David Caraviello for Bookies.com

By David Caraviello | | 16 mins

Xfinity 500 NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions

Xfinity 500 NASCAR at Martinsville Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Will the finale of the NASCAR Playoffs become a Hendrick vs. Hendrick showdown for the series title? It’s certainly trending that way, after Kyle Larson stormed to his ninth victory of the season last weekend at Kansas with teammate Chase Elliott (our pick to win) right behind him.

The performance vaulted Elliott to second in the standings and second in NASCAR championship NASCAR betting futures, his +280 trailing only Larson’s +170. And Sunday, we’re heading to the track where the reigning champion took a huge step toward last year’s crown.

That would be little Martinsville Speedway, where Elliott’s victory in last season’s penultimate event served as a springboard to his celebration in Phoenix. Although the betting sites love Martin Truex Jr. this week — the favorite in NASCAR odds has won three of the last four at the Virginia short track — it’s tough for bettors to ignore what Elliott has done at Martinsville, and what Larson is capable of anywhere.

DriverWinTop 3Top 10
Martin Truex Jr. +450 +130 -650
Kyle Larson +500 +140 -550
Chase Elliott +600 +170 -475
Denny Hamlin +650 +190 -425
Ryan Blaney +700 +200 -400
Kyle Busch +800 +230 -350
Joey Logano +850 +240 -330
Brad Keselowski +900 +260 -310

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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Xfinity 500 Expert Picks & Betting Tips

Best Bet: Chase Elliott to Win

Odds: +600 at BetMGM

No question Larson is a machine right now, closing in on a 10-win mark that hasn’t been reached in a single season since the great Jimmie Johnson last did it in 2007. But the unmatched speed in his No. 5 car will be offset by the close confines of half-mile Martinsville, where it’s all about brake wear and rhythm.

Elliott has been excellent at Martinsville for much of his career, finishing worse than ninth just once in his last seven starts there, and following his victory last November with a runner-up result in April. And the kid can be absolutely clutch, as he showed last year; at 34 points above the elimination line this time around, he may not need a win to get into the Championship 4, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt. Bet on him at BetMGM.

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Xfinity 500 Betting Tips

While Kyle Larson has been good but not great at Martinsville, his relevant sample size is very small: just one start with Hendrick, a fifth-place finish in April. As we’ve learned over the course of these NASCAR Playoffs, never underestimate the guy. And Truex occupying the top odds spot means bettors get a little more value at sportsbooks on a driver who’s been absolutely dominant over the past month. It’s quite understandable if all that’s tough to pass up.

What about Martin Truex? No question, his recent record at Martinsville, where he’s finished worse than eighth just once in his last eight starts there, a stretch that includes three victories, is outstanding.

But Truex’s seventh-place finish last week at Kansas was also his first in single-digits since Las Vegas four weeks earlier. He just hasn’t shown the week-to-week performance of the drivers at the top of the standings, he’s dropped to sixth in the standings as a result, and he’s facing the pressure Sunday of likely having to win to ensure a place in the Championship 4.

The best active driver at Martinsville has been Denny Hamlin, who leads his peers in wins (five) and average finish (9.7) at the Paperclip. But Hamlin last won at Martinsville in 2015, and recent results are dotted with his trademark inconsistency. We’re watching another win-to-get-in driver, Joey Logano. He’s finished eighth or better in six of his last seven at Martinsville, and his only poor finish over the last month was due to an engine failure at Texas. Our three best bets: Elliott to win at +600, Larson top-3 at +140, and Logano top Ford at +260.

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Xfinity 500 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 2 p.m.

Where: Martinsville (Va.) Speedway

TV: NBC

About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.