Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

By Dan Kilbridge | | 6 mins

Best Masters Final Round Performers & What It Means For Bettors

Best Masters Final Round Performers & What It Means For Bettors
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Sunday at the Masters is practically a national holiday in golf circles. Tensions are high, the pressure is on and players in or near the lead know it could be the most important round of their life.

It’s also a great opportunity for golf betting with so much data available. The Masters is the only major played at the same course each year, unlike the other three which annually rotate. Augusta National is more or less the same every year, and players who qualify multiple times begin to show tendencies for better or worse.

We’ve compiled a list of final-round scoring average to see which players tend to stand up to the final-round pressure. Keep in mind, simply making the cut to see a Sunday at Augusta National is a huge accomplishment. Three of the top-10 players on our list have only played one final round in the Masters. There are a number of outliers on the bottom as well with guys who played poorly in their first Sunday at Augusta.

Final-round scoring average doesn’t necessarily indicate the players with the best chance to win. Some players might perform better on Sundays when they’re well out of contention and the pressure is off, lowering the overall average. But we do see some general tendencies and trends in final-round scoring average that can be put to use.


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Masters Final-Round Scoring Average Of 2021 Field

  • 1. Michael Thompson – 67, 1 round
  • 2. C.T. Pan – 68, 1 round
  • 3. Sungjae Im – 69, 1 round
  • 4. Tony Finau – 70, 3 rounds
  • 5. Danny Willett – 70.33, 3 rounds
  • 5. Daniel Berger – 70.33, 3 rounds
  • 7. Brooks Koepka – 70.6, 5 rounds
  • 8. Patrick Cantlay – 70.67, 3 rounds
  • 8. Si Woo Kim – 70.67, 3 rounds
  • 10. Jon Rahm – 70.75, 4 rounds
  • 11. Dustin Johnson – 70.78, 9 rounds
  • 12. Matthew Fitzpatrick – 70.8, 5 rounds
  • 12. Justin Thomas – 70.8, 5 rounds
  • 14. Jason Day – 70.88, 8 rounds
  • 15. Paul Casey – 70.9, 10 rounds
  • 16. Tiger Woods – 70.95, 22 rounds
  • 17. Rory McIlroy – 71, 11 rounds
  • 17. Jordan Spieth – 71, 7 rounds
  • 17. Webb Simpson – 71, 6 rounds
  • 17. Xander Schauffele –71, 3 rounds
  • 17. Christiaan Bezuidenhout – 71, 1 round
  • 17. Viktor Hovland – 71, 1 round
  • 17. Scottie Scheffler – 71, 1 round
  • 24. Marc Leishman – 71.2, 5 rounds
  • 25. Louis Oosthuizen – 71.25, 8 rounds
  • 26. Phil Mickelson – 71.36, 25 rounds
  • 27. Justin Rose – 71.43, 14 rounds
  • 28. Kevin Kisner – 71.5, 4 rounds
  • 28. Cameron Smith – 71.5, 4 rounds
  • 28. Bryson DeChambeau – 71.5, 4 rounds
  • 31. Fred Couples – 71.53, 30 rounds
  • 32. Jose Maria Olazabal – 71.56, 18 rounds
  • 33. Charl Schwartzel – 71.57, 7 rounds
  • 34. Stewart Cink – 71.58, 12 rounds
  • 35. Patrick Reed – 71.6, 5 rounds
  • 36. Hideki Matsuyama – 71.63, 8 rounds
  • 37. Angel Cabrera – 71.69, 13 rounds
  • 38. Henrik Stenson – 71.7, 10 rounds
  • 39. Adam Scott – 71.71, 17 rounds
  • 40. Bernd Wiesberger – 71.8, 5 rounds
  • 41. Jimmy Walker – 72, 7 rounds
  • 41. Gary Woodland – 72, 4 rounds
  • 41. Tyrrell Hatton – 72, 2 rounds
  • 41. Dylan Frittelli – 72, 1 round
  • 41. Brian Gay – 72, 1 round
  • 41. Cameron Champ – 72, 1 round
  • 41. Victor Perez – 72, 1 round
  • 48. Ian Poulter – 72.14, 14 rounds
  • 49. Kevin Na – 72.33, 6 rounds
  • 50. Zach Johnson – 72.4, 10 rounds
  • 51. Sergio Garcia – 72.43, 14 rounds
  • 52. Matt Kuchar – 72.5, 12 rounds
  • 52. Corey Conners – 72.5, 2 rounds
  • 54. Vijay Singh – 72.63, 19 rounds
  • 55. Bubba Watson – 72.64, 11 rounds
  • 56. Ryan Palmer – 72.67, 3 rounds
  • 57. Larry Mize – 72.7, 20 rounds
  • 58. Billy Horschel – 72.8, 4 rounds
  • 59. Lee Westwood – 73, 16 rounds
  • 59. Francesco Molinari – 73, 6 rounds
  • 60. Mike Weir – 73.17, 12 rounds
  • 61. Sandy Lyle – 73.71, 17 rounds
  • 62. Bernhard Langer – 73.22, 27 rounds
  • 63. Trevor Immelman – 73.3, 10 rounds
  • 64. Tommy Fleetwood – 74, 3 rounds
  • 64. Shane Lowry – 74, 2 rounds
  • 64. Collin Morikawa – 74, 1 round
  • 67. Ian Woosnam – 74.08, 13 rounds
  • 68. Martin Laird – 75, 2 rounds
  • 68. Sebastian Munoz – 75, 1 round
  • 70. Abe Ancer – 76, 1 round
  • 70. Harris English – 76, 1 round
  • 73. Matt Wallace – 77, 1 round
  • Lanto Griffin – N/A
  • Jim Herman – N/A
  • Max Homa – N/A
  • Mackenzie Hughes – N/A
  • Matt Jones – N/A
  • Jason Kokrak – N/A
  • Joaquin Niemann – N/A
  • Robert Streb – N/A
  • Hudson Swafford – N/A
  • Brendon Todd – N/A
  • Matthew Wolff – N/A
  • Joe Long – DEBUT
  • Carlos Ortiz – DEBUT
  • Charles Osborne – DEBUT
  • Tyler Strafaci – DEBUT


