• Bookies
  • News
  • Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Truss Massive Favorite Over Sunak
Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

By Isla Knightley | | 25 mins

Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Truss Massive Favorite Over Sunak

Next UK Prime Minister Odds: Truss Massive Favorite Over Sunak

Boris Johnson is stepping down as UK Prime Minister after a controversy-packed time at 10 Downing Street. The next Tory leader race is entering the home stretch and after much jostling among potential candidates to replace Johnson, just two contenders remain in the race to be the next British Prime Minister.

UK bookmakers are keeping tabs on the Conservative Leadership contest, and as ever, we’re here to keep you posted on all the developments.

Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt were the last candidates eliminated from the Tory Leadership contest, leaving former Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss as the final two contenders. Ladbrokes currently has Truss as the -1200 (1/12) favorite, ahead of Sunak at +650 (13/2). 

Despite Sunak leading all votes among MPs as the Conservative Leadership contest whittled eight contenders down to just two, Truss now has the momentum heading into the membership vote after a late surge of support and a solid showing in the TV debates. 

In the most recent TV debate, on Aug. 4, the two candidates set out competing visions for the future of the British economy after the Bank of England's forecast of a looming recession. Sunak, who is behind in the polls and in betting markets, faces an uphill battle.

Ladbrokes has continued to shorten Truss' odds to win, improving her odds from 1/10 to 1/12 following Thursday's TV debate. In contrast, Sunak has drifted out to +650 (13/2) and he's now a long shot to win. At one point he was +120 (6/5) to be the next UK Prime Minister.

Truss and Sunak will continue to campaign over the summer to win the votes of Conservative Party members with a final vote by Sept. 5. 

Next Conservative Party Leader Odds

Political betting isn’t legal in the United States but it is fair game with our neighbors across the pond. UK bookmakers regularly offer political odds, also known as “specials,” on a number of global political events and elections. That includes US politics, with 2024 US Presidential Election odds, currently available in the UK market.

The UK political system allows Johnson to step down as Conservative Party Leader, resigning his position as Prime Minister of the country, and be replaced in the role by another member of his party. That person - either Sunak or Truss - will be selected by the Conservative Party membership as its leader.

Let's take a look at the latest Tory leadership odds to be the Conservative Party Leader, and as a result, the next UK Prime Minister.

CandidateUS OddsUK OddsImplied Probability
Liz Truss-12001/1292.3%
Rishi Sunak+65013/213.3%

Odds via Ladbrokes and accurate as of Aug. 10, 2022.

In the initial Tory Leadership contest, candidates to replace Johnson needed to secure the support of 20 MPs to make it onto the ballot. Eight MPs achieved that requirement. 

In the first round of voting Jeremy Hunt and Nadhim Zahawi were eliminated from contention after failing to secure the necessary votes, leaving six contenders. The next day, Suella Braverman was eliminated after securing the least number of votes, leaving five candidates. 

The third round of voting knocked out Tom Tugendhat after he picked up the least number of votes (31). Badenoch was next to be knocked out after securing 59 votes, leaving Truss, Sunak and Mordaunt as the final three. Mordaunt, then the frontrunner according to the political odds, saw her lead over Truss evaporate in the final round of voting, setting up the Truss vs. Sunak showdown for the top job.

888

£30 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus When You Place Your First Bet of £10

Bet Now

18+. Min deposit £/€/$10 • A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £/€/$10 • Min odds 1/2 (1.50) • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns • Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager the bonus amount 40 times within 14 days • Casino Bonus expires after 60 days • https://www.begambleaware.org • Withdrawal restrictions, payment methods, country & T&C's Apply

Liz Truss, -1200

Truss has the momentum and it doesn't look like changing anytime soon. She's been far from perfect in the TV debates but her support for Brexit and Boris Johnson has her in strong standing compared to rival Sunak, who has been portrayed by some as disloyal to his former boss for leading the resignations that ultimately led to Johnson's downfall.

As her position solidified over the summer, Truss was initially pegged as the third favorite behind Sunak and Mordaunt. Having opened around +600 (6/1), her odds were cut down to +300 (3/1) before settling around +400 (4/1) after she survived the first two rounds of voting with the help of some big-name supporters, including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries.

They have continued to improve since then and now sit at a massive -1200 (1/12), recognition of solid showings vs. Sunak in their head-to-head debates and perhaps hinting at an underlying weakness in her rival's campaign. The pair clashed particularly fiercely over their taxation plans, with Sunak arguing Truss would "tip millions into misery", while Truss shot back, saying Sunak would lead the UK into a recession.,

Truss was a Johnson supporter and an enthusiastic Brexit convert after campaigning for Remain in 2016. This might make her popular among hard-line Brexiters and right-leaning Conservative voters, but she is tremendously unpopular with the general public.

