• Bookies
  • Guides
  • What to Consider When Betting Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Games
Most Valuable Offer

Bet $10, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Promo Code: BOOKIES

Visit site
Must be 21+ and present in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, or WV. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA VA, WV). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), Call (800)-327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org in MA. Call or text REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

What to Consider When Betting Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Games

David Caraviello for Bookies.com

David Caraviello  | 4 mins

What to Consider When Betting Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Games

Bet $10, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Promo Code: BOOKIES

Visit site
Used 58 Times Today
Popular in Virginia
Must be 21+ and present in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, or WV. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA VA, WV). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), Call (800)-327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org in MA. Call or text REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

On the doorstep of the Final Four, the pressure can be suffocating. Teams are just one victory from reaching college basketball’s promised land, an accomplishment worthy of awarding rings and hanging banners, a place that can redefine the reputation of a program or a head coach.

And they’re one loss from becoming a mere footnote in NCAA Tournament annals.

That’s the unforgiving nature of the Elite Eight, an all-or-nothing round unlike anything else in March Madness betting, where winners are immortalized and losers are forgotten.

It’s a place where the upstarts that dominate the early rounds are whittled down to such a select few, we still remember them today. It’s a level where the sport’s blue bloods remind everyone who continues to rule the game.

And from a college basketball betting perspective, it brings its own unique set of challenges far different than first-round betting, given that seed differences are often smaller and point spreads are typically tighter than in the rounds that came before.

The Elite Eight is a round of matchups and nuance, and here are five tips to help bettors figure it out.


CHECK OUT: Free Daily March Madness Picks


  1. Chalk Goes Only So Far

    For all the upsets produced by the opening four days, it’s the higher-seeded power teams that still dominate the tournament when it counts. And yet, don’t expect all four No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four, something that’s happened just once, in 2008.

    Three No. 1 seeds have made it just five times, most recently in 2015. According to the NCAA’s website, more No. 2, 3, and 4 seeds combined have reached the Final Four than No. 1s, but by a scant margin — 59 to 57.

    While the top seeds are money when it comes to winning the national championship, in the Elite Eight there’s always room for somebody else to slip through.

  2. Real Shockers are Rare

    Sure, No. 11 seed Loyola of Chicago made the Final Four in 2018, but the Ramblers got there by beating a ninth-seeded Kansas State team in the Elite Eight. Seventh-seeded South Carolina, Michigan State and Connecticut — in 2017, 2015 and 2014 respectively, all got there by beating No. 4 seeds.

    Real shockers in the Elite Eight are rare; from 2009-19, there have been only four that truly qualify: No. 10 Syracuse over No. 1 Virginia in 2016; No. 9 Wichita State over No. 2 Ohio State in 2013; and No. 11 VCU over No. 1 Kansas and No. 8 Butler over No. 2 Florida in 2011. That’s four out of 44 games, hardly a convincing percentage.

  3. But Upsets Still Happen

    The more common upsets in the Elite Eight are mild ones, but they occur with surprising regularity.

    From 2009-19, lower seeds have won 25 of 44 games, although these are often the type of upsets that don’t trigger the Richter scale — for example, No. 2 Michigan State over No. 1 Duke and No. 3 Texas Tech over No. 1 Gonzaga in 2019.

    Five times in the last 11 years just one higher-seeded team has advanced out of the Elite Eight. Clearly, there’s a theme developing here: The Elite Eight is dominated by elite, major-conference programs, though not always No. 1 regional seeds.

  4. High Seeds Play Close Games

    At least, often they do. Regional finals between two high seeds often produce single-digit margins, a trend that’s been plainly evident over the past decade.

    Michigan State won by a point over Duke last year, and the other three games were decided six points or less. No. 1 seed Kansas and No. 2 Duke went to overtime in an eventual four-point game in 2018. No. 1 seed North Carolina edged No. 2 Kentucky by a bucket the season before.

    There are exceptions, to be certain, like No. 1 Louisville hammering No. 2 Duke by 22 in 2013.

  5. Getting Over the Hump is Hard

    Reaching the Final Four is such a huge milestone for a program, even one with an elite reputation, that failing to get there time and time again can add pressure in the Elite Eight.

    We saw it with Gonzaga over and over until the Zags at last broke through in 2017. We see it even in programs with multiple national championships, such as Kansas, which often still stalls out in the regional final.

    The most glaring current example was Virginia, which despite so much regular-season success had repeatedly gagged in March. That of course ended last season with the Cavaliers winning the national title a year after becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed.

About the Author

David Caraviello for Bookies.com
David Caraviello
Veteran sports journalist David Caraviello has covered college football, college basketball, motorsports and golf, covering all three US golf majors, the Daytona 500 and SEC football.

Top Betting Sites

ESPN BET

Bet $10, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Promo Code: BOOKIES

Visit site
Must be 21+ and present in AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, or WV. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, LA, MD, MI, NJ, OH, PA VA, WV). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), Call (800)-327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org in MA. Call or text REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).
62 PLAYERS REDEEMED TODAY!
Caesars

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

Visit site
Must be 21+ to participate. T&Cs apply.
Fanatics

Bet And Get Up To $1,000 In Bonus Bets

Visit site
Must be 21+ to participate. T&Cs apply. Play Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-522-4700, CT (888) 789-7777, IA 1-800-BETS-OFF, MA (800)-327-5050, VA 1-888-532-3500
BetMGM

Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets if Your First Bet Loses
Promo Code: BOOKIES

Visit site
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Must be 21+ to participate. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, KY, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY) Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for T&Cs. US promotional offers not available in NY, NV, or Puerto Rico.
Bet365

First Bet Safety Net Up To $1,000

Visit site
Must be 21+ to participate. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, KY, LA, NJ, VA). Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ). Call 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Deposit required. Paid in Bonus Bets. Bets wager excluded from returns. New Customer only. T&Cs Apply.
Betway

Check Out Betway Here

Visit site
Must be 21+ to participate. T&Cs Apply.
DraftKings

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Instantly

Visit site
Must be 21+ to participate. T&Cs apply.
FanDuel

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins

Visit site
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). 21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
Hard Rock Bet

Get Up To $100 Back On Your First Bet

Visit site
Offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital, LLC. Must be 21+ and physically present in AZ, IN, NJ, OH, TN or VA to play. Terms and conditions apply. In IN, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9-WITH-IT. In AZ call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342. GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH, TN, VA)
BetRivers

2nd Chance Bet Up To $500

Visit site
Must be 21 to participate. T&C apply.