NFL DFS Week 10 Value Plays & Best Picks
Jim Coventry | 9 mins
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After weeks of low-scoring games, we have finally started to see a few more high-scoring matchup as we approach Week 10 of the NFL season. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a trend. If it is, it’ll certainly increase our daily fantasy sports options. This week, we’ll focus on some of the higher-projected game totals to gain our DFS advantage.
NFL DFS Week 10 Main Slate, Ranked by Over/Under
- Jaguars vs Chiefs - 51
- Browns vs Dolphins - 49.5
- Lions vs Bears - 48.5
- Chargers vs 49ers - 45.5
- Seahawks vs Buccaneers - 44.5
- Vikings vs Bills - 43
- Cowboys vs Packers - 42.5
- Texans vs Giants - 41
- Colts vs Raiders - 40.5
- Cardinals vs Rams - 40.5
- Saints vs Steelers - 40
- Broncos vs Titans - 38
Highest Implied Team Totals
- Chiefs - 30
- Dolphins, 49ers - 26.25
- Bears - 25.75
- Cowboys - 23.75
- Buccaneers, Bills - 23.5
- Raiders - 23
- Giants, Lions, Browns - 22.75
- Seahawks, Rams - 21
- Saints - 20.75
- Jaguars - 20.5
- Titans - 20.25
- Vikings - 20
- Cardinals - 19.5
- Chargers, Steelers, Packers - 19.25
- Colts - 18.5
- Texans - 18.25
- Broncos 17.25
NFL DFS Week 10 Quarterbacks for FanDuel & DraftKings
Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. Browns - DK $6,700 FD $8,100
The Browns defense looked like an elite unit in their last game when they played the Bengals. But that game looks like an outlier. They’ve been one of the worst coverage units in the league. They have been slightly above average in their pressure rate (all ranks in this article Pro Football Focus). It’s unlikely the Browns get enough consistent pressure to rattle Tagovailoa.
Also, the Browns can’t risk blitzing and leaving fewer bodies in the secondary to deal with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Miami passing attack against the Brown secondary is a mismatch. We’re looking at another ceiling game for Tagovailoa in what may be a high-scoring game.
Justin Fields - Bears vs Lions - DK $6,500 FD $8,300
It doesn’t look like the Bears have any intention of putting the genie back in the bottle. Justin Fields is going to be a major rushing threat going forward. He’s scored a rushing TD in his last three games. He’s also rushed for at least 80 yards in three of his last four. In addition, he has at least one TD pass in his last five games while throwing five TD passes over the last two weeks.
If that’s not enough to get excited, he’s playing the Lions in a home game this week. Detroit gives up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs. They can’t stop the run or the pass. Facing this bottom-dwelling defense will allow Fields to have a big game both on the ground and through the air.
Jacoby Brissett - Browns at Dolphins - DK $5,400 FD $7,000
I expect the Dolphins-Browns game to be very high scoring. Although the opposing QB, Tua Tagovailoa is a strong DraftKings Fantasy play, Brissett is an excellent contrarian play at a much cheaper cost. He’ll face a Miami defense that’s been excellent against the run but can’t consistently stop the pass.
Even though Nick Chubb will have some success on the ground, the clear advantage for an offense is to attack the Miami secondary. Although he’s thrown just one TD pass in three of his last four games, Brissett has thrown for at least 258 yards in his last three games. He’s also rushed for a pair of scores over the last five games. He should be a low-rostered option with an upside.
Also Consider - Davis Mills, Kenny Pickett
NFL DFS Week 10 Running Backs for FanDuel & DraftKings
Saquon Barkley - Giants vs. Texans - DK $8,600 FD $9,500
In his last game, which was in Week 8 against the Seahawks, Barkley posted just 62 yards, which was his first game with less than 88 yards this year. Regardless, he’s handled at least 20 rushes and averaged three receptions over his last three games, so volume isn’t an issue. He’ll be facing a Houston defense that gives up 5.72 yards per carry, second-most in the league, and they also give up the most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.
There’s very little chance that the game script is unfavorable- even if the Texans get a lead, it wouldn’t likely be a large lead. And even if the game script goes sideways, Barkley can still get it done as a receiver. In any scenario, he should see plenty of work in the easiest matchup he’ll have all year.
Tony Pollard - Cowboys at Packers - DK $6,500 FD $7,000
Pollard started in Week 9 for an injured Ezekiel Elliott. Even though he tore up the Bears defense for 131 yards and three TDs on the ground, he only played 30 snaps, which was only about five more snaps than he sees in his typical role. Even though Elliott may return, Pollard may have earned a slight increase in his typical workload. So why do we like Pollard this week, if he’s not going to play 50 or more snaps?
