While it won’t exactly go down as an upset, it was still something of a surprise to see +1000 bet Martin Truex Jr. win the rain-postponed NASCAR event at Dover on Monday, ending a 54-race winless skid in the process. 

The 42-year-old dominated the late stages, scoring his first victory since September of 2021. Perhaps more telling, though, was who finished second.There’s certainly an opportunity for someone to break through this weekend in Kansas City, given that defending race winner Kurt Busch has retired. Kyle Larson is the NASCAR odds favorite at +500

That would be Ross Chastain, who enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2022, but has yet to find Victory Lane this year. 

The Trackhouse driver hasn’t shown the consistency of his first season in the next-gen car, but when he’s good, he’s really good: 51 laps led and a runner-up at Dover, 16 laps led and third at Richmond, fourth at Circuit of the Americas. Chastain is a +1200 NASCAR betting wager to win this Sunday at Kansas Speedway, where he’s finished a career-best seventh in back-to-back races.

There’s certainly an opportunity for someone to break through this weekend in Kansas City, given that defending race winner Kurt Busch has retired. Kyle Larson is the NASCAR odds favorite at +500 on the 1.5-mile track, where he has a first and a second among his last three finishes. 

But each of the last two winners at Kansas—Busch and Bubba Wallace, who prevailed there last fall—have been value-laden options from much further down on the odds board.

AdventHealth 400 Odds

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review. 

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AdventHealth 400 Betting Tips

Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin lead all active drivers with three wins apiece at Kansas, with Logano’s 2020 victory being the most recent triumph from among that group. 

Harvick has the best average finish among any driver at Kansas (9.9), which says something given that he’s competed in every race at the track since it opened in 2001. While Harvick’s most recent victory there came in 2018, he’s posted two runner-up results and a third-place finish at Kansas since.

Hamlin has shown a degree of uncharacteristic consistency at Kansas, with top-fives in each of his last three starts, and in five of his last seven. He finished fourth in this race a year ago, and then second in the track’s fall event. 

Logano has managed one top-10 in his last four starts in Kansas City, finishing 17th in both races there last year. Kyle Busch and Truex each own two wins at Kansas, and the Dover winner has a very nice active streak of seven straight top-10 finishes at the 1.5-mile layout.

Wallace finished top-10 in both Kansas races last year, famously winning in the fall, but the 23XI driver has managed just a single top-10 over his last eight starts this season. 

Chase Elliott has twice been a runner-up since his lone Kansas win in 2018, and at +1200 on betting sites he presents very strong value for a driver of his caliber. No. 2 odds choice William Byron has never won at Kansas, but has been top-10 in six of his last seven, while Christopher Bell has finished eighth or better there in three consecutive starts.

AdventHealth 400 Three Best Bets

Denny Hamlin to Win

Odds: +750 at DraftKings

Yes, the dude is as up-and-down as the temperature on an early spring day. But we’re starting to see some hints of elusive consistency from Hamlin, who was fourth at Martinsville, in the running at the end at Talladega, and fifth at Dover on Monday. 

He’s led laps in four of his past five races and is historically very good at Kansas, where his No. 11 team clearly hit on something with the next-gen car a year ago.

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Martin Truex Jr. Top 3

Odds: +240 at DraftKings

The Dover victory continued a nice recent run of performance for Truex, who also finished seventh on the Bristol dirt and third at Martinsville. 

He’s led double-digit laps in three of his last five starts and clearly has a great feel for Kansas, where he’s been top-10 in seven straight and 11 of his last 12. Truex may not have won in Kansas City since 2017, but sixth- and fifth-place finishes there last season indicate he’s clearly capable of doing it again.

Ryan Blaney Top 3

Odds: +400 at DraftKings

The Penske driver appears to have found his groove with three straight finishes of seventh or better, which include a runner-up result at Talladega and a third at Dover. 

While his Kansas results have been a little hit-and-miss, he’s run as well as third at the track (back in his Wood Brothers days) and placed ninth last season in the fall. Like Truex on Monday, Blaney is showing every signal that he’s ready to end a long winless streak, this one stretching back to August of 2021.

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AdventHealth 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. EDT

Where: Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, Kansas

TV: FS1