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Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

By Isla Knightley | | 25 mins

Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Who Will Replace Truss As PM?

Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Who Will Replace Truss As PM?
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UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has resigned. She was in charge for just 45 days, making her the shortest serving Prime Minister in UK history. The news has triggered the second Tory Leadership contest in a matter of months. So who will be next to walk into 10 Downing Street?

It's an extraordinary time for UK politics and UK betting sites are taking stock, serving up several Tory candidates to replace the exit-bound Truss. Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak – who lost the leadership race to Truss this summer – is now being tipped by Ladbrokes as the heir apparent at -500 (1/5). 

The newly-minted Chancellor Jeremy Hunt – who replaced Kwasi Kwarteng, sacked ignominiously by Truss in a desperate attempt to salvage her untenable Premiership – has confirmed he will not join the running to be the next UK Prime Minister.

MP Penny Mordaunt +2500 (25/1) has seen her odds drop and she now looks unlikely to win, leaving Boris Johnson, yes Boris might be back, as the only other realistic alternative to Sunak. Johnson's price has come in to +350 (7/2) after starting around +1000 (10/1).

Read on as we break down the political betting scene as it currently stands in the UK. We’ll look at the latest Conservative odds to replace Truss as the next leader of the Tory government. As well, we’ll look at how the next General Election odds market stacks up in light of these recent political developments.

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Next Conservative Party Leader Odds

Betting on politics is not legal in the United States. But it is over in Europe where bookmakers offer politics odds such as these, known as “specials”, and American news media often quote these odds as a point of reference in political debates. Should betting on politics become legal in the U.S., it’s bound to be a hit with sports betting sites and betting apps that side of the pond. UK bookmakers often also offer UK free bets that can be used on politics markets, which you can claim on this page.

Let's take a look at the latest Tory leadership odds to replace Truss and be the Conservative Party Leader, and as a result, the next UK Prime Minister.

CandidateUS OddsUK OddsImplied Probability
Rishi Sunak-5001/583.33%
Boris Johnson+3507/222.22%
Penny Mordaunt+250025/13.85%

Odds via Ladbrokes and accurate as of Oct. 23, 2022.

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What Went Wrong For Liz Truss?

Truss, the former Foreign secretary, beat Sunak in a bitterly fought Conservative leadership race to replace the disgraced PM Boris Johnson, who was ousted by his own MPs in the summer. Her Premiership began on Sept. 6, with the usual pomp and ceremony that follows an incoming PM. But any cheerful bonhomie quickly descended into chaos, off the back of an ill-advised mini-budget that backfired spectacularly, and she can only blame herself (or Kwarteng, as she ultimately did with his sacking) for going rogue.

It was a clinic on how to blow up your own government, lose the support of the public, undo a 12-year Tory advantage that she had no business destroying, and lose all credibility in the process. 

She unleashed a series of economic shocks that spooked the markets, plunged the pound to an all-time low against the dollar and sent the UK economy into a freefall. And then, to add insult to injury, she performed a breathtaking U-turn by reversing on every single aspect of the apocalyptic mini-budget.

It all came to a head amidst mounting pressure when The Economist magazine suggested she had the shelf-life of a head of lettuce. It didn’t take long after that for other media publications to take a leaf (pun intended) from The Economist, forcing Truss to take drastic action in a desperate bid for self-preservation. She replaced Kwarteng with Jeremy Hunt on Friday, then watched in stony silence as he filleted “Truss-economics” in the House of Commons on Monday and later apologized to the nation in a BBC interview on the same night. 

But the damage was already done. The resignation of her home secretary Suella Braverman and a chaotic vote on fracking in the House of Commons sealed her fate. Many UK bookies, including those bookmakers that accept Pay Pal and other similar deposit methods, believe Sunak will be her eventual replacement.

At the same time, they’ve lined up two other potential successors in corresponding political betting markets, including former PM Boris Johnson.

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Who Will Replace Truss as PM?

Truss is planning to stay on until her successor is named, with a Conservative leadership election expected by the end of the next week. There are three realistic candidates at this point in time, which are highlighted below. 

Sunak is the bookmakers’ favorite at -500, but will Boris Johnson supporters within the party forgive him for stabbing their dear leader in the back? Sunak was among the first to hand in his resignation, triggering the mass exodus of MPs that made Johnson’s position untenable in the end.

Mordaunt, who reached the penultimate round of the premiership race over the summer, is another potential candidate. She started strong in her first bid, coming second after Sunak in the first round of balloting. Mordaunt appeals to the moderates in the Conservative party and she could potentially appeal to Johnson’s ardent supporters, more so than Sunak. 

Johnson, the disgraced former Prime Minister, is reportedly a contender to return to 10 Downing Street. The latest reports say he is preparing to stand in the election against Sunak. Does he have the support though?

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Next UK General Election Odds

Labour leader Keir Starmer is pushing for a General Election. But that is not an appealing option for the Conservatives at this time. If they were to take the vote to the people, it almost certainly would backfire and pave a path for a Labour government to win a majority for the first time in over 12 years. (The latest polls show Labour has a substantial 36-point lead!)

Here are the latest odds for the winning party in the next UK general election. The next UK general election must take place no later than January 2025, but the Conservatives could choose to trigger one sooner. However, as mentioned, the latest polls suggest it would not be in their interest.

Winning PartyUS OddsUK OddsImplied Probability
Labour-3001/375.02%
Conservatives+2259/430.77%
Liberal Democrats+10000100/10.99%
Reform UK+50000500/10.2%
Green Party+50000500/10.2%
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Could Boris Johnson Return To No. 10?

Yes. Very much yes. Boris has returned from a vacation in the Caribbean to get himself in the mix in this leadership race. Jacob Rees-Mogg has said Johnson 'clearly will stand' in the election. At this point, it looks like a straight fight between Johnson and Sunak. 

A tally of the public declarations of support so far puts Sunak in the lead, and as a result he's the favorite in betting markets.

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About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.