Following a month-long detour through Texas, Georgia and New Orleans, the PGA Tour’s Florida swing finally concludes this week at the Valspar Championship. Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida, is one of the toughest tracks around and always challenges the world’s best at this Tampa Bay area staple. And it comes during a good spot on the calendar for players looking for a tough test with the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island just three weeks away.

Justin Thomas is the betting favorite at +1000 in the latest Valspar Championship odds, while World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is second at +1100 after he bounced back from a missed cut at the Masters with a T-13 at the RBC Heritage.

Corey Conners and Patrick Reed are next at +1800, and Paul Casey rounds out the top five at +2200. Casey has won the last two Valspar Championships, taking the title in 2018 and 2019 – last year’s event was cancelled due to COVID-19 protocols. There’s plenty of action for golf betting fans, so let’s get to it.

Top 2021 Valspar Championship Odds

PGA Tour odds via DraftKings and current as of publication

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Valspar Championship Expert Picks & Predictions

Emiliano Grillo Top-10 Finish (+450, PointsBet)

Grillo is on a great run with back-to-back top-10s, including a T-2 in his last start at the RBC Heritage. He missed the cut in his first and only start at the Valspar in 2015, but most guys fare much better their second time around.

This course should set up perfectly for Grillo’s game at the moment. He’s 23rd in Strokes Gained Approach and 10th in Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee this season and hitting it better than ever. He also ranks third on Tour in bogey-avoidance and first among all players with more than 50 rounds played. We expect Grillo to contend this week and are on him for a top-10 finish at +450.

For more great PGA Tour picks for the Valspar Championship from our team of handicappers, sign up for bookiesEDGE.

Valspar Championship Betting Tips

This is not your typical, laid-back Florida resort course. It’s a beast of a test with tight fairways, plenty of water, slick Bermuda greens and the potential for blowup holes everywhere.

Unlike a lot of Tour courses, par is a good score here on almost every hole. That makes bogey avoidance an important stat this week, as you want to target guys who can chug along and pick their spots with little drama throughout the round.

Length off the tee is a bonus if you can keep it in the fairway, but it’s not a necessity. We see that with past winners Jordan Spieth, Charl Schwartzel, Adam Hadwin, Paul Casey, etc. Bomb and gouge is not the move this week, and you want players who are comfortable in tough conditions and guys who typically putt well on Bermuda.

Valspar Championship, Date & TV

When: Thursday-Sunday, April 29-May 2

Where: Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course, Palm Harbor, FL

TV: NBC, Golf Channel