NFL Week 12 Betting Takeaways: Road Teams Dominating ATS
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Bookies.com NFL betting expert and handicapper Adam Thompson looks back every Monday at the key betting trends that emerged from the weekend and flags some enticing early lines that NFL bettors might want to jump on.
Home teams once again took care of business in Week 12 of the NFL season, going 10-3 overall. But against the spread, the road teams continued to rule.
The host has won a decent 53.1% of all NFL games this season. But if you’re looking for a cover, look to the visitor. Road teams are 99-72-4 against the spread in NFL betting this season, a whopping 57.9% cover rate.
No group has covered more than road team underdogs, who went 6-4 ATS in Week 12 and are now 67-45-3 (59.8%) on the season. Six teams have covered in every instance as a road dog, led by 3-0 records for the Seahawks and 49ers. Only one team has failed to cover in that situation: the Bears (0-2).
Here’s a look back at Week 12 and a quick look ahead to Week 13:
Streaks Live On …
Broncos Woes Continue
Denver kept several unfortunate streaks going in Sunday’s 20-3 loss at Buffalo. The Broncos fell to 1-8 in its last 10 road games against the AFC East and failed to cover the spread for the seventh time in eight tries prior to an AFC West divisional showdown. The Under finish (O/U was 37) was the 15th time in 18 games the Broncos game finished Under when they’re underdogs.
It wasn’t pretty, but the Seahawks took care of the Eagles 17-9 to win the game after their bye week for the eighth time in nine years. The low score assured the Under hit for the eighth game in a row when Seattle faces an NFC East opponent during the day.
For the Eagles, they failed to cover for the sixth time in a row at home when coming off a loss. Zack Ertz had a huge day (12 receptions, 91 yards, one TD) and scored for the fifth-straight home game against the NFC West.
New Orleans Comes Through
The Saints edged the Panthers 34-31 on a last-second field goal, moving to 9-2 while sending Carolina to 5-6. For the 10th time in 11 meetings, the Carolina-New Orleans underdog covered (the Panthers were +10). It was the ninth-consecutive game the Over hit when these teams faced off.
MVP candidates continued to get it done. Saints WR Michael Thomas scored for the eighth time in 10 day games, while Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey scored a TD for the ninth time in 10 Sunday games.
… And Streaks End
Chicago held off the New York Football Giants for a 19-14 home victory, keeping the Bears’ playoff hopes afloat (5-6). The Bears bucked several trends while pulling it out. They had lost three home games in a row when favored over the NFC East, but Chicago (-6) held on anyway. The Under once again hit in a Chicago game, but it was the first time the Over failed to hit in eight Giants road games.
Individually, the game snapped a run of Tarik Cohen scoring a TD in seven of the last nine home day games. Saquon Barkley had scored a TD in five of the last seven times the Giants were road underdogs until Sunday.
Washington Gets It Done
The Redskins picked up their second win, a 19-16 nail-biter over the Lions. That snapped a nine-game home losing streak. It also snapped a 7-0 run of Over games when Washington was at home against the NFC North. Detroit, meanwhile, had covered in four straight against Washington and had won the first quarter in five-straight games against the NFC.
Jets Soar as Underdogs
The Jets were three-point home underdogs, but that didn’t mean much in a 34-3 demolition of the Raiders. The result shattered a number of runs. Oakland had won 16 of its last 18 when favored against AFC competition and had won the first quarter five games in a row against the AFC East.
Jets RB Le’Veon Bell had scored in six-straight Sunday home games and Raiders TE Foster Moreau had scored in four of the last five Raiders day games. Both were blanked in Week 12.
Best Pick Of Week 12
Bills (-4) over Broncos
Host Buffalo is an enigma on offense, but who needs offense when your defense can shut down the opposition? The Bills held Broncos QB Brandon Allen to 85 yards on 10-of-25 passing and Buffalo’s offense did just as it wanted, running 48 times with 25 pass attempts. The Bills controlled the clock and won 20-3, dropping the Broncos to 0-7 ATS in games played on turf.
Worst Pick Of Week 12
Raiders (-3) over Jets
I didn’t miss any of my Best Bets this week, but this was the biggest dud on The Grid. While I did take the Under (which it), I jumped on board the Raiders, their hot starts and recent success against the AFC. But the Jets blasted Derek Carr and Oakland by a tune of 34-3, outgaining them 401-207. Just as it finally clicked at some point for the Raiders, maybe it’s now clicking for the Jets, who have won three straight.
A Quick Look Ahead
Lines change throughout the week. Here are three to consider for Week 13 before they move:
Saints (-6.5) at Falcons
The Falcons shocked the Saints in New Orleans 26-9 three weeks ago. Now the rematch on Thanksgiving. New Orleans will be motivated to prove that early meeting was a fluke, while banged-up Atlanta just got trounced by Jameis Winston and Tampa Bay.
Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Raiders
Oakland looked miserable in a 34-3 rout at the hands of the two-win Jets. Now the Raiders head to Arrowhead to face a rested Chiefs team coming off its bye week. The Raiders have covered just once in their last six trips to KC.
Buccaneers (+1.5) at Jaguars
Winston is highly inconsistent but the Bucs put up points regardless. Jacksonville’s passing offense has been a disappointment since Nick Foles returned, and the Bucs’ No. 2-ranked run defense can limit Leonard Fournette.