Georgia vs Ohio State CFP Semifinal Predictions, Best Bets & Picks
Dan Kilbridge | 13 mins
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Ohio State’s season looked to be over after a devastating 45-23 home loss to Michigan, the second straight season in which the Wolverines upset the Buckeyes to keep them out of the Big Ten title game. It just wasn’t enough to keep Ohio State out of the College Football Playoff this time around.
The Buckeyes snuck in as the No. 4 seed ahead of USC after Utah handed the Trojans their second loss of the season in the Pac-12 title game. We haven’t heard many complaints out of Columbus regarding the committee’s decision.
RELATED: TCU vs Michigan CFP Semifinal Predictions
Georgia is back in the CFP and looking to repeat as national champions after last year’s 33-18 win over Alabama in the title game. One could argue the Bulldogs have looked even better this year and they’re currently -125 favorites to win it all on the college football futures odds board.
Those college football odds are significantly shorter than Michigan (+290), Ohio State (+350) and TCU (+1800), but the CFP always has a few surprises in store.
Georgia vs Ohio State Point Spread Prediction
It’s not surprising to see Georgia as a -6.5 favorite on betting apps given the way the Bulldogs steamrolled the rest of the SEC this year. It’s also worth noting that this is the smallest point spread for Georgia all season and just the second game in which they aren’t favored by double digits. The defending champs were a -9.5 favorite against Tennessee and took care of business with a definitive 27-13 win and cover. Overall, the Bulldogs went a respectable 7-6 against the spread.
Ohio State was actually a season-long loser at the ticket window, finishing 5-6-1 ATS. This is the first time they’ve been getting points since the 2020 National Championship, when they failed to cover the +9.5 spread in a 52-24 blowout loss to Alabama.
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This is a fascinating matchup – the narrative will likely be a high-flying Ohio State offense against a ground-and-pound, traditional Georgia team. And that narrative will be wrong. Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett actually surpassed Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with 3,425 passing yards on the year and these teams are almost identical on offense from a statistical standpoint.
Despite not even making it to the conference title game, this Buckeyes team is much stronger on defense than the 2021 squad. Conversely, Georgia has taken a small step back from that 2021 defense, which ranks among the greatest of all time.
We can’t wait to see how these coaches scheme it up in what’s really a dream matchup for college football betting fans at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. We’re expecting a close fight all the way and would be stunned by a blowout on either side.
We’re on Ohio State +6.5.
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Georgia vs Ohio State Moneyline Prediction
Oddsmakers have the Bulldogs as significant favorites here, but the gap isn’t as big as it is in the other semifinal with Michigan taking on TCU. Ohio State is a +220 underdog on Ohio betting sites while Georgia is listed at -260 on the monyeline.
The lines would likely be closer if Ohio State had lost by a field goal rather than 22 points against Michigan, but the game was a lot closer than the score indicated. Ohio State only had 38 fewer total yards than the Wolverines and beat themselves with nine penalties for 91 yards and two turnovers. Michigan also hit on more big passing plays than we’ve seen from them all season, and those things can be random. We’d still take Ohio State to win a rematch and think they might get that chance.
Let’s consider the 2021 CFP – Alabama was a No. 1 seed coming off a national title. Georgia was humbled weeks prior in a 41-24 loss to Alabama and entered the CFP with a chip on the shoulder, one they carried to a national title and upset win over the Tide in the championship game.
Now Georgia is the No. 1 seed with the big target on its back facing a pissed-off Ohio State team coming off an embarrassing loss in its final game of the regular season. We expect to see the Buckeyes’ best effort and wouldn’t at all be surprised to see them get past Georgia to set up an epic rematch with the Wolverines in the title game.
We’re on Ohio State moneyline at +220. With Ohio betting apps set to go live at midnight on Jan. 1, should this game go to overtime, there may be live betting opportunities for Buckeyes bettors.
Georgia vs Ohio State Over/Under Prediction
Oddsmakers have this total slightly higher than the other CFP semifinal, with the total hovering right around 62.5. It’s not surprising given how much talent the Buckeyes and Bulldogs have at the skill positions and it’s been all shootouts recently – Ohio State and Michigan combined for 68 points to cap the regular season and Georgia and LSU totaled 80 in the SEC Championship.
We get where the trends are heading, but it hasn’t been the case all year. Both offenses have struggled for entire games at times. The defensive efforts were consistently elite throughout the season, turning potential upsets into ugly wins like 21-7 at Northwestern for the Buckeyes or 16-6 at Kentucky for Georgia.
This will be a fascinating chess match, one that could be slower-developing than expected. We’re on Under 62.5.
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