Kyle Busch spun twice in last week’s NASCAR race at New Hampshire, finishing 12th and extending a five-week stretch without a top-10. So why is the Joe Gibbs Racing driver the betting on NASCAR odds favorite for Sunday’s event at Pocono Raceway?

That’s because Busch has won four times at the triangular-shaped track, with all of those victories coming in the past five seasons, the most recent being last summer. In his last 11 Pocono starts, Busch has just one finish worse than ninth—perhaps one reason why his outgoing car sponsor, M&M’s, decided to put its name on this race as a form of tribute.

Busch, though, is hardly a clear favorite among top betting apps, evident in how tightly-packed the odds are among the top seven drivers on the board.

And through 20 races now, we’ve still seen just one odds favorite—Kyle Larson at Fontana in the second event of the year—end up in Victory Lane. Christopher Bell was a +1200 winner last week in the Granite State, a far more accurate barometer of how this season has gone.

M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Odds

Odds via DraftKings ➜ and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Betting Tips

Outside of Kyle Busch, three other active drivers have multiple victories at Pocono: Denny Hamlin (six), Kurt Busch (four) and Martin Truex Jr. (two). Of that group, Hamlin and Harvick have won there most recently, splitting the track’s two events in 2020. Harvick is also running the best of that bunch right now; despite his 63-race winless skid, he’s finished top-10 in eight of his last 11 starts.

William Byron owns the best career average finish at Pocono at 9.1, although he’s had a rough summer with just one top-10 finish in his last 12 starts. Overall, no one is running better right now than Chase Elliott, who’s been first or second over his last four events. The Hendrick driver has finished as high as fourth at Pocono, which he’s done three times, most recently in 2020.

Value options abound at Pocono, particularly given how fuel mileage can shuffle finishes at the 2.5-mile track. Kurt Busch may have last won at Pocono in 2016, but he placed sixth there last year and is +250 for a top-five on Sunday. Bubba Wallace, a +3000 choice to win this weekend, finished fifth at Pocono in 2021, while +2500 pick Tyler Reddick was ninth.

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M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 3 Best Bets

Martin Truex Jr. to Win, +1000

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver was close last week at Loudon, before fading to fourth off the final restart. Even if the finishes haven’t always been there, we like that Truex is leading laps again—172 last week, and 323 over his last six events. The car is fast, Truex is proving he can run consistently up front, and that first win of the season doesn’t seem that far away.

Chase Elliott Top Chevrolet, +350

Really had to argue with what we’re seeing right now from Elliott, who hasn’t finished worse than second since mid-June. Given how he’s shown speed on two ovals, a road course and a tri-oval over that span, we’d be shocked if the performance didn’t extend to the Tricky Triangle. And taking him to lead the Chevy fleet offers better value at betting sites than even a top-three.

Kevin Harvick Top Ford, +250

The Stewart-Haas racer paid off for us last week in this spot, and we’re going back to him again given his strong Pocono history. Yes, he hasn’t won in forever. The fact that he’s led just 13 laps all season doesn’t give us much faith in a breakthrough. But the Ford stable is hardly the deepest, and Harvick has been knocking out top-10s like clockwork after finally finding his footing in this new car.

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M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 Date, Time and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m.

Where: Pocono Raceway, Long Pond, Pa.

TV: USA