Kim Muir Trends for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival

By James Stoddart

Feb 25th, 2026 9:34 AM EST

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2026 Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends

The getting out race on Thursday, the Kim Muir is a handicap chase run over more than three miles that is limited to amateur riders. A tricky race to identify the winner, with everything from a 13/8 favourite to two 40/1 shots picking up the spoils in the last 10 years. Our trends can help you narrow down the field to a small number of potential winners and help you get a return from those Cheltenham free bets.

The last 10 winners:

• Had not won the Kim Muir before.
• Were rated on average 139, with no winner rated more than 145 (the limit), or less than 131.
• Had won no more than three chases overall, if any.
• Had finished in the first three no more than four runs ago.
• Had run at least twice that season, but no more than five times.
• Had run at least four times over hurdles and had won up to five times, but generally only once or twice.
• Last ran no more than 60 days ago.

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Nine of the last 10 winners:

• Did not win last time out - but six of the last eight finished in the first three (Chambard won).
• Had not won more than once that season, seven had no wins (Chambard won three times).
• Had won no more than one handicap chase, eight won none (Chambard had won three).
• Were not French-bred (Chambard).
• Were not older than nine (10-year-old Chambard).
• Had not won at Cheltenham before, including all of the last nine winners (Cause Of Causes).

Eight of the last 10 winners:

• Had run in at least five chases overall (exceptions; Mount Ida ran in three, Inothewayurthinkin four).
• Had run over 3m or further at least once (Milan Native, Inothewayurthinkin).

Seven of the last 10 winners:

• Had run in at least two handicap chases (Mount Ida & Milton Native none, Inothewayurthinkin one).
• Wore headgear, a tongue tie, or both in the race (Chambard, Angels Dawn, Inothewayurthinkin).
• Had never won a Graded race (Mount Ida, Any Second Now, Daily Present).
• Carried 11st 1lbs or more (Angels Dawn 11st, Chambard 10st 12lbs, Daily Present 10st 7lbs).

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Key Trials in the Last 10 Years

With Cheltenham's handicaps, it's often better to look down the field in the popular trials, rather than at the winner, but we've given you the winners below as a guide.

The Grade B Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown's Christmas Festival has produced two of the last 10 winners (Any Second Now and Spring Heeled). Favori De Champdou won this in 2025, but he is one of the favourites for the cross country.

The Grade B Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase at Limerick's Christmas Festival has produced one winner (Domesday Book). Ballybawn Belter won the 2025 renewal, beating Uncle Pat.

In 2018 Missed Approach used Warwick's Classic Chase as a springboard to Kim Muir victory. This had also been contested by 2008 winner High Chimes. My Silver Lining won this in 2024, beating Galia Des Liteaux. The race has been abandoned the last two years due to unsuitable ground.

2020 winner Milan Native was stepping up markedly in trip at the festival having stuck to his task when second in a beginners’ chase at Gowran Park the previous month. 2024 winner Inothewayurthinkin was also a novice who was stepping up in trip, and 2021 winner Mount Ida ticket the novice box.

Trainer Trends

In the last 15 years David Pipe has saddled 24 runners in the Kim Muir, with two winners and two placed horses. He loves this race and is always worth following.

Gordon Elliott is emerging as a trainer to follow too. Elliott has landed two of the last 10 editions as well as saddling six placed horses.

Nicky Henderson has won the race three times, but his last victory came back in 2005.

Jockey Trends

This race is confined to amateur riders, though professionals rode all the 2021 runners due to pandemic restrictions placed on amateur sports people.

Jamie Codd has won two of the last 10 runnings of the Kim Muir for two different trainers, but he has now retired.

Derek O'Connor now looks like the amateur of choice. He has won the race twice in the last seven years from six attempts, also for two different trainers. 2024's winner Inothewayurthinkin was backed into 13/8 favourite from around 12/1 once it was confirmed he was riding. He was on board favourite Johnnywho last year, finishing second. Pay close attention to whatever he rides in the race for JP McManus.

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How Did the Trends do Last Year?

After the complete trends bust of Chambard in 2022, Angels Dawn was not a perfect trends fit in 2023 either. After 10 winners all wore a tongue tie or head gear, Chambard and Angels Dawn wore nothing as did the 2024 winner Inothewayurthinkin.

Daily Present in 2025 did at least present a winner who fit most of the trends. However, he carried less weight that typically seen and had never won a Graded race before. The best trends fit of the field appeared to be Sa Majeste, who came home in third.

2025 Kim Muir Handicap Chase Result

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Who Fits The Trends Best In 2026?

This is among the trickiest Cheltenham handicaps to predict this far out, but of those at the head of the betting, the horse to keep an eye on is probably Waterford Whispers. This 137-rated horse is owned by JP McManus and fits all key recent trends with the exception of not wearing any headgear,

Last year's winner Daily Present could be a better trends pick this year than last. Outside of having won a Graded race (this very one), he fits all the key criteria.

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2026 Kim Muir Challenge Cup Odds

Cheltenham Festival 2026 Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day One Trends

• Supreme Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Arkle Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Trends
• Ultima Handicap Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Festival Plate Handicap Trends
• National Hunt Novices' Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Two Trends

• Turners Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Brown Advisory Novices' Chase Trends
• Coral Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Cross Country Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Chase Trends
• Grand Annual Chase Trends
• Cheltenham Champion Bumper Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Three Trends

• Cheltenham Mares' Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Jack Richards Novices' Limited Handicap Chase
• Cheltenham Mares' Hurdle Trends
• Stayers' Hurdle Trends
• Ryanair Chase Trends
• Pertemps Final Trends
• Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends

Cheltenham Festival Day Four Trends

• Triumph Hurdle Trends
• County Hurdle Trends
• Mares' Chase Trends
• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Trends
• Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
• Cheltenham Foxhunter Chase Trends
• Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle Trends

About the Author

James Stoddart

More About James

Born in Liverpool, James is an LFC fan and season ticket holder. He's got an interest in playing and watching most sports including golf, darts, football and horse racing. As a keen punter, he's always on the lookout for value and loves spotting something at a big price that fits the trends. He applies this to online casino too, and is always looking to beat the house.

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