Will Pete Rose Be The Next Baseball Hall Of Fame Inductee?
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MLB commissioner Rob Manfred announced this week that baseball’s all-time hits leader, Pete Rose, plus 16 other deceased individuals, including “Shoeless” Joe Jackson, have been removed from the permanently ineligible list. That means that Rose, plus the other people on the list, can now be considered for the National Baseball Hall of Fame. In 2027, the Classic Baseball Era Committee will vote on and consider Rose’s induction into the Hall of Fame.
With Rose and some other notable players now being considered as potential Hall of Famers, Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has put together hypothetical odds for which of these newly-eligible individuals could be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
Odds to Get Induction Into Baseball Hall of Fame
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Rose | -500 | 83.3 |
| Joe Jackson | -110 | 52.4 |
| Eddie Cicotte | +500 | 16.7 |
| Lefty Williams | +2000 | 4.8 |
| Buck Weaver | +2500 | 3.9 |
This hypothetical MLB betting market is for entertainment purposes only and does not reflect any market that may be available on betting sites and betting apps.
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Pete Rose (-500)
Pete Rose is MLB’s all-time hits leader, with 4,256 hits, and he played the most games of all time, with 3,562 games played. He also owns other notable records, such as most plate appearances (15,890), most at-bats (14,053), most singles (3,215), and even most outs (10,328). In addition, Rose had 79.6 bWAR, was a three-time World Series Champion, a 17-time All-Star, a National League MVP, and a World Series MVP. If it comes down to just purely the numbers, Rose is about as obvious a baseball Hall of Famer as you will ever find.
The problem is that Rose was placed on the permanently ineligible list in 1989 for betting on baseball, breaking one of the game’s cardinal rules, and there were also allegations of sexual misconduct, including towards a minor. Hall of Fame voters will also consider these things in addition to his raw statistics due to the character clause.
According to Thompson, Rose is a -500 to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, taking into account both the good and the bad. Odds are he will get in, but it is far from a lock that it happens.
Joe Jackson (-110)
Joe Jackson, nicknamed “Shoeless,” finished his career with a .356 batting average, the fourth-highest of all time. He also won a World Series and finished his career with 62.2 bWAR.
From a numbers perspective, Jackson has a good argument for Hall of Fame induction. However, he was part of the “Black Sox Scandal,” where the 1919 Chicago White Sox conspired to throw the World Series. That put him on MLB’s permanently ineligible list for over 100 years.
Now that Jackson has been reinstated, the Hall of Fame voters will need to consider him. Based on his numbers, he certainly has a good chance of getting in, but his association with the Black Sox Scandal may still keep him out. Thompson has Jackson’s odds of getting into the Hall of Fame at -110, essentially making it a coin flip as to whether or not he will be inducted.
Eddie Cicotte (+500)
Eddie Cicotte was another member of the infamous 1919 Chicago White Sox team that was called the “Black Sox.” Like Jackson, Cicotte has been on baseball’s ineligible list for over the last 100 years. Now that he’s off the list, he will be considered for the Hall of Fame.
By the numbers, Cicotte certainly has an argument for HOF induction, given that the pitcher finished his career with 59 bWAR, was a World Series Champion, and won an ERA title. His career 209-148 record with a 2.38 ERA in 3226 IP is certainly worthy enough of consideration.
That being said, Cicotte is a borderline Hall of Famer by the numbers, and his association with the Black Sox Scandal may still keep him out. Thompson has Cicotte pegged at +500 odds to get into the HOF, making him a decent-sized underdog to do so.
Lefty Williams (+2000)
Lefty Williams was also a member of the 1919 Chicago White Sox team, meaning he was placed on baseball’s ineligible list due to his association with the Black Sox Scandal.
By the numbers, Williams had an 82-48 career record as a pitcher with a 3.13 career ERA, and he was a World Series winner. His bWAR, however, is only 12.1, which falls well short of HOF standards.
In Thompson’s view, Williams is a massive underdog to get into the HOF, being placed at +2000 odds.
Buck Weaver (+2500)
Buck Weaver, another player on the 1919 Chicago White Sox, is a long shot to get into the HOF. Despite being a World Series winner and having some MVP votes on his resume, he just does not have the numbers to validate HOF induction, with only 21.2 career bWAR. In Thompson’s estimation, Weaver is a +2500 underdog to get into the HOF, making him an extreme long shot.
Other (N/A)
There are 12 other individuals on the list, but in Thompson’s view, none of them have a chance of sniffing the Hall of Fame, hence why there are no odds available for these 12 people.
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