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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds & Picks For Season Finale 500 in Phoenix

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 21 mins

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds & Picks For Season Finale 500 in Phoenix

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Four drivers, one championship, one race. And for NASCAR bettors, one last chance to capitalize on what has been a 2022 season full of opportunity.

Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, and Joey Logano are the four drivers left vying for the title in Sunday’s Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway, with Elliott the +250 NASCAR betting odds favorite to win the race—and by extension the championship, given that the highest-finishing member of that quartet claims the crown. Pretend the rest of the field doesn’t exist; the winner Sunday will almost certainly come from that small, elite group.

The series champion has won the finale for eight years running, which includes every season since this current Championship 4 format was instituted prior to the 2017 campaign. A combination of factors plays into their hands—they got there by running well, of course, they know the route to the title is through Victory Lane, and everyone else is basically ordered to stay out of their way. So for bettors, it simply comes down to this: which of the four do you choose?

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Odds

DriverWinTop 3Top 5
Chase Elliott +250 ➜ -182 ➜ -230 ➜
Christopher Bell +350 ➜ -134 ➜ -182 ➜
Ross Chastain +400 ➜ -125 ➜ -165 ➜
Joey Logano +400 ➜ -125 ➜ -165 ➜
Kyle Larson +1400 ➜ +400 ➜ +158 ➜
Denny Hamlin +1800 ➜ +500 ➜ +191 ➜
Kevin Harvick +1800 ➜ +500 ➜ +191 ➜
Ryan Blaney +2000 ➜ +550 ➜ +215 ➜

Odds via DraftKings ➜ and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.


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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Expert Picks

Ross Chastain to Win

Odds To Win Race: +400 at DraftKings ➜

Quite simply, no member of the Championship 4 is running better right now than Chastain, who has rediscovered his early-season form with top-four finishes in his last four races on oval tracks.

His up-against-the-wall, final-lap Hail Mary at Martinsville was awesome to watch and showed he’s willing to dent some sheet metal to get the job done. While his no-holds-barred style may rub some other drivers the wrong way, it’s perfectly suited to a winner-take-all final race.

Kyle Larson Top 3

Odds To Place Top 3: +400 at DraftKings ➜

If there’s one driver outside the Championship 4 to watch, it’s Larson, who has finished first and second over the past two weeks. He’s also traditionally excellent at Phoenix, where Larson won last fall to claim the title and has finished seventh or better in six of his last seven starts.

He may be out of the running this season, but the Hendrick Motorsports driver is sending a message that he’ll be among the favorites on sports betting apps for the crown in 2023.

Tyler Reddick Top 5

Odds To Place Top 5: +515 at DraftKings ➜

It’s been feast or famine lately for Reddick, who’s crashed out of his last two starts after posting top-10 finishes in three of four races.

But it’s hard to resist that value on a driver who finished third in the season’s first Phoenix race in March, has been a contender for the majority of this season, and is very capable of closing out the Richard Childress Racing chapter of his career on a high note.


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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Betting Tips

Elliott is the odds favorite on betting sites despite limping into the finale on the heels of four consecutive double-digit finishes, the most recent a 10th-place run at Martinsville. He’s been very good at Phoenix as of late, with four finishes of seventh or better in his last five starts on the Desert Mile, a span that includes a victory in 2020. But this unpredictable season has not been good to odds favorites—none have won since Kyle Larson at Fontana, back in the second race of the year.

Bell earned his way into the title round by winning at Martinsville, his second victory in four weeks. In five career Phoenix starts, his best finish is ninth. Similarly, Chastain raced his way into the championship with a ridiculous final lap at Martinsville that vaulted him from 10th to fourth in the running order. Chastain was also the runner-up at Phoenix in the spring, in the first event on the D-shaped oval in the current next-gen car.

Logano punched his ticket to the title round with a victory three weeks ago at Las Vegas, and finished sixth at Martinsville. Among the four drivers remaining in contention for the title, Logano easily has the best track record at Phoenix—two wins, the most recent in 2020, and top-10 finishes in six of his last seven starts. And like Elliott, he has the experience of claiming a title in this format by winning the season’s final race.


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NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET

Where: Phoenix Raceway, Avondale, Ariz.


About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.
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