The Octagon is back at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday night for UFC Vegas 77: Holm vs. Silva. The main event features former UFC women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm taking on surging contender Mayra Bueno Silva. 

Plus, there are 13 undercard bouts on the docket. We’ll break down the main event of the evening in further detail plus two of the preliminary card bouts in the latest edition of the Bookies.com UFC picks.

UFC Vegas 77 Main Event Best Bet

Holly Holm (-155) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+135)

In the main event of UFC Vegas 77, Holly Holm faces off against Mayra Bueno Silva in a five-round women’s bantamweight bout. Holm is listed as a -155 betting apps favorite, and I like her to get the win in this fight.

Holm is the former UFC women’s bantamweight champion. The 41-year-old veteran has won three of her last four fights, including a dominant win over Yana Santos in her last outing. 

Not only is Holm one of the finest strikers we have ever seen in the UFC women’s bantamweight division, but she has also turned into quite an effective wrestler over the years. Eventually, she will slow down and start showing her age, but we really haven’t seen that yet. As long as she fights a smart fight here and doesn’t make any big mistakes, she should be able to get the W.

Silva is an intriguing prospect at 135lbs since she is 3-0 since moving up to this weight class. At just 31, she is still very much in her prime. The Brazilian has won her last three fights in a row including two of those wins coming by submission. She has a nasty ground game, with her kneebar one of her best moves. 

As well, she has dangerous striking and is getting better in that area of the game. She is a very good fighter who is improving every time we see her fight, and if she is able to get out there and beat Holm, it would push her into the elite of the 135lbs division.

Even though Holm is 41, she is still fighting at a high level. Silva has looked great in her last three fights, but Holm is a big step up in competition. In this fight, I see Holm being the more effective striker and the more effective grappler over the course of 25 minutes and edging this fight out on the scorecards. Give me Holm to win at -155, and take her by decision for a prop.

UFC Vegas 77 Best Bet: Holly Holm wins at -155 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC Vegas 77 Best Prop Bet: Holly Holm wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook  

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Other UFC Vegas 77 Best Bets

JunYong Park (-150) vs. Albert Duraev (+130)

In the co-main event, JunYong Park takes on Albert Duraev at middleweight. Park is a -150 favorite, and I like him to get his hand raised in this fight.

Park has a solid 6-2 record in the UFC, and he has won six of his past seven fights overall. The 32-year-old South Korean native is an excellent grappler who has been able to take most of his UFC opponents down to the ground and either submit them or drown them out with his wrestling. 

His striking is also serviceable, and he has very good cardio as well. Overall, Park is just a very well-rounded middleweight who has the ability to beat a lot of opponents in the UFC. Against Duraev, it makes sense he is the favorite here given his more well-rounded skill set.

Duraev, meanwhile, has been quite disappointing despite having a 2-1 record in the promotion. The 34-year-old Russian won a close decision over Roman Kopylov in his UFC debut before getting finished via TKO by Joaquin Buckley. Then, he won a narrow split decision over Chidi Njokuani. 

I think the biggest problem with Duraev is that he came to the UFC a bit too late in his career. Had he arrived five years ago, he would be more successful. But given he is now in his mid-30s, it’s hard to see him making the improvements necessary to become a top-15 fighter.

Park is one of the most underrated middleweights in the UFC, and Duraev has been disappointing so far inside the Octagon. I like Park to grind out Duraev with his wrestling, drag him into deep waters, and get the job done on the judges’ scorecards. Give me Park to win this fight as a -150 betting favorite, and I’ll take him to win the fight by decision for a prop bet.

UFC Vegas 77 Best Bet: JunYong Park wins at -150 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC Vegas 77 Best Prop Bet: JunYong Park wins by decision at DraftKings Sportsbook  

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Evan Elder (-295) vs. Genaro Valdez (+245)

On the preliminary card, Evan Elder fights Genaro Valdez in a lightweight bout. Elder is a hefty -295 favorite to win, and I like him to get the job done in an impressive fashion with a knockout.

Elder is 26 years old and he is 0-2 in the UFC so far. He lost a decision to Preston Parsons up a weight class on short notice, and then he lost via TKO due to a cut against Nazim Sadykhovin a fight he was winning before the doctor stopped the bout. Overall, he has performed well in the UFC and he still has more to give. 

He is a young, talented, and dangerous striker and it will be exciting to see him progress his UFC career, although this is likely a must-win fight for him.

As for Valdez, he is also 0-2 in the UFC but he just has not performed well. The 31-year-old Mexican lost via KO to Matt Frevola in his UFC debut before dropping a unanimous decision to Natan Levy in his second fight. 

He has not looked good at all in the Octagon and it’s difficult to trust him going forward. Both his striking defense and his takedown defense are quite poor, so it’s hard to see him winning many fights in the UFC unless he basically lands a lucky punch.

Elder is a fantastic striker with power, while Valdez has terrible striking defense and a very questionable chin. Look for Elder to land big shots on Valdez and turn his lights off in the first round of this fight. I’m going with Elder at -295 to win, and I like him to win by TKO for a prop.

UFC Vegas 77 Best Bet: Evan Elder wins at -295 at DraftKings Sportsbook  

UFC Vegas 77 Best Prop Bet: Evan Elder wins by TKO at DraftKings Sportsbook