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Buffalo vs Western Michigan Predictions & MAC Betting Picks

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 14 mins

Buffalo vs Western Michigan Predictions & MAC Betting Picks

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We’re not happy with the Buffalo Bulls.

Betting the Bulls on Parade every game as they averaged 287.1 rushing yards and went 5-2 against the spread last season was just the best. We thought they had the pieces for another strong run in 2021 and took them last week as a -13.5 favorite over Old Dominion.

We still believed in Buffalo despite a slow start this season. They rewarded us with a 35-7 first half and all was right with the world, a sure-hitter on the last leg of our college football betting lineup to make it a 3-0 MAC week.

Naturally, the Monarchs outscored Buffalo 27-0 in the second half and that’s the last we’ll ever speak of the Bulls’ 35-34 win. We’re on to Week 5 for a big-time conference matchup as Buffalo hosts Western Michigan in what should be a thriller with two of the best teams in the MAC.

Now it’s time to determine if we’re still willing to back the Bulls at sportsbooks and betting sites after last week’s calamity in Norfolk.

Week 5 MAC Best Bets

Buffalo +6.5 over Western Michigan

We’re back, baby! This is the week Buffalo begins to establish itself as a top dog in conference. We’ll chalk up that second-half meltdown as a minor lapse in focus coming off battles against Nebraska and Coastal Carolina.

Now the Bulls are back at UB Stadium and that’s a dangerous place for opponents – Buffalo has been the best home cover team in the nation for quite a while, going 20-3 ATS over the past five years. Western Michigan looks great on defense so far and packs a punch on offense, but Buffalo’s defense is playing well too. They’re also perfectly balanced on offense with 204.5 passing yards and 203.8 rushing yards per game.

There’s no way we’re fading the college football odds for the Bulls as a home dog. We’re on Buffalo +6.5 at BetMGM.

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Eastern Michigan +2.5 over Northern Illinois

Eastern Michigan is another one of our favorite underdogs this week. The Eagles have the more dangerous offense, they play with more discipline and their quarterback is far less mistake-prone than Northern Illinois signal caller Rocky Lombardi, who has a 16-19 career touchdown-interception ratio. Not good.

The Eagles need to be better against the run in order to compete for a conference title, but they’ve got more than enough to take care of business and upset the Huskies Saturday. Eastern Michigan is +2.5 on most betting apps, including at Caesars sportsbook. We’re taking Eastern Michigan.

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Army -7.5 over Ball State

We cashed on Army -7.5 over Miami (Ohio) last week, and we like the Black Knights to pick up another convincing win over the MAC Saturday. Most teams in this conference just don’t have the horses to hang with Army in the trenches, and we see that again this week with a Ball State team that’s averaged just 12.3 points over its last three games.

Ball State was one of the preseason betting favorites in the MAC, but it’s been a disastrous start to the year at 1-3. The Cardinals are already on the ropes. A matchup like this, against a bunch of grown men who won’t give an inch for 60 minutes, is the type of game that can break a team’s spirit.

Ball State’s offense doesn’t stand much of a chance against Army. This will be a slog of a game with the Black Knights sustaining lengthy drives, but soon enough the Knights will take a two-score lead and hold it for the duration. Army -7.5 at FanDuel is the play.

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Week 5 MAC Matchups and Point Spreads

Game SpreadTotal
Toledo at UMass TOL -27 57
Western Michigan at Buffalo WMU -6.5 59
Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois NIU -2.5 60
Central Michigan at Miami (Ohio) MIAMI -1 56.5
Ohio at Akron OHIO -9.5 55
Bowling Green at Kent State KENT -17 57.5
Army at Ball State ARMY -7.5 47.5

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication. Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review.

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About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.