Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends For The 2026 Cheltenham Festival

By Oliver Lines

Feb 24th, 2026 1:13 PM EST

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Picking out the winner of a race like the Cheltenham Gold Cup is not an easy task, but trends can seriously help narrow down the field when using your Cheltenham free bets! We've worked out the most important Gold Cup trends from the last 10 editions of the race for you and used them to find the best horses to follow right now for the 2026 running of this famous chase.

2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

The last 10 winners:

• Were aged no older than nine (last winner aged 10 or more was 1998).
• Had run at Cheltenham before.
• Had run in at least three chases.
• Had won at least two chases.
• Had won a Grade 1 before.
• Had won on a left-handed track.
• Had not run for at least 33 days before the Gold Cup, but had run at least once that season.
• Last ran in Ireland or at Newbury.
• Did not wear blinkers, a hood or similar, though Don Cossack and A Plus Tard wore tongue ties.

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Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Won last time out or were beaten no more than a short head, or last won at the last Cheltenham Festival (exception Minella Indo finished sixth).
• Had won over at least 3m before (Al Boum Photo's 2019 win was his first over more than 2m5f).
• Had run in at least five chases (Inothewayurthinkin had run in nine).
• Were officially rated 164 or higher (Inothewayurthinkin was rated 160).

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Must be 21+ to participate (18+ in KY). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, IA, KY, KS, LA, MD, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). CALL 1-877-770-STOP (LA). Must be present in LA (select parishes). Licensee partner Amelia Belle Casino. Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customer only. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.

Key Trials in the last 10 years

Five of the last 10 winners last ran in the Grade 1 Irish Gold Cup in February at Leopardstown (Sizing John, Minella Indo and Galopin Des Champs twice, Inothewayurthinkin), though only Sizing John and Galopin Des Champs won both, despite nine of the last 10 Irish Gold Cup winners next running in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. This year's winner was Fact To File.

The winner of the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury in February has followed up once in the last 10 years (Native River. Coneygree did it 11 years ago). Only four winners have attempted the Gold Cup in the last 10 years, achieving those two wins and two thirds. Haiti Couleurs won in 2026 for Rebecca Curtis.

Traditionally, the Grade 1 King George VI Chase in December has been a good trial, but its last winner was Long Run in 2011. Five runners have been placed since (Lostintranslation, Bristol De Mai, Might Bite, Long Run and Bravemansgame). The Jukebox Man won in 2025.

The Grade 2 Cotswold Chase in January at Cheltenham has only produced one placed horse in the past 10 years (Santini). Eight winners in that period have next run in the Gold Cup. Spillane's Tower was the 2026 winner.

2022 winner A Plus Tard revived what was once among the most popular last runs of Cheltenham Gold Cup winners when winning the Savills Chase in December before his Festival victory. Synchronised went this route in 2012, as did War Of Attrition in 2006 and the mighty Best Mate did too before his third and final Gold Cup win in 2004. Nine of the last 10 winners of this Leopardstown Grade 1 have run in the Gold Cup that season, gaining five placings and two wins. Affordale Fury won in 2025, but has run since.

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Trainer Trends

No modern trainer has saddled more than Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins' four winners each. Mullins has won four of the last seven Gold Cups, while Nicholls' last success came in 2009, with Kauto Star. Trainers based in Ireland have won the last seven renewals and nine of the last 10.

Henry De Bromhead saddled the first two home in the 2022 and 2021, Minella Indo beating A Plus Tard in 2021 and the roles being reversed in 2022. He also saddled Monalee to be fourth in 2020 and has only had nine runners in the race. 

Willie Mullins' first Gold Cup winner was Al Boum Photo in 2019, and he followed up in 2020, finishing third in 2021. That was his sixth placed runner in the race in the last 10 years. Galopin Des Champs won in 2023 and 2024, before coming up short last season.

Gordon Elliott also has a good record, with one winner (Don Cossack) from eight runners. Conflated finished third for him in 2023, while Gerri Colombe was second a couple of years ago.

Nicky Henderson has not saddled a winner since Bobs Worth in 2013, though he doesn't always send a horse to the race and will have Jango Baie this year.

Jockey Trends

Thanks to Al Boum Photo and Galopin Des Champs, Paul Townend is the only current jockey to win the race more than once in recent history.

Nico de Boinville won the race on Coneygree in 2015 and very nearly doubled up on the fast-finishing Santini in 2020.

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How did the trends do last year?

Applying the key Gold Cup trends to the 2025 Gold Cup entries whittled the field down to just two contenders: Galopin Des Champs and Banbridge

Both trained in Ireland, they were the right age and profile for the Gold Cup. However, it was another Irish-trained runner who was a real trend-buster.

Inothewayurthinkin took Gold Cup honours on just his tenth chase start. He was also among the lowest-rated in the race, with a mark of 160. While he did meet a lot of the criteria, he was ruled out strictly based on trends.

2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup Result

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Who Fits The Trends Best In 2026?

All of the trends for this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup point towards two horses, both of whom are trained by Willie Mullins.

Fact To File was a scintillating winner of the Ryanair Chase at last year's Festival, and ticks every box from the 'all of the last 10 winners' category. The same applies to his stablemate, Gaelic Warrior.

Sticking strictly to what every winner from the last decade has done, every other horse can be ruled out based on their age, where their last run was or their rating. Ironically, Fact To File isn't entered in the Gold Cup at the time of writing and Gaelic Warrior may end up in the Ryanair. If either one of them lines up here, they'll have trends very much on their side.

2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds

Cheltenham Festival 2026 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

• Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Arkle Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Ultima Handicap Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Mares' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Hurdle Trends
• Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Trends
• National Hunt Novices' Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

• Turners Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends
• Coral Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Chase Trends
• Grand Annual Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Bumper Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

• Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase
• Pertemps Final Trends
• Ryanair Chase Trends
• Stayers' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Festival Plate Handicap Trends
• Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends

• Triumph Hurdle Trends
• County Hurdle Trends
• Mares' Chase Trends
• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Trends
• Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Trends

About the Author

Oliver Lines

More About Oliver

Oliver has been involved in sports betting writing since 2017 and has covered all manner of events during that time, including football, NFL, golf, cricket, and horse racing. It’s no surprise, that he holds an interest in most sports and loves finding underappreciated markets to have a punt on. Oliver also has years of experience on the casino side of things and can spot a poor bonus from a mile away.

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