RELATED: Ranking the 2021 Masters Field By Augusta Scoring Average


How Bettors Can Use This Data

Slow and Steady Wins

Only three current Tour players have multiple Masters wins – Tiger Woods leads with five, Phil Mickelson has three and Bubba Watson two. And we don’t see much correlation in their spots on the final-round scoring average list. Woods is 16th, Mickelson is 26th and Watson is 55th. The pattern here is that all three players’ Sunday average is very close in-line with their overall Masters scoring average:

  • Woods – 70.95 Sunday/70.87 Overall
  • Mickelson – 71.36 Sunday/71.32 Overall
  • Watson – 72.64 Sunday/72 Overall

What this suggests is that becoming Masters champion isn’t so much about elevating your game in Round 4 as it is staying on an even keel and not allowing the magnitude of the moment to cause a performance decline. When looking to make a bet on Saturday night with a few players in contention going into Round 4, look for their Sunday scoring average relative to overall scoring average as an indication of how they’ll handle the spotlight.


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Sunday Blues

While consistent play over four rounds is always the goal, it’s much easier said than done. No one has exemplified that in recent years more than Tommy Fleetwood.

While Fleetwood has put himself in good positions, the final-round results have been exactly the same with three consecutive final rounds of 2-over 74. That’s a far cry from his overall scoring average of 71.71. Fleetwood has also shot even-par or better nine straight times in Rounds 1-3 and has been unable to keep it going Sunday for whatever reason.

Same goes for Francesco Molinari, who is 60th in final-round scoring average despite making 6 of 9 cuts – he’s shot under-par four times on Saturday and just once on Sunday. He also held a two-shot lead entering the final round in 2019 and finished T-5 following a painful 2-over 74. Be wary backing golfers who fade.

Best Masters Final Round Performers & What It Means For Bettors 1

Recency Matters

Let’s take Sergio Garcia, who had a reputation for melting down the stretch and sits 51st on the list with a Sunday scoring average of 72.43. Not ideal. But had we followed the trends, we would have been more inclined to like his chances when he co-led alongside Justin Rose entering the final round in 2017.

Garcia had traditionally been a poor Sunday performer at Augusta, breaking par just once in nine attempts from 1999-2011. But something clicked in 2012 and he broke par four straight times in the final round entering 2017. Perhaps that recent success is what finally propelled him to his first major victory with a brilliant 3-under 69 in the final round to slip on the green jacket in his 19th Masters appearance.


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Major Impact

Scoring average and final-round numbers don’t always provide an accurate portrayal. Every year at Augusta is different and scores can swing high or low based on weather and course conditions.

Circumstances always matter. Take, for example, 2008 champion Trevor Immelman. The South African held a two-shot lead entering a tough final round that would include wind gusts up to 35 mph. Only four players in the entire field broke par that day, and Immelman’s 3-over 75 was enough to hang on for the win.

Other outliers include two-time champion Jose Maria Olazabal, who checks in at No. 32 on the list at 71.56. He’s third-highest among players with at least 18 final rounds under their belts, trailing only Woods and Mickelson.

That does not mean he’s a good bet when he tees it up in future Masters. His final-round scoring average is so strong because the 55-year-old only made the cut twice in the past 11 years and last did so in 2014.

About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.