'Matter Of Time' Before Prediction Markets Earn Seat At Super Bowl Table

Feb 2nd, 2026 12:13 PM EST

(AI Image Via Grok)

TAMPA - It's merely "a matter of time" before Prediction Markets earn their seat at the Super Bowl Big Kid’s Table.

The NFL this year won’t allow prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket to buy airtime on NBC’s broadcast. That same obstacle, however, stood in the way of legal sports books for nearly four years after wagering was given the green light to go national.

The Supreme Court’s decision in May 2018 to overturn PASPA allowed states to legalize sports betting. But the first ads for legal sports books did not appear during The Big Game until Super Bowl 56 in February 2022. The NFL made peace with legal sports betting with its first marketing and sponsorship deals in April 2021. It added more operators four months later.

Industry experts believe ads for prediction markets during NFL games and the Super Book will eventually be as commonplace as those for FanDuel, Budweiser, and Pepsi.

“The leagues say they’re opposed to prediction markets, but they’re talking. And, in the end, they all take the money. It's just a matter of time,” one noted industry lobbyist told Bookies.com.

Polymarket, Kalshi In Lights At Raymond James Stadium

Sunday night, the NHL Stadium Series Game here between the Lightning and Bruins saw more than 64,000 chilled hockey denizens stuff themselves inside Raymond James Stadium. The official digital bunting that festooned the temporary outdoor ice arena included sponsored mentions of both Polymarket and Kalshi. That stadium serves as home of the NFL's Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield participated in a charity giveaway between the 2nd and 3rd period. The game aired on ESPN. The World Wide Leader begins its Super Bowl 61 countdown next week soon as the final gun sounds in Santa Clara.

“I think one by one they'll fall. I'm not necessarily saying ‘fall’ it's a bad thing, but I think that money talks,” said Hot Paper Lantern CEO Ed Moed, a long-time gaming industry communications and PR professional, told Bookies.com. “We have a whole sports marketing area, where we do sponsorships and other things. Certainly, the NFL is the wealthiest, most prosperous league ever. The NFL may be last, but money talks. One-by-one, and especially because there's so few operating books now, everybody wants major sponsors.”

Prediction Markets Make Move Into The Majors

The major-league dominoes began to fall for prediction markets 2025. Kalshi self-certified to start taking sports-event contracts on January 22 last year. The NHL partnered with both Kalshi and Polymarket. As did both the New York Rangers and Chicago Blackhawks. UFC/TKO parent Endeavor Group joined forces with Polymarket. And just a week ago, MLS and Polymarket announced a partnership.

Polymarket’s availability remains limited in the United States and the platform has been banned in Nevada. Kalshi remains available in all 50 states to those over 18. It faces court challenges in multiple states, has been hit with including a pending injunction in Massachusetts. Just last month, Tennessee joined the fray, ordering Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to stop offering sports event contracts to state residents. That case, like the others, remains unresolved after a judge temporarily blocked Tennessee’s order.

NFL Lilkely To Be Final Big League Holdout

The NFL remains adamant in its opposition to prediction markets. In written testimony to a Congressional committee in December, NFL Executive Vice President Jeff Miller said sports-event contracts " fall outside the purview of state regulatory authorities and the safeguards they impose upon the industry."

Furthermore, he cited the lack of state-by-state regulation as a further concern for The Shield. There are no limits on the amount of money one can trade on NFL-based outcomes. Some prediction platforms offer markets on injuries and other non-game-based outcomes. And those trades can be made using crypto currency. All posing "substantially greater risks to contest integrity."

The NFL initially voiced its concerns to the Commodities Futures Trading Corporation in 2024. This past summer, David Highhill, the league’s VP for sports gambling, echoed the league’s position. “We’re concerned that if these markets aren’t properly regulated, they could be susceptible to manipulation or price distortion,” Highhill said during a media call.

In a letter to teams on Nov. 13 of last year, the NFL reiterated its position that “prediction markets constitute prohibited gambling activity.”

“It’s kind of like DraftKings and FanDuel in the beginning. It's even more so because these companies have more money than DraftKings and FanDuel had back then,” Moed said. “But money's no object, they’re going to the leagues, they're then going to be getting into the teams. They’re going to take over from where the sports betting operators were four or five years ago.”

Prediction Markets Rake In Super Bowl Trades

The American Gaming Association estimates that $1.76 billion will be legally wagered by Americans on Super Bowl 56. The AGA said its figure constitutes all wagers (including futures) made on the game going back to the start of the NFL season on September 4.

Kalshi’s “Pro Football Champion” market opened February 9, 2025. As of Monday morning, it had handled $158,869,574 in total trades. That number stood at $148,535,077 a week ago. Among the outcomes not included in that total: Most Receiving & Rushing Yards, Game MVP, and First Touchdown Time. The MVP market, which opened on January 9, has seen $7,212,690 in trading volume. As is the case with the trading volumes from Polymarket and Crypto.com, those figures include international-based trades.

Last week, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the federal regulatory agency dropped its formal opposition to sports event contracts.

The lines grew more blurred this year For the first time, prediction markets operated FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics offer Super Bowl-related trades. All three operators are official sports-betting partners of the NFL. Their sports-based prediction market trades are only offered in jurisdictions where they do not operate sports books. That inclues California, Texas, and Georgia, where sports betting has yet to be legalized. And Florida, the largest state with sports betting, which offers just one operator (Hard Rock Bet) through its Gaming Compact with the Seminole Tribe. Super Bowl 61 also takes place in California at SoFi Stadium.

Prediction Markets Take Bite Out Of The Books

While betting handle and trading volume are not exactly analogous, those figures are compared by Wall Street analysts when they assess the potential impact of prediction markets on sports-betting and other gaming stocks.

Citizens Gaming, Online Gaming & Gaming Technology Analyst Jordan Bender notes that the currently prediction market cannibalization impact on legal sports betting space is equivalent to 5% of the total handle. He says Super Bowl wagering will hit $1.5 billion this year. But added “prediction markets, already seeing impressive volume on the game, are creating some pressure in the legal market.”

Bender tracks app downloads weekly throughout the NFL season. He reported that Kalshi downloads totaled 1 million during the NFL playoffs as of January 20, ahead of the conference championship games. “We believe Kalshi is one of the main headwinds for customer acquisition and handle growth across the betting space in recent months,“ he wrote.