How Much Would You Make Betting On Lamar Jackson Each Week?
Bill Speros | 7 mins
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QB Lamar Jackson has accomplished much in his four NFL seasons, including league MVP honors. But he and the Ravens have enjoyed only limited success against the spread during his time in Baltimore.
Jackson's lone unrealized goal: A Super Bowl ring. He enters the 2022 season on the final year of his rookie deal. Talks have taken place sporadically in the offseason about an extension.
Those who bet on the NFL have been generous in their support of the Ravens in various NFL futures markets throughout Jackson’s time in Baltimore. But how have they done backing Jackson himself?
Jackson boasts plenty of impressive personal stats: A career 64.1% completion record, 9,967 yards passing and 3,673 yards rushing, all in the regular season.
As a starter, Jackson is 28-25 ATS on sports betting apps. The numbers include his performances in the postseason. Contrast that with Jackson’s 38-15 record outright as a starter, and you see how oddsmakers have overvalued the Ravens – at least in terms of NFL spreads.
Betting On Jackson (Barely) A Net Positive
Using our NFL against the spread system of betting $100 on Jackson ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available at most betting sites, those who backed Jackson weekly since his 2018 debut are up just $45.20 after three seasons. That barely covers lunch for 4 at McDonald’s.
Not all spreads are created equally. For this exercise, we are using the historic Ravens ATS records as noted via Pro Football Reference.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where the Ravens don’t lock up Jackson with an extension, but he’s in a contract year until we learn otherwise. Here's where he and the Ravens stand in terms of league MVP betting and other futures wagers.
Lamar Jackson 2022 Futures Bets
Lamar Jackson To Win NFL MVP
Odds: +2000 at DraftKings ➜
Jackson won this award in 2019. He missed five games last season, including the last four with a bruised bone in his ankle. He appears fully restored.
The Ravens are +2000 on the Super Bowl betting market, and have held steady at this price since the end of Super Bowl 56. Baltimore focused on building up its defense and secondary this offseason despite being ranked 26th against the run. Among the key losses: WRs Hollywood Brown and Sammy Watkins.
MVP voters have honored Aaron Rodgers for the past two seasons with lopsided victories. Jackson is one of about a dozen QBs with an arguable shot at this award, but your wagering budget would be better invested elsewhere.
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Lamar Jackson Props: Yards Passing
|Over 3,505.5 Yards Passing||+105 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 3,505.5 Yards Passing||-125 at DraftKings ➜|
Jackson enters 2022 having suffered a marked downgrade at the wideout position with the losses of Brown and Watkins. Combine that with continued deficiencies on the offensive line and Jackson will be moving more and throwing less.
Take the under on 3,505.5 yards passing for Jackson. Jackson ran for 1,005 yards in 2020 and 767 during his abbreviated 2021 season. Expect similar numbers this season, projected out over 17 games.
Lamar Jackson Props: Passing TDs
|Over 24.5 Passing TDS||-110 at DraftKings ➜|
|Under 24.5 Passing TDs||-110 at DraftKings ➜|
The Ravens have inexplicably pulled back when it comes to available options for Jackson. His No. 1 wideout two weeks before the start of the season is Rashod Bateman. (No relation to Jason.) That’s a serious slide from the likes of Brown and Watkins. The Ravens have one of the best young tight ends in the league in Mark Andrews. That won’t be enough for the besieged Jackson to hit this number.
Take the under on Jackson throwing 24.5 TD passes.