Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

By Dan Kilbridge | | 6 mins

PGA Championship Odds, Expert Picks & Top Prop Bets To Back

PGA Championship Odds, Expert Picks & Top Prop Bets To Back

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One of the most-anticipated golf betting weeks of the season is finally here. The best in the world have gathered for the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course near Charleston, South Carolina.

It’s just the second time this course has hosted the PGA Championship, with Rory McIlroy dominating the field for an eight-shot victory in 2012. It also hosted the legendary “War on the Shore” Ryder Cup match of 1991.

Collin Morikawa won the 2020 PGA Championship in August after the tournament was postponed because of COVID-19. Brooks Koepka won it back-to-back in 2018-19 at Bellerive and Bethpage Black. Both players are in the field this week but have slipped down the betting board for various reasons.

McIlroy is the betting favorite at +1150 in the latest PGA Championhip odds, coming off his impressive win two weeks ago at the Wells Fargo in Charlotte. Jon Rahm and 2017 PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas are even at +1450, while Jordan Spieth is next at +1500 after breaking his long winning drought at the Valero last month.

Reigning U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau rounds out the top five at +1650.

Top 2021 PGA Championship Odds

Player WinTop 5Top 10
Rory McIlroy+1150+250+138
Jon Rahm+1450+300+163
Justin Thomas+1450+300+163
Jordan Spieth+1500+300+163
Bryson DeChambeau+1650+350+188
Xander Schauffele+1700+350+188
Dustin Johnson+1850+400+225
Viktor Hovland+2000+400+225
Daniel Berger+3000+500+275
Collin Morikawa+3000+500+275

PGA Tour odds via DraftKings and current as of publication


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PGA Championship Expert Picks & Predictions

Paul Casey Top-10 Finish (+450)

Casey has been a forgotten man lately. But he already has four top-10s this season in 13 starts and has held his own in the big events with a T-5 at the Players Championship and T-5 at Pebble Beach.

He’s longer than most people realize at age 43, ranking 41st in average driving distance (303.2 yards). The irons are also dialed in as he ranks 10th in Strokes Gained Approach. We also love his experience playing in tough, windy conditions overseas. He’ll have a big advantage there if the wind gusts pick up.

The PGA Championship has also been Casey’s best major of late. He was T-10 in 2016 and finished T-2 last summer at TPC Harding Park. There’s plenty to like about Casey this week, and we think he’s worth a touch at +450 for a top-10 finish.


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Five Intriguing PGA Championship Props We’re Considering

Margin of Victory – Two Strokes (+350)

This is an interesting one given recent history. The past four PGA Championship winners have won by two-stroke margins, as did Jason Dufner in his 2013 victory. McIlroy won by eight shots here in 2012, the biggest margin in tournament history, and there hasn’t been a playoff since Keegan Bradley bested Dufner in 2011 at Atlanta Athletic Club. Odds for a playoff finish are +400, while a one-stroke margin of victory has the shortest odds at +225.

Hideki Matsyuma To Make (-295) or Miss (+200) The Cut

Matsuyama just teed it up for the first time since his Masters victory, with a T-39 at the Byron Nelson. These are interesting odds considering it’s been such a whirlwind month for the first-time major winner. This is the only major in which Matsuyama has never missed the cut, making the weekend in all eight starts with a T-4 finish in 2016 and T-5 in 2017.

Adam Scott To Make (-162) or Miss (+120) The Cut

Another juicy prop here with Scott’s odds indicating there’s at least a decent chance he’ll be trunk slamming on Friday. He’s currently third on Tour with 14 consecutive cuts made dating to last season, and he’s made the cut at 10 of his last 11 PGA Championships. He also finished T-11 in the 2012 PGA Championship at the Ocean Course.

Justin Thomas (-114) vs. Rory McIlroy (-114)

Even odds here for an electric matchup prop with the first and second betting favorites. Thomas conquered Quail Hollow for his first (and still only) major at the 2017 PGA Championship, while we’ve already been over McIlroy’s success here. Both have marquee wins this season, with Thomas taking the Players Championship and McIlroy winning the Wells Fargo two weeks ago. Take your pick here.

Bryson DeChambeau (-114) vs. Jordan Spieth (-114)

Two of the most entertaining characters in golf with DeChambeau and Spieth evenly matched for the festivities at Kiawah Island. DeChambeau finished T-55 last week and Spieth was T-9. DeChambeau has the big advantage with the driver at first in Strokes Gained Off The Tee, while Spieth has the irons advantage at 16th in Strokes Gained Approach The Green. Will finesse be underrated this week, with Spieth able to will himself to strong scores in tough conditions? Or is it all about raw power? We’ll find out soon enough.

Where are we headed on these props? Check out exclusive golf picks for the PGA Championship from our team of handicappers by signing up for bookiesEDGE.

PGA Championship Betting Tips

This should be the longest setup in major championship history, peaking at nearly 7,900 yards. That’s about 300 yards longer than it played in 2012, when the course set a then-record with its 7,668-yard layout.

While length is obviously big this week, accuracy is important as well. These are generous fairways, but balls that miss the target will settle in some brutal positions and make par very difficult. Water also comes into play on most every hole and precise iron shots will help players avoid the blowup holes.

Things will get really difficult if the wind blows, and taking all that into account we’re looking at a few key indicators – guys who are driving it long and straight at the moment, mentally-tough players who can handle the conditions and those with experience playing in windy seaside courses. Ballstrikers from Europe could be a strong play in general. And if a guy like DeChambeau, McIlroy, Dustin Johnson or even Brooks Koepka gets hot with the driver, they will be very tough to beat.

PGA Championship, Date & TV

When: Thursday-Sunday, May 20-23

Where: Ocean Course, Kiawah Island, S.C.


About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.