AGA Renews Attacks on Prediction Markets as 2025 Gaming Revenue Hits $78.7B
The battle lines between traditional gaming outlets and prediction markets deepened Thursday with the American Gaming Association's "2025 State Of The Industry" presentation. The AGA renewed its attacks on prediction markets after noting 2025 gaming revenue hit $78.7 billion in gross gaming revenue. That translated into $18.09 billion in gaming tax revenue for state and local governments, the AGA added.
AGA President Bill Miller reiterated many of the same points he raised in his Global Gaming Expo keynote speech last fall in Las Vegas.
"The battle against prediction markets is a defining fight for this industry," Miller said during the presentation. "Prediction markets threaten what I've long called the American blueprint for gaming."
The AGA estimates that prediction markets have affected the best sports betting sites and "diverted" more than $500 million in potential sports betting tax revenues to states.
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Christie Takes Swings At Prediction Markets
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has signed on with the AGA as its point man in this fight, joined AGA Senior VP of Governmental Relations Chris Cylke during the presentation.
"My first reaction was it's illegal," Christie told Cylke when asked about his first thoughts on prediction markets. "These predictive market folks are rogue cowboys in an industry that took a long time to birth."
Christie said industry stakeholders need to take the fight against prediction markets trading in sports-related contracts to both state and federal legislators, in addition to the public itself.
"It's disrespectful of all 50 states; it violates the laws of all 50 states. And I think that over the course of time, either the courts or our political institutions are going to say, 'This is not what we've bargained for,'" Christie said.
In regard to the Commodities Futures Trading Corporation (CFTC), Christie pointed out the term "commodities" in the agency's title. "This is not a commodity," he said. "This is a bet. Everyone knows what it is. It is a bet on a game, and it's not a commodity. It's not something that is even in their ballpark to regulate. And these prediction markets are putting it out there in a way that twists what the CFTC really is supposed to be doing. And it makes no sense."
Under new Chairman Mike Selig, the CFTC has taken a proactive role in siding with prediction markets like Kalshi, Robinhood, and Polymarket in their various battles against states like Maryland, Nevada, and Massachusetts.
The CFTC filed a "friend of the court" brief in Kalshi's ongoing legal battle in Nevada. And Selig said on social media and in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece that his agency was going to assert its role as the lone regulatory body concerning prediction markets.
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2025 Sees Growth Across Gaming Industry
Gaming revenues grew in 2025 despite headwinds such as the rise of prediction markets and continued economic uncertainty. Among the AGA's date points:
- Traditional Gaming generated $50.94 billion in revenue, up 2.3 percent, while contributing $11.33 billion in taxes, a 7.2 percent increase.
- Sports Betting revenue rose to $16.96 billion, a 22.8 percent increase, on a total handle of $166.94 billion (+11.0 percent). State-regulated sportsbooks generated $3.71 billion in taxes, up 32.4 percent year-over-year.
- iGaming reached $10.74 billion in revenue (+27.6 percent) and delivered $2.59 billion in taxes, a 36.9 percent increase.
In noted all 38 commercial gaming markets saw annual revenue increases in 2025.
"These figures reinforce strong consumer enthusiasm for legal, regulated gaming and highlight the expanding economic impact of state-regulated markets," Miller said in the report.
Also on Thursday, PENN Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden said his company, which includes retail, online casinos, and sports betting, will avoid prediction markets until their legal situation becomes more clear.
“Regulators say this is illegal gambling, don’t do it,” he noted during an earnings call. “But there are those that are able to do it and are doing it in other states, so it’s just very confusing. It’s obvious to anybody who’s ever been in the gambling business, and even those who aren’t, that sports betting is gambling. I don’t know how you can defend that it’s not. We’re obviously not going to put our licenses at risk. We’re going to stay very close to our regulators.”
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Super Bowl 60 Warning Sign For 2026 & Beyond
However, an ominous sign for 2026 for the traditional gaming space came on Super Bowl Sunday in Nevada. The state generated $133.8 million in handle on Super Bowl 60. That was the state's lowest take on The Big Game in a decade. And that state-wider Super Bowl handle was lower than the "Bad Bunny First Song" market on Kalshi. That drew $135.1 million in trades.
Overall, prediction markets handled more than $1.3 billion in game and non-game related trades concerning Super Bowl 60. Meanwhile, the AGA estimated the overall legal sports betting handle in the U.S. (minus Florida) on the game was $1.71 billion. Floridians wagered an estimated $100 million on the game through the state's lone legal betting site - Hard Rock Bet.
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