By Adam Thompson | | 8 mins
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Free Picks & SNF Predictions
One of sports’ historic rivalries resumes on Sunday Night Football, as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers host Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears. The Packers come off their bye week with a 9-3 record, firmly in the lead of the NFC North and No. 2 in the NFC overall.
The Bears (4-8) are just trying to locate an identity, and it likely starts with Fields, the rookie QB who returns after a two-week absence. Green Bay has beaten Chicago in 15 of the last 18 meetings.
Take a look at Bears vs. Packers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
Bears vs. Packers Key Matchups
Packers RBs vs. Bears Defense: The Bears have allowed only nine TDs to opposing running backs, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have 11 TDs between them.
Aaron Rodgers vs. Bears DBs: Rodgers has 57 TDs and 10 INTs in 26 career games vs. the Bears. He is 21-5 vs. Chicago over his career.
Justin Fields’ Legs vs. Packers Spy: Green Bay has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to QBs. Fields ranks fourth among QBs in rushing despite missing two games.
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5 Key Bears vs. Packers Stats
5: Interceptions by the Chicago defense through 12 games; only the Jets have fewer picks. Aaron Rodgers has tossed two INTs since Week 2.
7: The number of Packers receivers with at least 200 yards. Davante Adams has a massive 1,083 yards, but six others are between 204 and 375.
7.2: The ppg average uptick by the Packers offense at home compared to on the road. They’re averaging 27.8 ppg at Lambeau.
87.3: The yards per game average for WR Darnell Mooney in Chicago victories. His average in losses is 46.5.
109.5: Receiving yards per game over the last two games for WR Davante Adams. Green Bay is 8-1 when Adams plays and gets more than 60 receiving yards and 0-2 when he doesn’t.
Bears vs. Packers Weather Forecast
A Sunday night at Lambeau Field sounds daunting from a weather perspective, but it will be seasonable for this Week 14 matchup. Temperatures should be in the mid-30s during the game, and unfortunately a scenic snow landscape isn’t expected.
Bears vs. Packers Player Props
Justin Fields, Under 226.5 Total Yards
Odds: -115 at DraftKings
Fields makes his return to the Bears lineup, but let’s not get too hyped. In the seven games he’s started and finished, he’s totaled 227-plus yards just twice, and one barely got over. He averages 200.8 ypg overall, so we’re not going to pick Over against a Packers defense that ranks eighth vs. the run and 10th vs. the pass.
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Darnell Mooney, Over 3.5 Receptions
Odds: -115 at DraftKings
Mooney has five receptions in Chicago’s last three games, and at least five receptions in eight out of 12 games. Allen Robinson’s return and Justin Fields’ existence doesn’t help matters, but Mooney has become a player worth finding in the offense.
Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Darnell Mooney 50+ Receiving Yards
Odds: +150 at FOX Bet
Adams had hit 46-plus yards in seven of the last eight games vs. Chicago and 50-plus in all but one game this season. Mooney should be a priority – when he gets 50-plus the Bears are 3-2 (compared to 1-6 when he doesn’t). MVS is the wild card but he’s seen a season-high in receptions and targets the last two weeks, and gone for 123 and 50 yards in them. He averages 21.6 ypc vs. Chicago lifetime.
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Bears vs. Packers Moneyline
When it comes to NFL betting on the moneyline, favored Green Bay is a hefty -630 on the moneyline, while Chicago is set at +450.
Clearly the Packers are the better team, clearly they’re playing better right now, and they’ve dominated this series in a way few teams have dominated another. The price is considerable, but it’s tough to imagine a Bears win at Lambeau on Sunday night.
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Bears vs. Packers Point Spread
The Packers are favored by 12.5 points on a point spread line that has pushed in Green Bay’s favor since opening at -11. Green Bay is a stellar 10-2 against the spread this season, including a perfect 5-0 at Lambeau Field. That includes 14 and 18-point wins as a favorite of 8.5 and 11.5.
It’s certainly a large number, but when it comes to fading the Bears, no number has been big enough. They’ve been an underdog of 7.5 or more points four times this season, and are 0-4 ATS in those games, losing by an average of 21.5 ppg. We’re taking Green Bay at this number. Grab the Packers -12.5 (-108) at FanDuel.
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Bears vs. Packers Totals
NFL sportsbooks have posted an Over/Under of 44 points for Sunday Night Football – that number has dropped 1.5 points since opening, thanks to the defensive trends for each side.
This is the lowest Over/Under of any Packers game this season, but the last time these teams played the game totaled only 38, a 24-14 Packers win at Soldier Field. Two of the last three Bears games with Fields at QB have gone Over, and the Packers are the best when it comes to churning clock.
But trends go both ways: The Over has hit in five of the last six Bears games following their bye, but the Under is 5-1 in the last six when the Packers are favored. We’re not including the total in part of any NFL picks ticket for Week 14.
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