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Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Best Bets: Black Friday Edition

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

Dolphins vs. Jets Predictions, Picks & Best Bets: Black Friday Edition

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The NFL begins a Black Friday tradition this season and it starts with one of the premier offenses on the stage, as Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins head to the Big Apple to face Sauce Gardner and the New York Jets. 

The Dolphins (7-3) lead the AFC East but only slightly ahead of the Bills. They’re paced by an offense that leads the NFL in scoring and yards gained. On the total opposite side of the scoring spectrum, the Jets are benching Zach Wilson in favor of Tim Boyle to try and spark a unit that ranks 30th in scoring and yards. 

Miami is laying 10 points in the latest Dolphins vs. Jets Black Friday NFL odds. The Over/Under is set at 41 points.

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 62-64% of his NFL picks three years running, reveals his plays for the Black Friday NFL matchup. 

Dolphins vs. Jets Odds

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Dolphins vs. Jets Point Spread

Tua and Miami have scored more points than any team. But they’ve had their moments of limitations. In fact, they’ve scored 20 or less in three of the last four games. 

That offers hope to a Jets team that has forced the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen into some of their poorer games. 

But Tim Boyle? He came in relief of last week’s game vs. the Bills and went 7-for-14 for 33 yards and an INT. He has three starts to his name and they all went poorly, with a career QB rating of 50.9. 

Zach Wilson may not have been the answer, but Boyle isn’t likely to be. And against a Miami defense that’s top 10 vs. the run, there isn’t a clear path to moving the ball. 

Five of Miami’s seven wins have come by 12 points or more, and all but at least one TD (and last week vs. Vegas should have been). Back Miami to cover the double-digit spread on Friday night.

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Dolphins vs. Jets Over/Under

Both these teams are daring oddsmakers to set lower lines. The Under has hit in the Jets’ last five games, while it’s 3-1 in the Dolphins’ last four. This is the lowest total for a Miami game this season. But given how Miami’s offense has gone of late, it makes sense to look at the Under again here. 

We have little confidence New York is going to score, but Miami – in the cold northeastern night air – might not light it up either. The spread is our top play, but the Under is worth considering as well on Black Friday. 

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Dolphins vs. Jets Moneyline

We’re picking the Dolphins to cover the 10-point spread, but what about a straight-up wager? It’s a rich one: Miami is -520 on the moneyline (wager $520 to win $100 in profit), while New York is +390 on the betting apps (wager $100 to win $390). 

Miami has won every game in which it’s been favored. It’s difficult to imagine Tim Boyle outdueling Tua, unless overconfidence pops in. We’ve seen the Jets’ defense do some pretty good things against good opposition. With the price so high, we’ll skip the moneyline.

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Dolphins vs. Jets Top Player Props

Tyreek Hill, Over 74.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Gardner is among the premier corners in football, but he doesn’t always get matched up with the premier receiver on the other team. WR1’s tend to do very well against the Jets. 

While Stefon Diggs got shut down in Week 11, Davante Adams (6 catches, 86 yards), Keenan Allen (8-77), and A.J. Brown (7-131) went off vs. New York recently. 

Stopping Hill is the key to beating the Dolphins – they’re 6-0 when he goes over 90 yards and 1-3 when he doesn’t – but we don’t see that happening.

Tim Boyle, Over 160.5 Pass Yards 

Odds: -115 at Caesars Sportsbook

OK we’ve been trashing Boyle, but we’re also taking the Over? Frankly, this number is just too low for an NFL starter. The Dolphins are giving up 241 ypg through the air, and only once have they allowed under 174 (to Mac Jones, who had 200 in the other meeting this year). 

This would be a line on par with what Wilson accomplished, but the goal is to do better than the now-benched QB. Back the Over on Boyle at Caesars.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.