By Adam Thompson | | 5 mins
5 Best NFL Draft Prop Bets & Picks You Should Be Backing
There are hundreds of NFL futures prop picks available for the 2020 NFL Draft, which begins Thursday with the first round, live from Roger Goodell’s basement. Sifting through all the options can be dizzying. Fortunately, Bookies.com has done it for you.
Here are the five NFL Draft best bets and how to play them.
Prop: No. 3 Overall Pick
Pick: Jeff Okudah (+125 at FanDuel)
Joe Burrow is going No. 1, Chase Young is going No. 2. You can bet on each of those and win, though you’d need to risk $10,000 on each to win $100. Let’s lock in on a spot where money can be made without such risk.
The Lions own the No. 3 pick and they’ve made it clear the phone lines are open. They could trade this pick to a team hungry enough to add Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa. But Tagovailoa’s draft stock is reportedly not as strong as it was a month ago. And more importantly for Detroit, there’s a player on the board who will immediately help the team.
Okudah, the shutdown corner from Ohio State, is far and away the top defensive back in the field. He plays the type of physical style Lions coach Matt Patricia likes, and he can go opposite the acquired Desmond Trufant to help improve last year’s 31st-ranked pass defense.
The Lions aren’t going to be a contender unless it dramatically improves pass defense, and adding Okudah helps immediately. Unless the Jaguars or Dolphins blow the doors off the Lions with an amazing trade offer, it would be a mistake for the Lions to look anywhere other than Okudah.
I locked this in at +175 a month ago, but it’s still a plus pick worth backing.
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Prop: First Three Picks In Order
Pick: Burrow-Young-Okudah (+125 at FanDuel)
Anyone other than Burrow would be a catastrophe for the Bengals. The Redskins may entertain offers at No. 2, but Young is too special of a talent to skip over.
Ultimately, I think Okudah is too good to pass up as well at No. 3 for Detroit. With Tagovailoa’s draft stock potentially slipping, it lessens the likelihood a team sacrifices enough to entice the Lions to move down. At plus odds, it’s worth a wager.
Prop: Team To Draft Tua Tagovailoa
Pick: Dolphins (+125 at William Hill)
To some NFL teams, Tagovailoa is a left-handed, often-injured, short QB who isn’t worth the risk to take with a high pick. To others, he has everything you want out of a modern NFL quarterback.
The latter has too much temptation for a team that needs a boost like the Dolphins, who own the No. 5 pick. Miami has been looking for a franchise QB since Dan Marino retired, and it’s highly likely it pulls the trigger on either Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert at No. 5.
With questions about Tua mounting, it’s less likely a team trades up to No. 3 or No. 4 to get him. That means he’s there for the Dolphins. I (unfortunately) locked in Miami at -140, so to get Tua at these odds is too tempting.
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Prop: Most 1st-Round Players, SEC vs. All Other Conferences
Pick: All Other Conferences (-290 at William Hill)
The SEC has consistently had more NFL-ready players than any other college conference lately. It’s led in most first-rounders in seven of the last eight NFL Drafts. It will have a lot again in 2020, but 17 out of 32 is a stretch.
No conference has ever had more than 12 in a first round. The SEC should have no fewer than 12 again this year. There are seven others with an outside shot, but five of them would have to be selected. I think 15 is a realistic number. I locked this one in as soon as it came out, when All Others was just -110. The current price may offer some pause, but worst-case scenario is a push.
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Prop: First Wide Receiver Selected
Pick: CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (+110 at PointsBet)
This one is about team preference, between Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb and Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy is more likely to step in and contribute in Week 1 — he’s NFL ready. But Lamb’s potential to be the best of the class is too much to pass over. His breakaway speed and explosiveness can’t be ignored.
The odds were +145 when I locked in Lamb. Now it’s a toss-up between Lamb and Jeudy, but history suggest teams will go with the high-ceiling guy over the sure thing, all other aspects being close to equal.