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Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

By Adam Thompson | | 8 mins

2022 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Betting Predictions

2022 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Betting Predictions

The annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has become a Fourth of July tradition – and that now includes those who want to throw a few dollars on it.

Legal online sportsbooks are now taking action on the annual event, which hosts men’s and women’s contests in which competitors eat as many dogs (and buns) over 10 minutes.

The contest hasn’t been much of a contest over the years. Since the event went 10 minutes in 2008, Joey Chestnut has won the title in all but one season. He took second in 2015 but has since won them all, breaking the record in four of the last five years. His mark of 76 hot dogs in 2021 is the all-timer.

Let's take a look at our 2022 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest picks and best bets. All odds are courtesy of BetMGM and are current at time of publication.

Men's Contest

Winner Odds
Joey Chestnut -3000
The Field +1000
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Not only did Chestnut win yet-another championship belt last year, he won by a ridiculous 26 dogs. Nobody is coming close to Joey if he’s on his game.

There are two caveats with going with Chestnut. One is the price: You’d need to wager $3,000 to net $100 in profit.

Second is the risk he possibily pushes too hard to take the crown. If he goes to beat his own world record set last year, maybe he runs the risk of “regurgitation” – which is a disqualification.

Ultimately, I think the win trumps the record. Back Chestnut to win for the 14th time in 15 years.

Joey Chestnut Total Hot Dogs

Pick Odds
Over 74.5 -135
Under 74.5 +105

Last year he polished off 76 dogs, breaking the record of 75 set the year prior. He’s broken the record in five of the last six years as he pushes himself, and his internal organs, to new limits.

At some point, however, when does the human body say no more? He ate 7.6 dogs and buns per minute for 10 minutes last year and appeared highly uncomfortable doing so. Let’s roll with the Under at plus odds, with the hope he slows down at 65-70 or so with a title wrapped up.

2022 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Betting Predictions 1

Women’s Winner

Winner Odds
Miki Sudo -5000
The Field +1100
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There have only been three women’s champions since the contest debuted in 2011: Sonya Thomas won the first three until Miki Sudo dethroned her. Sudo is still unbeaten; she took the 2021 competition off due to a pregnancy (she instead worked as a color commentator for ESPN), but is back and ready to regain the title.

It’s clear that oddsmakers expect that to happen. They’re more confident in Sudo than they are in Chestnut.

Here’s why: Defending champion Michelle Lasco consumed 30 ¾ hot dogs and buns to win the title in 2021. The year before, Sudo crushed 48 ½. Lasco took second to Sudo in 2017, '18 and '19 before sitting out 2020.

No way we’re betting against Sudo, but there isn’t much incentive at these odds to back her, either.

Miki Sudo Total Hot Dogs

Pick Odds
Over 49.5 +140
Under 49.5 -190
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Oddsmakers at betting apps put the line at one above her own record, which seems plausible, especially when you see what Chestnut has done breaking his records year after year.

But Sudo has been out of the game for a full year. Also, consider that prior to downing 48.5 in 2020, she consumed 31, 37, 41, 38.5, 38 and 34. Those numbers vary wildly and none come remotely close to the record.

I would expect her focus this year to be on regaining the championship. Based on Lasco’s performances, anywhere from 35-40 should do the trick. She might do higher, but 50 is quite a reach. Take the Under here.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been estabilshed as one of the nation's premier NFL and MLB handicappers, and his horse racing and PGA picks have produced major winners over the last 12 months.