The Miami (FL) Hurricanes have been slipping in the Associated Press poll since the season began: from No. 14 to No. 22 and now down to No. 24. The Michigan State Spartans are still outside the rankings, but they’re receiving more votes each week.

On Saturday, both teams have a chance to prove they belong. The college football odds at top sportsbooks opened with Miami as a 6.5-point home favorites for a noon ET kickoff, although they’ve yet to play much like favorites this season.

The Hurricanes have already faced the ultimate test (top-ranked Alabama), but the Spartans already have an underdog win under their belts. Check out our college football picks for this matchup below.

Odds are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to kickoff.

5 Keys to Michigan State vs Miami

Too much pressure on King: Miami’s offensive line has come under criticism from its coaching staff, and quarterback D’Eriq King has paid for it on the field. He has been pressured in 35.4% of dropbacks, which is 14th-most among 61 qualified Power 5 quarterbacks.

State wants to run: Through two games, the Spartans have compiled 598 rush yards on 8.0 yards/carry. The bell cow in that backfield is Kenneth Walker III (321 yards on 30 carries, five touchdowns), but even backup Jordan Simmons has netted 6.2 yards/carry.

TFL specialists: Miami will need to get into the backfield regularly to have a shot at slowing down Michigan State’s run game, and that’s something the Hurricanes have done so far. As a team, the Hurricanes have just one sack, but they have eight tackles for loss.

Two injuries for ’Canes: Miami won’t have running back Donald Chaney Jr. (knee, out for season) or linebacker Keontra Smith (knee, out at least a month) for this game. Chaney wasn’t the starting tailback but has turned 11 carries into 44 yards and a touchdown in 2021. Smith was the starting weakside linebacker.

4th Down: If the game is tight, as many would expect, fourth-down opportunities could make a big difference. Michigan State has allowed opponents to convert on 8-of-9 fourth-down chances, while converting 2-of-2 chances.

Michigan State vs. Miami Weather Forecast

Muggy is the main descriptor: It’ll feel like mid-90s (real temperature in the mid-80s) with risk of a thunderstorm and a 60% chance for trace amounts of rain.

Michigan State vs Miami Moneyline

We still don’t know a lot about these teams entering Week 3, but we do know that sportsbooks still like Miami as -250 moneyline favorites.

The Hurricanes were steamrolled by Alabama, and they followed that up by eking out a two-point win over Appalachian State. Michigan State is unbeaten, albeit against lesser opponents (Northwestern, Youngstown State). With an opportunity to more than triple your money (+205 moneyline odds), we think the Spartans are worth a stab here. Take the plus-odds at BetMGM ➜.

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Michigan State vs Miami Point Spread

If you’re taking Michigan State on the moneyline, you have to take the points, right? There are times to hedge in college football betting, but we don’t believe this is one of them. betting apps give the Spartans a 6.5-point cushion, and we’ll take it at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Michigan State won straight up as a three-point underdog in Week 1 against Northwestern, so we know they’re capable. Miami didn’t cover its 7.5-point spread against Appalachian State last week.

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Michigan State vs Miami Totals

Miami has seen the under hit in both of its games, while Michigan State is 2-for-2 on hitting the over. Be mindful, though that both point totals for the Spartans were low (45 points and 51.5 points).

This week, the 56.5-point line is more than we think these teams will muster. The Spartans’ best path to victory is likely by controlling the clock with the run game, while the Hurricanes — also a run-first outfit — will want defense to win the day. Take the Under at DraftKings ➜.

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