The 21 Most Intriguing Super Bowl Prop Bets To Back Sunday
The Super Bowl is the No. 1 betting event of the year in the USA, every year. This year will be no different with the marquee showdown between Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers facing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Sportsbooks have embraced the phenomenon, creating literally hundreds of prop bets to go along with the usual spread, total and moneyline wagers you find in NFL betting.
BookiesEDGE NFL handicapper Adam Thompson hit on 62% of his NFL picks this NFL season, including a whopping 86% over the last month. In addition to his game pick, he has scoured the piles of props. Below he reveals his 21 props for Super Bowl 2021.
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1. First play of game – Run (+100, FanDuel)
The Buccaneers own the most predictable offense in the league, but the opening play of the game has been an exception. Of their 19 games, they’ve opened with a run 10 times and a pass nine. The Chiefs, perhaps surprisingly, have started with a handoff in 13 of 18 games. Combined, their games have started with runs 62.2% of the time. We’re getting odds that suggest 50%.
2. Opening Kickoff – Touchback (-305, DraftKings)
The odds suggest an implied probability of 75.3%, which is well above the league average. But these teams rank second and fourth in the NFL in touchback percentage. Chiefs kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks 75.5% of the time, while Buccaneers kicks have wound up in the end zone a whopping 84.3% of the time.
3. Any Team Scoring 3 Times Unanswered – No (+175, BetMGM)
Both offenses can pour it on, and each can overwhelm an opponent. The Chiefs managed three straight scores against both the Browns and Bills in the playoffs, and did it to open the first matchup with the Buccaneers. But Tampa Bay’s defense is better than it was then. In what should be a close game, any team going on a 13-0 run or more seems less likely than the odds indicate.
4. Longest TD – Under 46.5 Yards (-115, FanDuel)
These are two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but even this is long for these teams. The Chiefs recorded five TDs in 18 games at this length – just two on offense, with an INT and a kickoff and punt return as well. The Buccaneers have had only four in 19 games, and only one was longer than 48 (a Ronald Jones 98-yard run).
5. Successful 2-Point Conversion – No (-305, DraftKings)
The implied probability is again about 25%, but I’ll take it. Each team attempted only four two-pointers all season; the Chiefs were a perfect 4-for-4, the Bucs were 0-for-4.
6. Field Goals – Over 3.5 (+112, DraftKings)
The teams combined for 3.9 successful field goals per game. In the playoffs, that number is a whopping 4.7. If they’re not scoring TDs, they’re scoring FGs. Plus odds on something that has, at worst, an average chance of happening.
7. Highest Scoring Quarter – 2nd (+165, FOX Bet)
Far and away, the second quarter is the most successful 15 minutes for each side. The Chiefs and Bucs each average 10.2 ppg in the quarter, tied for second-most. Combined, it’s the most-prolific scoring frame for opposing offenses, too.
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8. Fourth Quarter – Buccaneers ML (+100, FOX Bet)
Tampa Bay has been the league’s best fourth quarter team, not only ranking fifth in scoring but No. 1 in points allowed. Kansas City, which typically has leads going into the fourth, ranks 28th in fourth quarter defense. In Brady’s last four Super Bowls, his teams have averaged 12.5 ppg while allowing 3.0.
9. Cameron Brate – Over 27.5 Yards (-110, BetMGM)
The Chiefs defense ranks No. 2 in yards allowed to wideouts, but has been far less successful covering tight ends. The 59.6 ypg allowed is fifth-most. The Bucs have two potential TE targets – Brate and Rob Gronkowski – and some are going to believe in the Brady-to-Gronk magic reforming for the Big Game. But Rob has just 10 receptions the last seven games, Cameron has 11 in the last three.
10. Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Over 2.5 Receptions (+120, BetMGM)
The Bucs defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in rush yards allowed, but they rank No. 32 in receptions allowed to running backs. Passing to backs isn’t a strong suit of the Chiefs, but they may do what other teams have tried against the Bucs: Use the short pass game to offset the challenges of running on this defense.
11. Chiefs – Score First & Lose (+440, FOX Bet)
Brady-led Super Bowls teams haven’t scored first in the Super Bowl often, but they do win. A Chiefs opening score isn’t a death blow to Brady and the Bucs. The line is big enough to take a stab.
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12. Leonard Fournette – Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115, PointsBet)
While the Bucs have allowed the most receptions to running backs, they only rank 24th in receiving yards allowed to RBs. The Chiefs, on the other hand, rank last in that category. Fournette has become a strong weapon out of the backfield, tying for the lead in catches in the playoffs (14).
13. Tom Brady Score TD – Yes (+550, BetMGM)
Envisioning Brady sneaking one into the end zone seems laughable. But he has one rushing TD in the playoffs already, part of his nine carries for -1 yards postseason. He has four TDs this season, while only the Broncos and Chargers have allowed more rushing TDs than the Chiefs (7).
14. Leonard Fournette & Tyreek Hill To Score (+260, DraftKings)
Hill was an unstoppable force vs. the Bucs in the regular season and remains a TD threat every touch. Fournette is the goal-line option Tampa Bay has gravitated for and his newfound status as a pass-catcher adds additional value.
15. Patrick Mahomes – Over 0.5 INTs (+150, DraftKings)
Mahomes has tossed a pick in just five games all season. But he also passed for an NFL record 16 dropped interceptions. Luck was on his side, but the Buccaneers ranked fourth in INTs and had just two games when they didn’t force a turnover.
16. Mike Evans – Score TD (+115, PointsBet)
Evans had just one catch in the playoff win over the Saints. It was for a TD. He had only three receptions vs. the Packers. Including one TD. He’s become the top red zone target for Brady. We’ll take him at plus odds.
17. Mahomes/Brady – Same TD Amount (+425, DraftKings)
Brady passed for 40 TDs in the regular season, second only to Aaron Rodgers. Mahomes was right behind him at 38. Each team will lean on the QB. It’s not a stretch to see each throw for three TDs – or four. Or maybe two. Odds are too high.
18. Ronald Jones – Over 37.5 Yards (-115, PointsBet)
Fournette has become the go-to back in passing situations, but they still split the rushing workload. Jones has easily hit this mark in four of five games and his 4.9 ypc rank in the top 10 and prove he doesn’t need 15-20 carries to get there.
19. Tyreek Hill – Score TD (-164, PointsBet)
Hill hasn’t scored in the postseason, but he does have 17 receptions for 282 yards in just two games. There were only three regular-season games he didn’t score, and his best game all year was vs. these Bucs.
20. Tom Brady – Super Bowl MVP (+210, DraftKings)
Quarterbacks have won more than half the MVPs for the game. Bucs coach Bruce Arians is going to put the ball in Brady’s hands, and win or lose he’s going to play a massive part. If Tampa Bay wins, honors to the GOAT.
21. Tyreek Hill – Super Bowl MVP (+1400, FanDuel)
Mahomes’ odds are too low to back, but Hill has the explosive pedigree that MVP-winning WRs have possessed. The past five winning receivers have averaged nine catches for 149 yards. Hill had 9-172 his last game and 13-269 vs. Tampa Bay in Week 12.