David Caraviello for Bookies.com

By David Caraviello | | 8 mins

Xfinity 500 NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions

Xfinity 500 NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions

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After four waterlogged days, NASCAR finally completed its weather-plagued race at Texas Motor Speedway on Wednesday night, with Kyle Busch claiming the checkered flag (we hope you cashed our NASCAR betting recommendation of taking him top-3 at +400, by the way). Since Busch is ineligible for the title, no one clinched an automatic bid into the Championship 4.

That leaves one last chance, at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday, before the finale at Phoenix. Kevin Harvick remains the NASCAR Odds favorite for the Cup Series championship at +160. Harvick is in good shape to qualify for the title round even if he doesn’t win at Martinsville. Grab a fried bologna sandwich and a Cheerwine so we can delve into these best bets at the flat half-mile.

Xfinity 500 Odds & Best Bets

Bet Odds
Denny Hamlin to Win +550
Bet it at BetMGM
Martin Truex Jr. Top 3 -106
Bet it at Unibet
Brad Keselowski Top Ford +215
Bet it at Unibet
Chase Elliott Top Chevrolet +140
Bet it at DraftKings
Toyota Winning Manufacturer +135
Bet it at Unibet
Joe Gibbs Racing to Win +140
Bet it at DraftKings
Jimmie Johnson Top 10 +100
Bet it at DraftKings

Odds current as of publication and subject to change

Denny Hamlin to Win, +550 (BetMGM)

Hamlin picked a bad time to have a rough patch, with ninth being his best finish since his victory at Talladega a month ago. But Martinsville is his best track; he has won five times there, finished in the top five in over half his career starts, and he owns the second-best average finish behind Jimmie Johnson. It’s the ideal track for Hamlin to flip the switch and lock in his championship berth, bringing good value to bettors as a bonus. Ride with Hamlin at BetMGM.


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Martin Truex Jr. Top 3, -106 (Unibet)

The odds favorite to win at +325, Truex has claimed the past two races at Martinsville and hasn’t finished worse than eighth there since 2017. He’s also running well now, with top-10s in three of his last four, capped by a runner-up result at Texas. At 36 points below the Championship 4 cutoff, Truex probably can’t rely on math to get him into the title round — so he’ll bring some desperation to “The Paperclip.” Bet on Truex at Unibet.

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Brad Keselowski Top Ford, +215 (Unibet)

Keselowski is outstanding at Martinsville in his own right, with two career victories and a streak of five consecutive top-five finishes heading into Sunday. His odds of finishing in the top three (+155) aren’t as favorable as his odds of leading the blue oval bunch. Take the better value and feel free to double dip if you’re feeling especially bullish on a driver who enters Sunday sitting on the Championship 4 cutoff. Take these odds on the Penske ace at Unibet.

Chase Elliott Top Chevrolet, +140 (DraftKings)

Elliott has struggled to maintain momentum from his Roval victory on Oct. 11 and has slipped to 25 points below championship qualification. Among current Chevy drivers, only Johnson has been truly great at Martinsville and that was a long time ago. But Elliott has top-10s in four of his last five there. Combine that modest success with a real need to make something happen and it’s easy to see why Elliott is the most logical choice in the bow-tie camp. Wager on Elliott at DraftKings.


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Toyota Winning Manufacturer, +135 (Unibet)

Hamlin and Truex are far and away the top two candidates to win Sunday on a tight, 0.526-mile short track where it can be very difficult to pass. And don’t dismiss their stablemate Kyle Busch, who has won twice at Martinsville and finished third there last year. Plus Busch, unlike his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, has nothing to lose. Other manufacturers have more top-tier drivers, but right now at Martinsville the Toyota camp stands alone. Take Toyota with these odds at Unibet.

Joe Gibbs Racing to Win, +140 (DraftKings)

A triple-dip on Hamlin or Truex? Why not, given their recent success at Martinsville. The compounding odds are certainly appealing: A Hamlin victory pays +550, plus +135 for Toyota, plus +140 for Gibbs, while a Truex victory would cash +325, +135 and +140. That’s a lot of betting eggs in one basket, to be sure, but this might be the place to do it given how head-and-shoulders Truex and Hamlin are above everyone else. If you agree, JGR has solid odds with DraftKings.

Jimmie Johnson Top 10, +100 (DraftKings)

We’re nearing the end of the line for one of the best ever, who will certainly carry plenty of pride into his best racetrack. Between 2002 and 2013, Johnson absolutely dominated Martinsville; his nine career wins there eclipse everyone but Jeff Gordon, Richard Petty and Darrell Waltrip. Johnson finished 10th there in June, showing flashes of the old Johnson by leading 70 laps. He is capable of one last strong finish as he nears retirement. Johnson is worth a wager with DraftKings.

NASCAR at Martinsville Race Information

Race Name: Xfinity 500

When: 2 p.m. ET Sunday

Where: Martinsville Speedway, Martinsville, Virginia


About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.