The Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves face off for the 2021 World Series. For the Astros, it means a vindication of sorts after the cheating scandal marred previous trips to the Fall Classic. For the upstart Braves, it’s the culmination of an amazing in-season turnaround for their first trip to the final round since 1999.

Houston is the -155 favorite in the latest World Series odds, with Atlanta posted at +130. We’ll break down all the odds on our favoritebetting apps and offer up our top MLB picks for the World Series.

MLB odds via FanDuel are current as of publication. Betting sites may indicate odds changes closer to Game 1 on Tuesday.

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Why You Should Pick The Braves

It’s hard to argue that the Braves are a totally different team since Aug. 6, when they were still a .500 team. Trades to acquire Joc Pederson on July 15 and Eddie Rosario (the NLCS MVP), Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler on July 30.

Atlanta is 43-23 since the start of August. No team got hotter at the right time, thanks in large part to an influx of new talent.

The Braves have a decided edge in starting pitching as well. In 10 postseason games, Charlie Morton, Max Fried & Co. have a stellar 3.27 ERA and opponents are hitting just .228 off them. Compare that to Houston’s corps, which owns a 5.92 ERA in the playoffs (and .264 average allowed).

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Why You Should Pick The Astros

When it comes to offensive production, there isn’t much of a comparison. In the playoffs, Houston is averaging 6.7 runs per game, Atlanta is at 4.0. There’s no new trend there, as the Astros lead all of MLB in runs scored, average and on-base percentage and No. 2 in OPS.

Few can argue that Atlanta’s starting rotation has been better in these playoffs, but it’s also shown that bullpens have been more key. Atlanta’s starters are averaging just 4.4 innings per game, Houston’s just 3.8.

While the Atlanta bullpen was considered the better of the two teams’ units, the postseason stats for each couldn’t be more even. In fact, the Astros have been slightly better, if only slightly. Houston’s bullpen: 3.42 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, .230 average allowed; Atlanta’s bullpen: 3.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .228 average allowed.

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Our World Series Pick

The Astros have the best offense in baseball, the pitching is close enough to even. Atlanta is hotter, but now consider a few more numbers fans of MLB betting must consider.

In one-run games, Houston is 21-19, Atlanta is 26-31; not only were the Braves worse in those games, they played 17 more of them. Against right-handed starters, Houston was 61-39, Atlanta 65-55. Against teams with winning records, Houston 45-32, Atlanta just 31-37.

Houston has the edge in personnel and in results, and has the home-field advantage as well. Astros in 6 makes sense as the favorite, but we see value in another spot at sportsbooks.

The Pick: Astros in 5 at DraftKings

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