Through five weeks of the 2023 XFL season, there are five teams with winning records and three teams with one win or less. But scores haven’t indicated a huge gap between best and worst. 

While Week 4 featured three games decided by 13 points or more, just two other games all season have had margins of victory that big. In two of the past three weeks, the averaging winning margin has been just 5.0 ppg. 

The winless Orlando Guardians account for the three biggest blowout scores. Every game not featuring the Guardians has been decided by two TDs or less. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on 62.5% of his XFL picks so far (10-6). Here he breaks down the XFL Week 6 schedule and offers his Week 6 XFL best bets. 

XFL Week 6 Picks

Day	Matchup	Pick
Saturday	Seattle Sea Dragons at Orlando Guardians	Sea Dragons -9.5
Saturday	St. Louis BattleHawks at Vegas Vipers	BattleHawks - 3
Sunday	San Antonio Brahmas at Arlington Renegades	Under 33
Monday	Houston Roughnecks at D.C. Defenders	Roughnecks -2.5

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Saturday, March 25

Seattle Sea Dragons at Orlando Guardians (+9.5, 42.5)

This is a big point spread in XFL betting, but the Guardians have been blown out in all three of their games against top competition. Seattle is 3-2 and while it isn’t blowing out teams, the Dragons rank No. 2 in passing and No. 2 in rushing. 

Given Orlando’s horrid defense and Seattle’s potential-laden offense, this looks like another dent in Orlando’s -16.2 ppg scoring margin. 

Pick: Sea Dragons -9.5

St. Louis BattleHawks at Vegas Vipers (+3, 44.5)

The Vipers’ defense gives up the most yards per game by a wide margin. What it lacks in defense it makes up, to some extent, with an offense that can move the ball.

But the BattleHawks have handled the lesser teams. They’re 3-2, with single-digit defeats to the division-leading Defenders twice, and they are 3-0 vs. everyone else. Only one Vegas game since Week 1 was decided by less than three points, and that was a narrow 35-32 win over the winless Guardians for its lone victory. 

Pick: BattleHawks -3

Sunday, March 26

San Antonio Brahmas at Arlington Renegades (-3, 33)

An Over/Under of 33 on sports betting apps? That is ridiculously low. The issue is, these teams still give us no reason to take the Over. Arlington is the XFL’s worst team when it comes to both passing and rushing. San Antonio isn’t much better. Combined, the teams average 27.6 ppg. 

But they only allow 33.0 ppg combined as well. These teams played each other last week, a brutal 12-10 slogfest won by the Renegades. The last three Arlington games averaged just 25.3 ppg. Only one SA game has gone over 35 this season. 

Pick: Under 33

Monday, March 27

Houston Roughnecks at D.C. Defenders (-2.5, 42)

At this rate, this could be a prelude to the championship game in May. The Defenders are the lone remaining unbeaten team, the Roughnecks are the only 4-1 squad and lead the XFL in most points scored and least points allowed. 

The Over is enticing. The matchups and gameplans suggest each side is going to be successful in doing what it likes to do (D.C. leads the XFL in rushing, Houston is No. 2 in passing). But D.C.’s defensive issues, and Houston’s stout run game, gives the Roughnecks the edge. 

Pick: Roughnecks -2.5

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