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NASCAR Quaker State 400 Predictions: Free Expert Picks & Best Bets For This Weekend

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 18 mins

NASCAR Quaker State 400 Predictions: Free Expert Picks & Best Bets For This Weekend

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NASCAR’s first street race produced a surprise winner when New Zealand Supercar driver Shane van Gisbergen claimed the event in Chicago’s Grant Park. 

After qualifying third and posting the fastest speed in practice, van Gisbergen saw his odds to win close at +600, which means bettors who came in late to back the road racing expert earned a nice if not extravagant payday.

Things get back to normal this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where Kyle Busch opened as the odds favorite to win at +1000 on NASCAR betting sites. 

Prior to last season, Atlanta was reconfigured with higher banking, tighter corners and a new coat of asphalt. William Byron and Chase Elliott claimed the two maiden events on the reconfigured layout last season, while Joey Logano led 140 laps to claim the first Atlanta race this year back in March.

Ryan Blaney, Ross Chastain and Elliott have earned more points than any other drivers in the three events held thus far on the reconfigured Atlanta surface, which has become known for three-wide racing in the corners and late-race drama—the margin of victory in two of those events has been under one second, while a third ended under caution. 

Those are all things to keep in mind when making your NASCAR picks.

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NASCAR Quaker State 400 Betting Preview

Kyle Busch hasn’t won at Atlanta since 2013, and he hasn’t finished better than 10th in three races on the reconfigured surface. So why is he the odds favorite? Because he’s finished ninth or better in six straight events, including a gutty fifth-place result last week at Chicago after hammering a tire barrier early in the race. 

Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers with four career victories at Atlanta, though he’s begun to backslide a little with double-digit finishes in nine of his last 10.

Elliott owns the best average finish at Atlanta among Cup regulars with more than one career start, his 10.9 bolstered by three straight top-seven finishes at the track, including a victory in the summer of 2022. (Elliott did not compete in first race this season at Atlanta due to the broken leg he suffered while snowboarding.) 

Ryan Blaney has been seventh or better in five of his last six at Atlanta, a span that includes a 2021 victory. Brad Keselowski was the runner-up in March, but his promising spring has given way to a summer slide that’s seen him finish 11th or worse in five consecutive starts.

Logano’s victory in March extended a run that’s seen him place in the top 10 in five of his last six Atlanta starts. William Byron has been top-10 in seven consecutive oval-track races but has had terrible luck at Atlanta, crashing out of two straight. 

And if you’re looking for a value selection, you can do much worse than Corey Lajoie, who has finished top-five in two of the three races held so far on the reconfigured Atlanta surface, and crashed while competing for the victory in the third.

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NASCAR Quaker State 400 Best Bets

Martin Truex Jr. To Win

Odds: +2000 at DraftKings

If you’re offering that kind of value on the points leader, we’re going to take it. Truex may have struggled at Chicago, but he’d been top-five in four straight races before that, and he’s been fantastic on ovals since breaking through with his first victory of the season at Dover in May. And while Truex has never won at Atlanta, top-10s in nine of his last 11 starts there indicate that he’s fully capable of doing so.

Chase Elliott Top 3

Odds: +300 at DraftKings

Elliott has hit his stride since returning from his broken leg, with top-10s in three straight and five of his last six. Due to his layoff, he needs a victory to qualify for the NASCAR playoffs, but has several favorable tracks ahead of him—among them Atlanta, where he placed sixth and first in his first two races on the reconfigured surface, and owns top-10s in a ridiculous seven of his nine career starts.

Corey Lajoie Top 5

Odds: +5500 at DraftKings

Lajoie was so good in the 2022 spring race, he came back from being caught up in a wreck and still managed to finish fifth. That following July, he led 19 laps and was in front with three laps remaining, but crashed battling Elliott for the win. 

This past March brought a career-best fourth-place finish at a track that’s clearly his best on the circuit. While asking for a victory might be a bit much, the past three races certainly indicate that Lajoie can contend.

Quaker State 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 7 p.m. EDT

Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hampton, Ga.

TV: USA

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About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.