The golf betting circuit is heading south. It’s time for the Florida swing a week earlier than usual, with the annual WGC-Mexico Championship temporarily renamed to the WGC-Workday Championship and moved to The Concession in Bradenton, Florida.

This is a brute of a course, a lengthy Jack Nicklaus design with plenty of water and sloping, Bermuda greens. The Concession has never hosted a PGA Tour event, though Bryson DeChambeau did win the 2015 NCAA Championship here.

Dustin Johnson is the betting favorite at +600 in the latest WGC-Workday Championship odds, while Jon Rahm is next at +850. Xander Schauffele is +1200 and Patrick Cantlay rounds out the top four at +1600.

DeChambeau is down a bit at +1850 while last week’s Genesis Invitational winner, Max Homa, is +7000.

2021 WGC-Workday Championship Best Bets

Golf odds current as of publication and subject to change

Tommy Fleetwood (-120) over Jason Kokrak

Kokrak has been putting well all season, but the Florida swing will be different with Bermuda grass. He might not be able to rely on the flat stick as much and other shortcomings might be exposed at this course. Fleetwood has been laying low but is no stranger to difficult, Nicklaus-designed Florida tracks – he finished third in 2020 and fourth in 2018 in the Honda Classic at PGA National. We think the courses are pretty comparable. We like Fleetwood in this matchup at DraftKings.

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Sungjae Im (-135) over Scottie Scheffler

Im just took two weeks off after playing seemingly every tournament on planet Earth the past two years. It was probably a much-needed break and we love Im’s history in Florida, where he picked up his first career win last year at the Honda Classic. Scheffler has been on a great run, but we think Im will be in sharper form this week. We’re going with Im in this matchup at BetMGM.

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Matthew Fitzpatrick (-117) over Louis Oosthuizen

Approach shots will be very important into these severely undulated greens, and Fitzpatrick has been the superior irons player this season. Oosthuizen has been scrambling like a champ, which is important here, but Fitzpatrick’s numbers across the board have been very solid. Oosthuizen’s vast experience advantage also doesn’t come into play this week at a first-time course. We’re taking Fitzpatrick in this matchup at Unibet.

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Tony Finau (-115) over Viktor Hovland

It’s tempting to believe Finau can’t keep it up forever, but you’d be crazy to fade him in this matchup after three consecutive top-5 finishes and two straight runner-ups. Finau’s Strokes Gained stats were off the chart at the Genesis Invitational and there’s no indication these close calls have a big mental impact. Nothing against Hovland, but we’ll take Finau in just about every matchup we can find this week. We predict another great week and a win for Finau over Hovland at PointsBet

Sergio Garcia Top-10 Finish (+490)

Garcia is pretty far off the radar this week, but we see some positive signs. He’s played well at plenty of Nicklaus venues over the years and accuracy issues off the tee won’t hurt him here with very wide fairways. It’s a smaller field this week and we wouldn’t be surprised to see Garcia sneak up the board. We’re taking Garcia for a top-10 finish at FanDuel.

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