Rishi Sunak, +650

Rishi is in trouble and his campaign is on life support. Sunak consistently topped every round of MP voting, ending the contest with 137 votes to Truss' 113. However, the two candidates now must campaign to the party membership, and that's where Truss has a clear edge. As a result, Sunak's odds have continued to drift out and he now has less than a 14% chance of winning.

Sunak launched his campaign to become Tory leader almost immediately after Johnson's resignation speech, making the announcement on social media with a nifty video and a catchy slogan accompanied by his website, Ready4Rishi. 

FansBet

Bet £10, Get £10 + 5 Extra Spins

Bet Now

Offer for new customers who register via Mobile; Place first £10 bet on sports with 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet credited after the qualifying bet has settled; Free Multiple Bet must contain 3 legs at odds of 1.3 or greater per leg; Free Bet stakes not returned; No wagering requirements on winnings; £100 max win; T&C’s apply; 18+

The former Treasury Chief’s bid comes as no surprise – after he was among the most high-profile to resign from Johnson’s cabinet, sparking an avalanche of resignations that ultimately forced Johnson to grudgingly admit defeat. 

Ladbrokes installed Sunak as the early favorite in a crowded field. He briefly fell behind Mordaunt but his odds bounced back, a good sign, and he was expected to offer a strong challenge to Truss in the head-to-head run-off. But he can't stop losing ground, according to Ladbrokes, drifting from +120 (6/5) out to +650 (13/2). Truss looks almost unstoppable at this stage.

As the former Chancellor, Sunak is vulnerable on the economy and with the UK gripped by a cost of living crisis, he faces a serious challenge in altering the perception that he's at least partially responsible. His "betrayal" of Johnson is also a big negative to some Conservative party members who believe the former PM should not have stepped down.

How Does The Voting Work?

Eight MPs qualified for the Tory leadership contest by securing the support of 20 colleagues. From there, MPs voted almost daily and the candidate with the lowest number of votes was eliminated until only two remained.

Former Health Secretary and Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt (18 votes) and Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi (25) both exited the race on Wednesday, July 13, after failing to reach the required 30-vote threshold to remain in contention. Attorney General Suella Braverman was eliminated from contention next, after picking up the fewest votes of the six contenders.

Bet UK

Bet £10, Get £30 in Free Bets

Bet Now

T&Cs apply. New customers on mobile only. 7 days to claim and stake £10 minimum bet at odds of 1.5 or greater to qualify. Free, void, cashed out or partially cashed out bets do not qualify. Max 3x £10 free bets credited on bet settlement. Free bets must be used on 4 or more selections with selection odds of 1.3 or greater. Free bets are non-withdrawable and stake not returned with winnings. 7 day expiry. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

The third round of voting knocked out Chairman of Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat – one of the first to throw his hat in the ring after Johnson's resignation speech. Tugendhat received the fewest votes (31).

Then, Kemi Badenoch was eliminated as the field was whittled down to just three remaining candidates. At that point, the writing was on the wall for Mordaunt, who finished last in the voting and exited the race to leave Truss and Sunak as the final two candidates.

They must now campaign to around 160,000 Conservative party members, who get to choose the winner via a postal vote with the result declared on Sept. 5.

mr.play

Bet £10, Get £10

Bet Now

T&C's Apply, 21+, Please Gamble Responsibly.

Who Bowed Out Of The Race?

Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, once priced at +10000, decided not to run in the Tory leadership race. Levelling up minister Michael Gove, sacked by Johnson the day before his resignation, also bowed out of the race and threw his support behind Kemi Badenoch. 

Leo Vegas

Bet £10 get £10 free in-play

Bet Now

T&Cs apply. New reg only. Claim by placing a min deposit £10 via "My Offers" page within 30 days. Skrill/Neteller deposits excl. 7 days to stake max £10 in-play. Max. extra winnings £100. 18+ BeGambleAware.org.

Ben Wallace, an initial frontrunner when markets first went live, also decided against entering the race, while the likes of Grant Shapps and Priti Patel were once considered potential contenders but gained little traction.

Sajid Javid, who at one point was available around +2500 on the odds board, pulled out of the contest at the last minute having failed to secure the support of 20 MPs.

888

£30 In Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus When You Place Your First Bet of £10

Bet Now

18+. Min deposit £/€/$10 • A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £/€/$10 • Min odds 1/2 (1.50) • Free Bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days • Free Bet stakes not included in returns • Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager the bonus amount 40 times within 14 days • Casino Bonus expires after 60 days • https://www.begambleaware.org • Withdrawal restrictions, payment methods, country & T&C's Apply

About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.