Turner's Novices' Hurdle Trends For The 2025 Cheltenham Festival

Need some help finding the winner of the 2025 edition of the Turner's Novices’ Hurdle when visiting the best horse racing betting sites? Well, look no further because our team of experts at Bookies.com have done the hard work for you by pinpointing the most critical trends and pointers from the last 10 renewals in order to help you find the winner of this hot novice contest.

2025 Turner's Novices' Hurdle Trends

The last 10 winners:

• Had won 1-3 hurdle races
• Had won on a left-handed course
• Had at least two wins on a galloping track
• Had run at least twice over hurdles
• Had won if they had run at Cheltenham before
• Last ran at least 31 days ago
• Finished in the top two last time out (only one lost, Windsor Park)
• Did not run in a handicap last time out, most ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle
• Had won a bumper*

*The last winner who had not won a bumper was No Refuge in 2005, but he had 14 runs on the Flat instead. Additionally the 2004 winner Funamentalist had no bumper win, but was three wins from seven runs in point-to-points.

Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Had won over at least 2m4f (exception Sir Gerhard had only run over 2m)
• Had won at least two hurdle races (Windsor Park)
• Had not been beaten more than once over hurdles (Windsor Park)

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Were aged six. (Sir Gerhard 7, Impaire Et Passe 5)

Key Trials From the Last 10 Years

The winner of Leopardstown's Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle in February tends to run in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, but the three most recent winners that have lined up in this race have won (Samcro, Sir Gerhard and Ballyburn). Leopardstown seconds' won in 2015 and finished second in 2020 and 2022. Notably, the winner of this race has gone on to win a Cheltenham Festival novices' hurdle next time out six times in the last 10 years. Kopek Des Bordes won this year but is likely to run in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

The winner of the Grade 1 Slaney Novice Hurdle at Naas in January has won two of the last four Turner's Novices' Hurdles - Envoi Allen and Bob Olinger. The winner placed in 2023, 2018, 2013 and 2012. The Yellow Clay won this year but could line up in the Albert Bartlett instead.

The Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle at Haydock has proven a key trial in Britain with winners of this race placing in the Turner's Novices' Hurdle in 2016 and 2017 and a Rossington second placing in 2019. It is a stronger Supreme trial but was won by Dedicated Hero

Four Grade 1 Challow Novices' Hurdle winners have been placed in the last 10 renewals (Bravemansgame, Champ, Messire Des Obeaux, Parlour Games). Last year's winner was The New Lion.

Trainer Trends

• Willie Mullins is the winning-most trainer with seven wins in total, five of which have come in the last decade. In 2023, he saddled the first three home and last year had the first five home out of seven runners.
• Gordon Elliott has won two of the last seven renewals, saddling the one-two in 2020 and a second in 2022.
• Nicky Henderson has a poor record with one winner and one placed horse from 13 runners in the past 12 years.
• Paul Nicholls has had four runners in the last 14 years and two placed.
• Nine of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland

Jockey Trends

Given the strong recent records of Irish powerhouses Mullins and Elliott, it goes without saying that close attention needs to be paid to their respective riders, especially when they have a choice of mounts in the race.

How Did the Trends do Last Year?

Winner Ballyburn ticked all the trends boxes, so it was probably no wonder he went off as 1/2 favourite on the day. He duly romped home by 13 lengths as possibly the most impressive winner of the week for Mullins and Townend.

Who Fits The Trends Best In 2025?

Applying the Turner's Novices' Hurdle trends to this year's entries, whittles the field down to just three key trends picks: Final Demand, The New Lion and Sixmilebridge.

Final Demand is the outstanding trends pick being a Mullins runner and ticking virtually all boxes, with the one key exception that he has never run in bumpers so would be the first winner of the race since 2005 to have never run in a bumper.

The New Lion has a key trial on his CV, winning the Challow Novices' Hurdle in December convincingly, which might be the only mark against him. The race was in December, but the horse has shown that he can go fresh.

One of the slightly bigger priced horses to consider is Sixmilebridge, who hits every key trend with the added bonus of having raced and won at Cheltenham when easily beating Potters Charm to win the Grade 2 Classic Novices' Hurdle.

2024 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle Result