MLB Same Game Parlay: Home Run Derby For July 14th, 2025
The Same Game Parlay has become a popular wager at online sportsbooks across the country.
The MLB All-Star Game is a fun viewing experience, but for those who like to wager on events, one could argue the MLB Home Run Derby is even more exciting.
The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby features a hometown favorite and MLB’s home run leader at the midway point. Several of the league’s most dynamic hitters from advanced-stats metrics are in the mix. It should make for a competitive, young, hard-hitting Home Run Derby.
2025 Home Run Derby Odds
| MLB Home Run Derby Player ⚾ | Odds |
| Cal Raleigh | +275 |
| Oneil Cruz | +350 |
| James Wood | +400 |
| Matt Olson | +800 |
| Brent Rooker | +850 |
| Byron Buxton | +900 |
| Junio Caminero | +1000 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | +1400 |
*Odds provided by BetMGM as of Monday morning
Who Will Win the 2025 Home Run Derby?
So, how do we break it down with so many legit winners? Let’s first take into consideration the park.
In 2025, Truist Field has shown no advantage to being a right-handed or left-handed hitter. But go back a few years, to 2021, and each season, the lefty has gotten a slight edge from hitting in Atlanta. It’s not massive, but it’s not nothing.
That benefits left-handers Oneil Cruz, James Wood, and Matt Olson, and presumably the switch-hitting Cal Raleigh.
There’s also exit velocity to consider, as it proves they don’t have to absolutely get a hold of it to get it over the fence.
Average exit velocity, and Stratcast stats such as hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage (how often a hitter connects with the right launch angle) are factors that have historically helped handicap the Home Run Derby.
In terms of average exit velo, it’s Cruz at 96.4 mpg, far and away the leader. After him, it’s Wood (93.8), Olson (91.9), and Raleigh (91.8).
Hard hit balls, Cruz again tops this list at 57.8%, with Wood (56.3%), Olson (54.6%), and Byron Buxton (53.9%) the lone others at over 50%.
The leader in “barreling one up” is, one more time, Cruz, second in the majors in the advanced stat. Raleigh, Wood, and Buxton also rank in the Top 20.
The format this year is all eight compete against each other in the opening round, then the final four are paired into semifinals, then finals. From what our chosen metrics tell us, Cruz and Wood are the clear Top 2 from this seat, with Raleigh and Olson legit contenders as well.
Among those three, James Wood is giving us the best value to win at BetMGM, at +400. Cruz at +350. Olson is a legit dark horse at +800.
If you like those three and only those three, there are Name the Finalists odds at some online sportsbooks, including DraftKings. Back Wood vs. Cruz at +1200, Olson vs. Cruz at +1300, and Olson vs. Wood at +1700. We’re fading the favorite.
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All-Star Game Pick
The All-Star Game is always a bit of a crapshoot because you’re never really sure which starters will go more than two innings, when pitchers will be used (if at all), and if managers are strategizing to win or to make players happy.
The American League has won 10 of the last 11 All-Star Games. The NL will be motivated to end the AL’s streak and has a stronger, better lineup of lefties in the order that can take advantage of Truist Park’s dimensions. Each team, as of Monday morning, is at -110 at most online sportsbooks. Take the NL but only dabble in ASG wagers.
Over the last 18 All-Star Games, only one of them has reached double-digit scoring. Only six of the 18 have even gotten to eight total runs. Pitchers rule, and sportsbooks have adjusted. The Over/Under is a brutal seven runs.
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All-Star MVP Picks
Five of the last seven MVPs have been awarded to a non-starter. Six of the seven were position players.
There’s no reason to bet big on this, but we can take the two non-starting position players with the lowest odds and dabble. That would give us Bobby Witt Jr. at +1700 and Fernando Tatis Jr. at +3000, one for each side.
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