Mega Millions Jackpot Odds Compared to Unlikely Life Events & Sports Betting Parlays

The Mega Millions jackpot has reached $800 million for its drawing Tuesday night, with a cash value of more than $400 million. The odds of winning are 302,575,350-1. 

This is the seventh-largest Mega Millions and U.S. lottery prize ever. The Mega Millions biggest jackpot was $1.602 billion in August 2023. Only 2 people have won it this year.

The prize would be paid out over 30 years via an annuity, or paid in one cash sum.

Odds In Real Life Vs Powerball

Here are some “real life” events with the odds they carry in comparison to the 302,575,350-1 odds of the Mega Millions Jackpot. 

The numbers drawn Friday were: 6, 23, 41, 59, and 63, plus the Mega Ball was 25.

Mega Millions tickets cost $2. Players select six numbers from two separate pools of numbers - between 1 and 70 for the white balls, then select one number between 1 and 25 for the gold Mega Ball. 

Playing Every Combination Is Costly

At the price of $2 per ticket, that means you could buy every possible combination for $605,200,000 

So you will have to wait for the jackpot to roll over at least two or three more times for this strategy to make sense. Let's say you do spend $605,200,000, and somehow are able to logistically play the field, even though it would take you about 29 years to fill out those tickets. 

You run the risk of having more than one winner. In that scenario, the jackpot is divided by the number of winning tickets. If you and just one other person win, you'll be in a serious hole before taxes.

Then, there is the Tax Man. After taxes (depending on your home state), you can expect to net anywhere between 45-60% of whatever you do win. The estimated lump-sum payout is sure to increase. But save yourself a few hundred million and limit your ticket purchases. 

Trying To Hit Mega Millions At The Sportsbook

It's hard to find longer odds than the ones on the Mega Millions website, unless you're playing Powerball. But how does that translate to the world of sports betting, or real life? Let's take a look.

Well, 302,575,350-1 is a big number, especially for bettors who are used to seeing value in a +125 moneyline. 

The highest price one would ever see on any legal wager is +1000000. That means you would win $10,000 on a $1 bet, on odds of 10,000-1. The implied probability of that bet is 0.01%.

How might you go about getting a Mega Millions-like return at a sportsbook or on your sports betting app? The answer lies in the mighty parlay – and the book’s willingness to take on such a risk. 

On a $1 bet, the payout for an eight-leg parlay with the odds of each leg averaging +1050 would be about $300 million. Good, but not good enough.

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