NFL Week 7 Betting Takeaways: The Bridgewater Beat Goes On
Bookies.com NFL betting expert Adam Thompson looks back every Monday at the key betting trends that emerged from the weekend and flags some enticing early lines that NFL bettors might want to jump on.
The New Orleans Saints haven’t missed a beat since Teddy Bridgewater took over for Drew Brees in Week 2. Those who have backed Bridgewater and the Saints haven’t missed a payout, either.
The Bridgewater-led Saints have not only won all five games since he’s taken over under center, they’ve covered in all five. That includes Sunday’s impressive 36-25 victory at Chicago in a game that was not as close as the score indicated.
In four of the five victories, the Saints have been the underdog. Bridgewater is now an otherworldly 16-2 against the spread as an underdog over his career.
Here’s a look back at NFL betting in Week 7 and a quick look ahead to Week 8:
Streaks Live On …
Seahawks Runs Continue
The road team has covered the spread in the Seahawks’ last nine games, including Sunday’s 30-16 victory by the Ravens in the Pacific Northwest. The Over is now 13-3 in Seattle’s last 16 games.
Raiders Reverse Trifecta
The Raiders were destroyed by Aaron Rodgers (429 yards, six total TDs, perfect QB rating) and left Lambeau Field with a 42-24 loss.
The outcome kept three Oakland trends going. The Over hit for the sixth time in seven Raiders road games. The 7-3 deficit at the end of the first quarter also marked the seventh games in a row they trailed after one quarter against NFC opponents. Oakland also fell to 0-10 ATS on the road when coming off a win.
Fade the Unbeaten
The 49ers were 9.5-point favorites at Washington. They failed to cover, fighting both the Redskins’ respectable defense and sloppy conditions. San Francisco was held to three field goals, but that was enough to win 9-0.
The Niners have been a brutal team to back when favored – they’re 2-15 ATS in their last 17 when they’re supposed to win.
… And Streaks End
Atlanta had covered in eight of nine against the NFC West. But that streak was emphatically snapped in a 37-10 home loss to the Rams. The Falcons are now 1-6, with three of the last four defeats by at least two TDs.
One streak that continued Sunday in Atlanta:
With Sunday’s win over the Falcons, the @RamsNFL are now 6-0 when playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the Sean McVay era (since 2017).— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) October 20, 2019
They are the only undefeated team in the Eastern Time Zone over that span.#LARvsATL | #LARams
Over/Under No More
The Under was 9-1 when the Colts and Texans played in Indianapolis. That run was watered by Indy’s 30-23 home win on an O/U of 46.5. On streak that did continue: Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins has now scored a TD in five-straight AFC South games.
Meanwhile, the Under had hit in 10 straight games between teams in the NFC North. That streak was crushed by 29 points on Sunday in the Vikings’ 42-30 road win over the Lions.
Dolphins Reward Backers
Miami couldn’t pick up its first win over the season, falling 31-21 at Buffalo. But the Dolphins were certainly competitive – they trailed 24-21 late before the Bills scored a TD on an onside kick return. The Dolphins covered as 17-point underdogs, just the second time in nine games they’ve finished on the right side of the spread.
Best Pick Of Week 7
Ravens (+3) over Seahawks
Seattle was 5-1 before Sunday, but four of the five wins were by four points or less and it hasn’t been impressive at home. The Seahawks had no answer for Lamar Jackson’s legs (116 yards, one TD) and Baltimore’s defense scored a pair of TDs in a 30-16 victory.
Russell Wilson hadn’t thrown an INT before the Ravens came to town and he was 21-3 when completing more than 65 percent of his passes. I didn’t see that happening against a Ravens defense only allowed that number three out of six times and was adding Pro Bowl CB Marcus Peters from a Rams trade. Wilson completed just 49 percent and Peters had a pick-six.
Worst Pick Of Week 7
Chargers (+2.5) at Titans
This is less a bad pick as it was a bad beat. Los Angeles had the ball at the 1-yard line seemingly forever and went for the win rather than the tie. But Melvin Gordon fumbled with just seconds to go, the Titans recovered and held on for a 23-20 win and a cover by a half-point.
Chargers got to the one-yard line and:— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) October 20, 2019
1. Got 10 free seconds from Mike Vrabel
2. Committed a false start
3. Drew DPI
4. Got a touchdown
5. Had it reversed
6. Ran the ball again
A Quick Look Ahead
NFL lines change throughout the week. Here are three to consider for Week 8 before they move:
Eagles (+2) at Bills
The Eagles defense has given up 38 and 37 points the last two weeks, and the Bills defense ranks No. 3 in the NFL in yards allowed. Yet the Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six against above-.500 teams and the Bills have played just one winning team – they lost at home to the Patriots. Philly’s defense might have the matchups to disrupt Josh Allen and Buffalo.
Colts (-6.5) vs. Broncos
Joe Flacco was dreadful on Thursday in a 30-6 home loss to the Chiefs, and three of his six TDs this season came in Week 4. The Colts have won their last two games by six and by seven points, and those were against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and Deshaun Watson and the Colts. Denver is on a 1-6 ATS slide in Indy.
Browns (+10.5) at Patriots
Baker Mayfield is a turnover machine and no defense goes for the ball more than the one in New England. That said, the Browns’ “us against the world” mantra has been successful away from home, with a 20-point win over the Jets, a 15-point win at the Ravens and four covers in their last five on the road. Cleveland’s defense has been great against passing teams and it lost by four to the Seahawks and seven to the Rams. This might be too many points.