Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds: Will Kamala Take Joe Biden's Place?

By Adam Thompson

Jul 2nd, 2024 10:13 PM EST

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Behind closed doors, there were many Democratic supporters who were wary of how U.S. President Joe Biden would perform on the debate stage against former President Donald Trump. Unfortunately for the blue side, the actual results were even worse than expected.  Biden's seeming inability to string together coherent sentences – and Trump’s ability to remain calm, even if he was speaking in half-truths – caused a panic on the Democratic side.  

Before the night was over, insiders believed Democratic leaders were scrambling to decide if pressuring Biden to step down was the right thing to do. 

Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has researched the landscape and has revealed his odds for the Democrats’ name on the ballot for U.S. President – if it’s not Joe Biden.

Democratic Presidential Nominee Odds

* Odds if not President Biden. This market is for entertainment purposes only and has been created by the Bookies.com team. It is not currently available on betting apps. Percentages will not add up to 100% most time because these are designed to simulate odds a sportsbook would set.

Potential Democratic Presidential Candidates

There are a lot of political polls out there, but pretty much all the reputable ones have Trump leading Biden overall. 

The more worrying concern for Democrats is the fact that Trump has been recently shown to have leads over Biden across all the major battleground states that may ultimately decide the 2024 U.S. Elections. He likely won't need to win them all to regain the Oval Office, either. 

Biden and his family have strongly responded that he will be the Democratic nominee on the ballot come November. But nothing is guaranteed. 

First, however, it would likely take Biden to relinquish the spot. He could step aside and use health, age, or the old “spend more time with my family” line to offer up the spot to a more vibrant candidate. If he does that, Kamala Harris is likely the one to fill the spot. 

There is a line of succession with stepping sides, and the Vice President is the next one up. 

Though Biden cleaned house in primary elections, he is not officially the nominee until he is offered the role at the Democratic National Convention in August. While the odds of him not being selected by the delegates and superdelegates are very low, it’s not impossible.

It’s been 72 years since a convention was held without a nominee. The Democrats eventually named Adlai Stevenson as their candidate, and he was thumped by Dwight Eisenhower, losing the Electoral College vote 442-89. If he steps down after the convention, the 739 superdelegates, mostly made up of Democrat politicians and insiders, could vote for their nominee.

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California governor Gavin Newsom has been both a beacon of left-side politics – and often a symbol of what’s wrong with it by the red side. Few can disagree that his charismatic nature and strong-willed policies would be a greater adversary to the bulldog Trump on a debate stage. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was a Democrat until a disagreement with some of their policies and leadership pushed him into the role of independent. He was left out of the first debate but has nearly 10% of voters backing him according to some polls. He also indicated a willingness to at least listen to Democrats about the spot. 

"Of course, I would talk to them. It would put me on the ballot with nobody trying to get me off," Kennedy quipped. 

Former First Lady Michelle Obama has never been more popular since leaving the White House. One major pitfall, however: She reportedly has no interest in being president. Similarly, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer has also been mentioned as a possible successor. Whitmer says that won’t happen, but she does have supporters at the table. 

The Field includes names not in the landscape, but those who leadership may believe is in their comfort zone. That includes Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.