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Bill Speros for Bookies.com

By Bill Speros | | 4 mins

Mega Millions Odds Compared to Sports Betting Parlays & Unlikely Life Events

Mega Millions Odds Compared to Sports Betting Parlays & Unlikely Life Events

The Mega Millions jackpot has been estimated at $1.02 billion for the next drawing on Friday. The odds of winning are 303 million to 1. But how does that translate to the world of sports betting, or real life? Let's take a look.

303 million is a big number, especially for bettors who are used to seeing value in a +125 moneyline. 

The highest price one would ever see on any legal wager is +1000000. That means you would win $10,000 on a $1 bet, on odds of 10,000-1. The implied probability on that bet is 0.01%.

How might you go about getting a return of 303,000,000-1 at a sportsbook or on your sports betting app?

The answer lies in the mighty parlay – and the book’s willingness to take on such a risk. 

On a $1 bet, the payout for an eight-leg parlay with the odds of each leg averaging +1050 would be $305,902,285. That's your Mega Millions payout right there.

Trying To Hit Mega Millions At The Sportsbook

What does that look like for sports bettors like you and me? Well, here are some examples, via BetMGM.

For MLB betting fans, here is one eight-leg parlay that would pay out a whopping $313,150,923.80 on a $1 bet. Now keep in mind, you’d have to hit all eight bets to cash here. 

Let’s go White Sox!

White Sox and BrewersMeet In World Series+20000
White SoxTo Win AL+1500
BrewersTo Win World Series+2000
White SoxTo Win AL Central+130
BravesTo Win NL East+140
Pete AlonsoTo Win NL MVP+1500
Max FriedTo Win NL Cy Young+1400
Justin VerlanderTo Win AL Cy Young+250
Total Parlay Odds313,150,923.80 To 1

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Here’s an eight-leg NFL futures parlay that would pay out $311,525,020.25 on a $1 bet. 

Russell Wilson, a weary Broncos Nation turns its eyes to you. 

BroncosTo Win Super Bowl 57+1600
BroncosTo Win AFC+850
BroncosTo Win AFC West+260
JetsTo Make Playoffs+650
GiantsOver 9.5 Wins+400
JaguarsTo Win AFC South+750
Jalen HurtsOffensive POY+4000
BillsTo Go 17-0+4000
Total Parlay Odds 311,525,020.25 To 1

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Long shots a plenty. The probability of each of these eight legs hitting is improbable but not impossible. Right? If you’re reading this, how can you pass on the chance of one or both hitting?

Odds In Real Life Vs Mega Millions

Here are some “real life” events with the odds they carry in comparison to the 303 million-to-1 odds of the Mega Millions Jackpot. 

Event Odds-To-One
You Being Born400 billion
Perfect NCAA Bracket120.1 billion
Having Sextuplets3.939 billion
Winning Mega Millions 303 million
Eaten By A Shark264 million
Struck By Lightning Twice9 million
Flipping Heads 20 Straight Times1.04 million
Struck By Lightning 960,000
Blackjack 3 Times In A Row 22,722
Flopping A Royal Flush 19,600
A Hole In One 12,500

Some big numbers, indeed. But you likely wouldn't want to bet on some of these outcomes. 

And given the chances of winning Mega Millions, that +125 moneyline bet doesn't seem so risky after all. 


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About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.