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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Free Picks & SNF Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 8 mins

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Free Picks & SNF Predictions

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One of sports’ historic rivalries resumes on Sunday Night Football, as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers host Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears. The Packers come off their bye week with a 9-3 record, firmly in the lead of the NFC North and No. 2 in the NFC overall.

The Bears (4-8) are just trying to locate an identity, and it likely starts with Fields, the rookie QB who returns after a two-week absence. Green Bay has beaten Chicago in 15 of the last 18 meetings.

Betting sites and most betting apps have host Green Bay at -12.5 in the latest Bears vs. Packers NFL spreads range, a big move from the -11 opening odds.

Take a look at Bears vs. Packers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Bears vs. Packers Key Matchups

Packers RBs vs. Bears Defense: The Bears have allowed only nine TDs to opposing running backs, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have 11 TDs between them.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Bears DBs: Rodgers has 57 TDs and 10 INTs in 26 career games vs. the Bears. He is 21-5 vs. Chicago over his career.

Justin Fields’ Legs vs. Packers Spy: Green Bay has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to QBs. Fields ranks fourth among QBs in rushing despite missing two games.

RELATED: NFL Week 14 Odds & Betting Lines For Every Game

5 Key Bears vs. Packers Stats

5: Interceptions by the Chicago defense through 12 games; only the Jets have fewer picks. Aaron Rodgers has tossed two INTs since Week 2.

7: The number of Packers receivers with at least 200 yards. Davante Adams has a massive 1,083 yards, but six others are between 204 and 375.

7.2: The ppg average uptick by the Packers offense at home compared to on the road. They’re averaging 27.8 ppg at Lambeau.

87.3: The yards per game average for WR Darnell Mooney in Chicago victories. His average in losses is 46.5.

109.5: Receiving yards per game over the last two games for WR Davante Adams. Green Bay is 8-1 when Adams plays and gets more than 60 receiving yards and 0-2 when he doesn’t.

Bears vs. Packers Weather Forecast

A Sunday night at Lambeau Field sounds daunting from a weather perspective, but it will be seasonable for this Week 14 matchup. Temperatures should be in the mid-30s during the game, and unfortunately a scenic snow landscape isn’t expected.

Bears vs. Packers Player Props

Justin Fields, Under 226.5 Total Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Fields makes his return to the Bears lineup, but let’s not get too hyped. In the seven games he’s started and finished, he’s totaled 227-plus yards just twice, and one barely got over. He averages 200.8 ypg overall, so we’re not going to pick Over against a Packers defense that ranks eighth vs. the run and 10th vs. the pass.

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Darnell Mooney, Over 3.5 Receptions

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Mooney has five receptions in Chicago’s last three games, and at least five receptions in eight out of 12 games. Allen Robinson’s return and Justin Fields’ existence doesn’t help matters, but Mooney has become a player worth finding in the offense.

Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Darnell Mooney 50+ Receiving Yards

Odds: +150 at FOX Bet

Adams had hit 46-plus yards in seven of the last eight games vs. Chicago and 50-plus in all but one game this season. Mooney should be a priority – when he gets 50-plus the Bears are 3-2 (compared to 1-6 when he doesn’t). MVS is the wild card but he’s seen a season-high in receptions and targets the last two weeks, and gone for 123 and 50 yards in them. He averages 21.6 ypc vs. Chicago lifetime.

RELATED: NFL Week 14 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game

Bears vs. Packers Moneyline

When it comes to NFL betting on the moneyline, favored Green Bay is a hefty -630 on the moneyline, while Chicago is set at +450.

Clearly the Packers are the better team, clearly they’re playing better right now, and they’ve dominated this series in a way few teams have dominated another. The price is considerable, but it’s tough to imagine a Bears win at Lambeau on Sunday night.

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Bears vs. Packers Point Spread

The Packers are favored by 12.5 points on a point spread line that has pushed in Green Bay’s favor since opening at -11. Green Bay is a stellar 10-2 against the spread this season, including a perfect 5-0 at Lambeau Field. That includes 14 and 18-point wins as a favorite of 8.5 and 11.5.

It’s certainly a large number, but when it comes to fading the Bears, no number has been big enough. They’ve been an underdog of 7.5 or more points four times this season, and are 0-4 ATS in those games, losing by an average of 21.5 ppg. We’re taking Green Bay at this number. Grab the Packers -12.5 (-108) at FanDuel.

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Bears vs. Packers Totals

NFL sportsbooks have posted an Over/Under of 44 points for Sunday Night Football – that number has dropped 1.5 points since opening, thanks to the defensive trends for each side.

This is the lowest Over/Under of any Packers game this season, but the last time these teams played the game totaled only 38, a 24-14 Packers win at Soldier Field. Two of the last three Bears games with Fields at QB have gone Over, and the Packers are the best when it comes to churning clock.

But trends go both ways: The Over has hit in five of the last six Bears games following their bye, but the Under is 5-1 in the last six when the Packers are favored. We’re not including the total in part of any NFL picks ticket for Week 14.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.