It’s been feast or famine lately for Kyle Larson, who has crashed out of two of his past four races and won the other two. But that hit-or-miss tendency hasn’t stopped bookmakers from establishing the Hendrick Motorsports driver as the favorite for Sunday’s event at Dover Motor Speedway—as well as the favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series title.

There’s been no such inconsistency for Larson at the high-banked mile track in the Delaware capital, where he’s finished top-10 in 11 of 14 career starts and scored a victory—not with Hendrick, but with former car owner Chip Ganassi—in 2019. 

Larson opened as a +450 NASCAR betting favorite at BetMGM, ahead of Hendrick stablemate and No. 2 NASCAR odds choice Chase Elliott at +650. Dover was one of the few places where Larson showed a clear handle on the next-gen car last season, leading 263 laps and finishing second to Alex Bowman last spring, and placing sixth in the fall.

Larson has won the two non-dirt short track races held so far this season, at Richmond and Martinsville, and the big-track-in-a-little-track nature of Dover’s bowl-shaped mile clearly suits his skill set. 

Any transition period to the current car is also well in his rearview mirror. Now we wait to see which way Larson’s tendency goes Sunday, and whether he takes the checkered flag at Dover, or takes his No. 5 car home in a box. 

Wurth 400 Odds

Odds via BetMGM and current as of publication. Check out our BetMGM Sportsbook Review. 

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Wurth 400 Betting Tips

Larson owns the best career average finish at Dover (6.9) among active drivers with more than one start, with Elliott (9.8) close behind. Elliott’s two wins at the Monster Mile include the event there last fall, and he showed no ill effects from his broken leg in leading 18 laps and finishing 12th last weekend at Talladega. 

Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch are the active win leaders at Dover with three apiece; among those, Harvick claimed the most recent triumph in the fall of 2020.

Busch hasn’t won at Dover since 2017, though he has cracked the top 10 five times in his last seven starts there. Truex last prevailed in Dover in 2019, after which he finished second in three straight starts at the Monster Mile. Larson is among four active drivers with one victory at the track, a list that also includes Bowman, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski. 

The best driver without a win at Dover is Joey Logano, whose five career top-five finishes include a fifth-place result in this event last spring. But like Hamlin and Keselowski, the reigning champion is in the midst of an inconsistent stretch that makes them a less than ideal betting option.

Dover is a unique track in how drivers dive-bomb the corners before hugging the wall in the straights, and some guys just develop a rhythm for the place. That list includes William Byron, who was fourth in back-to-back races in 2020 and 2021. 

Same with Daniel Suarez (five career top-10s, including ninth last spring) and Erik Jones (10th last fall). While big names dominate Victory Lane at Dover—the place is both physical and fast—there should be value options at betting sites further down the running order.

Wurth 400 3 Best Bets

Christopher Bell to Win

Odds: +900 at BetMGM

Wait, your best potential value option is—the points leader? Indeed that’s the case, given that Bell has just one career top-10 finish at Dover. But it came last fall, in a fourth-place run that showed his progress at the Monster Mile in the current car. 

The Joe Gibbs driver has been fantastic so far this season, with top-10s in six of his last eight starts. Like Larson, he’s another former dirt tracker developing a feel for Dover over time.

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Kyle Larson Top 3

Odds: +160 at BetMGM

Just because we’re reaching for a little value with our winner doesn’t mean we’re discounting Larson altogether. The guy has been awesome at Dover, entering on a run of four straight top-four finishes that transcends car types, team owners, and even his one-year hiatus from NASCAR. 

He’s finished top-three at Dover an amazing six times and should have more wins there. Taking the odds favorite here also serves as a bit of a hedge against our winner pick. 

Kevin Harvick Top 5

Odds: +160 at BetMGM

Despite some bobbles the past two weeks, it’s been a very competitive final season so far for the Stewart-Haas driver, who’s been top 10 in half of his 10 starts so far (one more than even Larson).

 Historically, he’s been outstanding at Dover, where he’s finished ninth or better in eight straight races. Harvick can downright dial in at Dover, where he’s led over 200 laps five times in his career, most recently in 2020. It’s a place where the former champ could score a (potentially final) victory if the right circumstances align.

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Wurth 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 2 p.m. EDT

Where: Dover (Del.) Motor Speedway

TV: FS1