UFC Mexico Odds, Picks, Predictions & UFC Best Bets for Moreno vs. Kavanagh

Feb 24th, 2026 9:50 AM EST

brandon-moreno (Photo by Louis Grasse/PxImages)

The Octagon heads to Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, this Saturday for UFC Houston. The card features 14 fights overall, including a five-round middleweight headliner between top contenders Anthony Hernandez and Sean Strickland. In the latest edition of the Bookies.com Best Bets, we will give our pick for the main event plus two of the undercard contests.

Favorite	Underdog
Brandon Moreno -218	Lone’er Kavanagh +180

UFC odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings Sportsbook Review.

UFC Houston Main Event Best Bet

Brandon Moreno (-218) vs. Lone’er Kavanagh (+180)

The main event of UFC Mexico is a five-round flyweight bout between Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh. Moreno is a -218 favorite, and I fully expect him to get his hand raised in his home country once again.

Moreno is 32, and he is 11-6-2 in the UFC. The Mexican is the former two-time UFC flyweight champion, and a sure-fire UFC Hall of Famer when it’s all said and done. He has been at the top of the weight class for many years, and he always puts on exciting fights for the fans. He might be slipping a bit, as he’s lost three of his last five fights, but he has been fighting elite competition, so it’s hard to say if it’s on the decline or if he’s just fighting really difficult matchups. Either way, he is still a massive star in Mexico and will fight in his home country in this bout against a prospect in Kavanagh, who is stepping up here on short notice after Asu Almabayev pulled out. It represents a good opportunity for Moreno to bounce back after his last fight, which was a TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira, the first time in Moreno’s career that he was finished by TKO.

Kavanagh is 26, and he is 2-1 in the UFC. The Brit debuted in the UFC in 2024 and quickly burst onto the scene with two straight wins over Jose Ochoa and Felipe Dos Santos to open up his career inside the Octagon. He was then matched up with Charles Johnson, and after winning the first round of the fight, he began to tire and was knocked out in the second round. Despite the loss, Kavanagh remains a top prospect at 125 lbs, and the UFC is clearly very high on him as he is getting this opportunity to fight one of the division’s top fighters in Moreno. That being said, this is a big jump up in his level of opposition, and it won’t be an easy fight at all.

Kavanagh is an awesome prospect, but this is a massive step up in competition, especially for a young fighter coming off a brutal knockout loss who is taking this fight on short notice. I like Moreno to win this fight, using his experience, wrestling, and cardio to push a pace that Kavanagh can’t keep up with. Look for Moreno to win on the scorecards as a -218 favorite.

UFC Mexico Best Bet: Brandon Moreno wins at -218 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Other UFC Mexican Best Bets

David Martinez (-290) vs. Marlon Vera (+235)

In the co-main event, we have a bantamweight tilt featuring David Martinez and Marlon Vera. Martinez is a -290 favorite, and I believe he will win his third straight fight in the UFC.

Martinez is 28, and he is 2-0 in the UFC. The Mexican, who is also a full-time medical doctor, made his UFC debut last year, and since then, he has impressed with wins over Rob Font and Saimon Oliveira. Martinez is a fantastic striker who is fast on his feet, and he also has superb defense. He is one of the new breed of bantamweight prospects who have been lighting up a storm in the UFC as of late, and if he beats Vera, it will put him into the division’s elite class.

Vera is 33, and he is 15-10 in the UFC. The Ecuadorian has been in the UFC since 2014 and has been one of the top bantamweights in the sport ever since, accumulating eight bonuses along the way. Not to mention he has notable knockout wins over the likes of UFC Hall of Famers Dominick Cruz and Frankie Edgar, plus former champ Sean O’Malley. That being said, while Vera has had a great run overall inside the Octagon, he appears to have hit a decline in his MMA career. Vera has lost three straight fights and four of his last five bouts, and he hasn’t been very competitive in those outings. He has been taking quite a bit of damage in his recent outings, and going up against Martinez, it certainly doesn’t get any easier for him here.

Martinez is one of the top bantamweights right now, while Vera has seen better days. Look for Martinez to beat Vera to the punch for 15 minutes and take this fight by a clear decision. Bet on Martinez to win as a -290 favorite.

UFC Mexico Best Bet: David Martinez wins at -290 with DraftKings Sportsbook

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Edgar Chairev (-325) vs. Felip Bunes (+260)

We also have a flyweight bout between Edgar Chairez and Felipe Bunes slated to take place at this event. Chairez is a -325 favorite, and I believe he wins this fight.

Chairez is 30, and he is 2-2, 1 NC in the UFC. The Mexican made his UFC debut in 2023 and lost to Tatsuro Taira, who right now is one of the best flyweights in the sport. Since that tough debut, Chairez has fought four more times, only losing one of those fights, against current UFC flyweight champion Joshua Van. Chairez is a finisher who has won all 12 of his career victories by stoppage, including two submission wins in the UFC. He is an extremely dangerous fighter who is a lot of fun to watch, and he has a good chance here to pick up a win in front of his fans.

Bunes is 36, and he is 1-2 in the UFC. The Brazilian lost his UFC debut to the aforementioned Van by knockout, but rebounded with a submission win over Jose Johnson his next time out, before suffering a decision loss to Rafael Estevam in his last outing. Bunes possesses dangerous submission skills, but otherwise is rather limited as a fighter. Not to mention, he is one of the oldest fighters in the division, and it all adds up to what is going to be a tough fight.

Chairez is one of the most underrated flyweights in the UFC, while Bunes is a guy who will likely be cut if he loses this fight, which I expect will be the case. Look for Chairez to put on a great show in front of his home crowd and get a finish. Take Chairez to win as a -325 favorite.

UFC Mexico Best Bet: Edgar Chairez wins at -325 with DraftKings Sportsbook

About the Author

Adam Martin

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A writer based out of Toronto, Adam Martin has covered professional sports, with an emphasis on sports gambling, for more than a decade, writing for such outlets as The Toronto Star and Sportsnet. He is an expert in UFC, while also covering NHL betting and the Stanley Cup.