How MLB Bettors Can Use Weather Trends to Gain Wagering Edge
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Bettors are always looking for an edge. Professional Major League Baseball bettors are looking for even more of an edge. MLB weather reports are a fundamental part of handicapping a baseball game.
You will need to know the wind direction and speed of the wind. You will also need to know that not all pitchers are created equal. There are pitchers that are mixed great with wind blowing in and there are pitchers mixed great with wind blowing out. Let’s dissect the different types of weather and what type of pitchers to seek with each correlation.
This category is mostly for April and May, as June and beyond starts to heat up around the league. Do you remember your dad always telling you as a kid “cold weather means less runs?” Well, he was right, but the oddsmakers have caught up and they factor this into baseball odds.
They set the lines extra low nowadays because of that cold focus. A total that is 7 in 40-degree weather these days probably should be a total of 8. It is the opposite of inflation. Overs are 29-16 (64%) in games under 40 degrees the last 45 times out.
You may think betting on games with high heat will make you a ton of money. However, there is really not an edge. It’s about even the past 10 years with wins and losses on the total.
Now, if you mix wind blowing out, with sunny high heat weather plus a fly ball pitcher on the mound, then you are talking. I’ll get into that shortly.
The most important factor to me when handicapping weather is the wind. I like to pair wind blowing in for the most relevant parks with heavy offensive teams.
Let’s look at Wrigley Field. This is a stadium known for wind in “The Windy City.” The past 13 years, with wind blowing in at Wrigley at 5 mph or more, the Under is 59%. Over is 64% with the wind blowing out. This is a trend MLB consensus bettors can blindly follow, but if you have two fly ball pitchers at Wrigley with the wind blowing out, you have a nice recipe for an Over that hits before the seventh inning.
This is best served when the Cubs are playing a bad offensive team because you will get a lower total to take advantage of. For the opposite, wind blowing in at Wrigley is best served with a glass of ground ball pitchers. Wind is also a major factor for the Texas Rangers’ Globe Life Park in Arlington when the wind is blowing in (though the Rangers will move into a new stadium in 2020). The Unders have hit at a 60% clip.
In general with wind direction and speed, Unders have hit 55% of the time with wind blowing in 5 mph or more. Wind blowing out the past 13 years hits Over at a 56% rate. Pair the wind blowing in with ground ball pitchers and the wind blowing out with fly ball pitchers and you can have a nice bankroll coming your way if you are patient enough to let it grow over time.
Most bettors see a trend and start to blindly follow it. “Erg, wind blowing out, must ... bet ... over.” That’s not how it works. Try doing that strategy with the Giants’ Oracle Park, where the wind is always blowing out but home runs are few and far between.
Putting Weather Strategy Together for Baseball
You have to be picky with the details. Use these trends in the right ballparks and the right pitchers that match the trends. You never want to have conflicting trends. If a major ground ball guy is pitching and the winds are blowing out hard, that does not mean you automatically bet the over.
Pick your spots. The best bettors are the ones who are patient and let a system play out the entire season.