He’ll be playing a Packers defense that gives up about five yards per carry. In addition, Dallas has a strong chance of playing with a lead in this road game. If they can build the lead to more than one score, Pollard could take on a closer role. That could allow the Cowboys the opportunity to rest Elliott, should he play.
Another factor helping Pollard is that the Packers will be without linebacker De’Vondre Campbell, who not only is one of their front-seven run defenders, but if Pollard catches passes, Campbell has been solid in pass defense, and Pollard is a strong receiver.
Jeff Wilson - Dolphins vs. Browns - DK $5,500 FD $6,500
It didn’t even take Wilson one week in Miami to play more snaps than Raheem Mostert. And don’t be surprised if the gap in work swings further in Wilson’s direction this week. Against the Bears last week, Wilson turned 12 touches into 72 yards and a TD. Meanwhile, Mostert’s nine touches netted just 26 yards.
Wilson has rushed for over five yards per carry this year, a career high. He’ll take aim at a Cleveland defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. And with the blazing speed the Dolphins have at WR, there’s literally no way that Cleveland will be able to assign extra defenders to stop the run. At a discount price on FanDuel Fantasy, we could see Wilson improve upon his impressive Miami debut in this matchup.
Also Consider - Travis Etienne, Dameon Pierce
NFL DFS Week 10 Wide Receivers for FanDuel & DraftKings
Tyreek Hill - Dolphins vs Browns - DK $9,100 FD $9,000
Hill is arguably the best offensive player in the NFL right now. He’s recorded at least 143 yards in three of Miami’s last four games. On the season, he already has five games with at least 143 yards. He’s also been targeted at least 12 times in the majority of his games. He’ll face a Cleveland defense that’s been below average in terms of production allowed to WRs.
However, the Browns have not played a difficult schedule of opposing WRs. Despite the favorable schedule, three WRs have already gone over 100 yards against them. They have not faced any player with the type of speed that Hill has. Based on what we’ve seen this year, the Browns won’t have any answers when trying to slow Hill down.
Amari Cooper - Browns at Dolphins - DK $6,500 FD $7,800
Cooper’s been somewhat inconsistent this year. Despite some ups and downs, he’s scored a TD in five of his last seven games. He also has a trio of games with at least 100 yards. Not only is there a great chance that this battle between the Browns and the Dolphins is a shootout, but the matchup is excellent. Miami has been an excellent run defense this year. Of course, it’s unlikely that they shut down Nick Chubb.
But they could slow him enough to incentivize the Browns to throw the ball. Despite facing four teams with weak passing attacks, Miami has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. They’ve also had three WRs go over 100 yards against them with two of them scoring. Cooper is in position to add his name to that list.
Darnell Mooney - Bears vs. Lions - DK $5,500 FD $6,200
The Bears' offense has come to life over the last few weeks. As Justin Fields’ top WR, Mooney finally scored his first TD of the season last week. He’s also averaged eight targets over the last four games. That came after he averaged fewer than five targets in the first five games of the year. And now that he’s re-established himself as a useful fantasy option, he’ll have an excellent matchup.
He’ll be at home against a Lions defense that’s allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs. This defense has allowed at least 87 yards to seven different WRs, which is almost one per game. With Justin Fields’ mobility now keeping defenses on their heels, Mooney could easily have a big play or two on his way to a big fantasy day.
Also Consider - Amon-Ra St. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kalif Raymond, Donovan Peoples-Jones
NFL DFS Week 10 Tight Ends for FanDuel & DraftKings
Cole Kmet - Bears vs. Lions - DK $3,400 FD $5,300
Kmet’s slow start to the season has kept his DFS salary very low. But he’s been turning things around. With the Bears having opened up the offense for Justin Fields, the team is now scoring points. As a result, Kmet has scored three TDs over the last two games. And although it’s not big yardage, he’s posted at least 40 yards in three of his last seven games. But the best news is that he has a great matchup this week.
He’ll be facing a Detroit defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. A tight end has posted at least 32 yards against this unit in each of their last five games, They’ve also given up four TDs to the position in the last five games. In a contest that could be high-scoring, Kmet could provide excellent salary relief.
T.J. Hockenson - Vikings at Bills - DK $5,300 FD $6,000
It didn’t take Hockenson long to become an integral part of the Vikings offense, In his first game with Minnesota, his nine receptions were more than he had in any of his seven games with the Lions. In last week’s game, he was facing the second-toughest defense against TEs, yet he caught nine passes for 70 yards.
Although this week’s opponent, the Bills, doesn’t look like a good matchup, it may be better than it appears. The Bills already lost free safety Micah Hyde for the season. They also were without their other starting safety, Jordan Poyer, last week with an elbow injury, and Poyer’s already missed practice time heading into this week. Between what seems to be a solid role in the offense along with an opponent dealing with key injuries, Hockenson looks like a strong contrarian play.
Also Consider - Greg Dulcich, Dalton Schultz