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Arkansas at Alabama Football Picks, Predictions & Betting Preview

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 6 mins

Arkansas at Alabama Football Picks, Predictions & Betting Preview

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The Arkansas Razorbacks have slipped back into the national rankings after a pair of close victories over SEC West opponents, but traveling to Alabama this weekend there’s another score that looms larger: The 37-0 pasting Georgia put on the Hogs on Oct. 30.

That was the result the last time Arkansas played a legitimate national title contender, which the Crimson Tide certainly seems to be. For all the progress the Razorbacks have made under Sam Pittman, victories over the SEC’s elite have remained few and far between - evidenced in the fact that the Hogs will be a three-touchdown underdog Saturday in Tuscaloosa.

Of course, it did take everything the Tide had to sneak by LSU two weeks ago as 30-point favorites, proof that surprises can happen in college football betting. But then again, Arkansas has lost to Alabama 14 straight times, with only three of those margins being in the single digits.

Odds subject to change.

Arkansas vs Alabama Key Matchups

Arkansas’ offensive vs. Will Anderson Jr.: The Crimson Tide linebacker is one of the best in college football at getting to opposing quarterbacks, leading the nation with 12 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss.

Arkansas’ secondary against Bryce Young: The Alabama offense is being carried largely by quarterback Young, whose 70.9 completion rate ranks seventh nationally and whose 33 passing touchdowns rank third.

Treylon Burks vs. Jalyn Armour-Davis: Burks is Arkansas’ primary pass-catching threat, responsible for 34.8 percent of all Hogs receptions. Armour-Davis is Alabama’s best corner, with three interceptions and three pass breakups.

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5 Key Arkansas vs Alabama Stats

90-5: Alabama’s home record since the 2008 season.

44.6: Alabama’s average points scored per game, which ranks third nationally.

27.6: Alabama’s average margin of victory over Arkansas during its 14-game winning streak in the series.

1-5: Arkansas’ record against top-10 opponents in two seasons under Pittman, the exception being an upset of then-No. 7 Texas A&M earlier this year.

10-4: Arkansas’ record against the spread as an underdog in two seasons under Pittman.

Arkansas vs Alabama Weather Forecast

Early forecasts for Saturday in Tuscaloosa look ideal for football, with temperatures in the low 60s for the 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff, low humidity and little to no chance of rain. The weather should be of no concern to those making college football picks on this game.

Arkansas vs Alabama Moneyline

Alabama is a -1600 moneyline favorite, according to sportsbooks, while Arkansas is a +850 underdog. To Alabama backers, that close call two weeks ago against LSU lingers in the mind. The Tide were unable to run the ball against a mediocre LSU rush defense that statistically compares very well to Arkansas’.

But that was an uncharacteristically poor Alabama performance plagued by penalties and fumbles, which isn’t going to happen very often to a Nick Saban team. Meanwhile, the Hogs haven’t won at Bryant-Denny since 2003. Since there’s no value in betting Alabama on the moneyline, we’re passing on these college football odds.

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Arkansas vs Alabama Point Spread

Alabama is a 20.5-point favorite, according to betting sites. The Crimson Tide has faced a spread of 20 points or greater five times so far this season, and failed to cover twice - once in a blowout of Mercer against a 60-point line, and then two weeks ago in that cryptic near-miss against LSU.

Arkansas, meanwhile, has covered just once in its last six games, that in a one-point loss at Ole Miss. But we’re still stuck on that October trip to Georgia, where the Hogs entered as 17-point underdogs and were blitzed. Expect cleaner execution from Alabama than what we witnessed against LSU, and a final score that covers the spread. You can get Alabama -21 (-110) at DraftKings.

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Arkansas vs Alabama Totals

The total is 56.5, according to betting apps. Alabama has gone under in four of its last six games, largely (again, with the exception of the LSU game) due to its excellent defense shutting down opposing offenses. Arkansas has gone over in three of its last five, but on average faces lower totals than the Tide.

The last two scores in this series were 58-3 and 48-7, but we’re not sure it will be quite that lopsided this time given the quality of the Razorbacks’ skill-position players. The inclination is toward the under, with Alabama clamping down on Arkansas’ run game and the Crimson Tide pulling away in the second half. You can get Under 57.5 (-108) at FanDuel.

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About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.