what has become a rare convergence of top seeds.

For the first time since 2008, all four No. 1 seeds have advanced to the national semifinals. The Final Four matchups will be played Saturday, with the national championship game set for Monday, April 8.

In the first semifinal, No. 1 Florida (West Region) will face No. 1 Auburn (Midwest Region). The nightcap features South Region champion and No. 1 seed Houston squaring off against overall top seed Duke, which emerged from the East Region.

Auburn punched its ticket with a gritty 70–64 win over perennial tournament spoiler Michigan State, barely covering the -5.5 spread and providing a sweat for Tigers backers.

Houston needed a last-second in-bound play to beat Purdue 62-60 in its first Elite Game 8 Friday in Indianapolis.

'Chalk on the River Walk'

The tournament has been defined by the dominance of favorites. CBS’s Ian Eagle dubbed this year’s Final Four the "Chalk on the River Walk"—a fitting nickname given the betting landscape. 

Overall, in the first 60 games in the field of 64, betting favorites went 48-12 straight up. They at 32-28 ATS (53.1%). Unders improved this weekend to 33-26-1 (56.4%).

Strikingly, favorites of six or more points are a perfect 31–0, with a 21–12 record against the spread. 

While many brackets have long been discarded or digitally deleted, the Final Four remains one of the most active non-football betting weekends on the sports calendar.

Sportsbooks, however, are hoping for a shift in momentum. The prevalence of chalk throughout March Madness has tilted results heavily in favor of the betting public.

“The tournament has gone in the bettors’ favor with favorites consistently winning,” BetMGM Trading Manager Christian Cipollini said Sunday night. “The sportsbook is cheering against a Duke–Florida final.”

Duke has attracted a massive share of the futures market at BetMGM, accounting for 40.5% of the national championship handle after opening at +1100 last fall.

Notable Live Futures Bets at BetMGM:

$500,000 on Duke at +350 to win the national championship

$100,000 on Florida at +900

$50,000 on Houston at +600

As the Final Four approaches, both sportsbooks and bettors will be watching closely to see if the chalk trend continues—or if a surprise finally breaks through.

Men’s NCAA Final Four Picks & Best Bets

(1) Duke vs. (1) Houston

Saturday, 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)

Best Bet: Duke -4.5 (-105)
Best Bet: Over 136.5 (-110)

Buzz: The Blue Devils (35–3, 25–13 ATS, 20–18 O/U) survived a high-octane battle with No. 4 Arizona in the regional semifinals, winning 100–93. Outside of that shootout, Duke has rarely been pushed into uncomfortable situations during the tournament. Even when star freshman Cooper Flagg had an off night against Alabama, his future NBA-bound teammates rose to the occasion to dispatch the Crimson Tide with ease.

Duke’s starting five may be the most complete and versatile unit in the field, blending size, shooting, and athleticism. Their dominance has translated well for bettors, covering the spread in 25 of 38 games (65.8%).

Houston (34–4, 20–17-1 ATS, 15–22-1 O/U) enters as winners in 30 of their past 31 games. The Cougars are elite defensively and lethal from beyond the arc, shooting close to 40% from three. Their best path to keeping this game close involves drawing fouls, controlling tempo, and limiting Duke’s fast-break opportunities.

However, this -4.5 spread is the tightest Duke has seen all tournament, and an early surge from the Blue Devils could quickly tilt the game. Duke’s size advantage in the backcourt is a key mismatch, and 7-footer Khaman Maluach is poised to dominate both ends in the paint. The Cougars may struggle to keep pace if the game speeds up or becomes a battle of runs. The over also warrants consideration given the potential scoring firepower on both rosters.

Prediction: Duke pulls away late and covers; expect points on both sides to push this one over the total.

(1) Auburn vs. (1) Florida

Saturday, 8:49 p.m. ET (CBS)

Best Bet: Florida -2.5 (-110)
Best Bet: Under 161.5 (-110)

Buzz: Florida (34–4) boasts the best ATS record among remaining teams and ranks No. 5 nationally in covering the spread, posting a 27–11 mark (71.1%). They’ve also hit the over in 27 of those 38 games. However, the Gators have only covered once in four tournament games thus far.

They were tested twice in the tournament —first against defending champion UConn to reach the Sweet 16, and again versus Texas Tech in a gritty Elite Eight showdown. In both games, Florida’s depth, defense, and clutch free-throw shooting proved decisive.

Auburn (32–5, 20–16-1 ATS, 21–15 O/U) enters with a size advantage in the frontcourt and a physical style of play. But the Tigers may find themselves exposed if this game comes down to free throws. Bruce Pearl’s squad will no doubt make adjustments after falling 90–81 to Florida on Feb. 8—a loss that snapped Auburn’s 14-game win streak.

Expect a tight contest. Florida’s guard depth and ability to generate offense late in games should be the difference-maker. Look for a more controlled tempo this time, making the under a viable angle in what could be a half-court-heavy game.

Prediction: Florida edges out another close win, covering the short spread, with the game staying under the high total.