NFL DFS Week 5 Value Picks & Best Plays For Sunday
Jim Coventry | 10 mins
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Many NFL offenses are seeing extreme volatility from week-to-week. And it hasn’t been matchup-dependent in many cases. We’ll look to find value in multiple price ranges this week to help create an optimal lineup for our daily fantasy picks in Week 5.
NFL DFS Week 5 Main Slate, Ranked by Over/Under
- Eagles vs Cardinals - 48.5
- Chargers vs Browns - 47
- Falcons vs Buccaneers - 46
- Dolphins vs Jets - 46
- Seahawks vs Saints - 46
- Steelers vs Bills - 45.5
- Lions vs Patriots - 45.5
- Bears vs Vikings - 44
- Texans vs Jaguars - 43.5
- Titans vs Commanders - 43
- Cowboys vs Rams - 43
- 49ers vs Panthers - 39.5
RELATED: NFL Week 5 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets
Highest Implied Team Totals
- Bills - 31
- Bucs - 28
- Eagles - 27
- Vikings, Saints, Jags - 26
- Chargers, Patriots - 25
- Dolphins, Rams - 24
- 49ers, Titans - 23
- Lions, Browns, Cardinals - 22
- Jets - 21
- Falcons, Cowboys, Seahawks, Commanders - 20
- Texans, Bears - 19
- Steelers - 17
- Panthers -16
NFL DFS Week 5 Quarterbacks for FanDuel & DraftKings
Kirk Cousins - Vikings vs. Bears - DK $6,300 FD $7,100
In his two Minnesota games that weren’t nationally televised, Cousins predictably had his best fantasy performances of the year. Both of those games were also at home. He threw for two TDs and at least 260 yards in those contests. He’ll be in line for his best game of the season against a Chicago defense that has the worst pressure rate in the league. Throw in the fact that the Bears have a pair of rookies in the secondary, and the Vikings WRs will be able to take advantage of communication lapses among the defensive backs.
If that wasn’t enough, the Bears’ top cornerback, Jaylon Johnson missed last week's game with an injury, and he’s missed practice time this week as well, putting him at risk of missing another game. Not only will this defense struggle with Justin Jefferson, but they’ll likely have no answer for Adam Thielen either. We could see Cousins explode in this spot.
Zach Wilson - Jets vs. Dolphins - DK $5,300 FD $7,200
In his season debut last week, WIlson wasn’t exactly lights out. But he did throw for 252 yards and a TD in a road game against the Steelers. He’ll be in a much more favorable situation this week at home against the Dolphins. Miami is one of the worst defenses in the league against the pass. They’ve given up over 300 yards and two TDs per game to opposing QBs. Even better is that the Dolphins have been excellent against the run.
Based on their profile, we call this a pass-funnel defense. A unit that’s best to attack through the air. In addition to the good matchup, the Jets have great weapons. Wilson should be able to quickly find a mismatch on most plays. Between Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis and Tyler Conklin, Wilson is expected to have consistent success through the air. Based on his DraftKings DFS salary, he has real upside while providing needed salary flexibility at other positions.
Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. Texans - DK $5,600 FD $7,600
Fantasy managers may not be excited about Lawrence. Facing the Eagles last week, he failed to reach 175 yards. He also had fumble issues while throwing an INT as well. But that game should have little reflection on this week. He played against Philly in heavy rain against what may be shaping up to be one of the better defenses in the league.
Looking at the numbers, the Texans don’t appear to be a good matchup. They’ve allowed just four TD passes this season. But when we realize they’ve played the Colts, Broncos and Bears, we relax. These teams were never interested in being pass-heavy in their approach. Certainly, the Jaguars will have success on the ground. But they’ll look to get their franchise QB back on track after a tough loss. The Jaguars could hang 30 points on this defense. Don’t be surprised if Lawrence throws for three TDs.
Also Consider - Jalen Hurts, Ryan Tannehill
NFL DFS Week 5 Running Backs for FanDuel & DraftKings
Damien Harris- Patriots vs. Lions - DK $5,600 FD $7,200
There’s nothing sexy about seeing Harris in a FanDuel DFS lineup. He hasn’t cracked 26 snaps in a game this year. But he gets a lot of work when he’s on the field. He’s handled between 14 and 19 touches in each of his last three games. And he sees plenty of red zone work. He’s had seven carries inside the 20, three of which he turned into TDs. He also has a pair of three-target games, so he chips in a bit as a receiver.
What looks best is the potential game plan. The Lions are giving up two rushing TDs per game to opposing RBs. They also allow 5.31 yards per carry. Look for Bill Belichick to try and keep the Lions offense off the field by running the ball often. Harris should have a chance to put up 100 yards. Don’t be surprised if he finds the end zone at least once as well.
Breece Hall - Jets vs. Dolphins - DK $5,400 FD $6,600
In the last three weeks, Hall has seen his snaps go up from 17 to 45. His touches have gone up from eight to 19. The thing we like best has been his usage in the passing game. Through four games, the rookie has 27 targets. He’ll be facing the Dolphins, which seems like a bad matchup. They give up less than 60 rushing yards per game and just 3.11 yards per carry. But it’s the passing game where RBs can get at Miami's defense.
They allow seven receptions and 46 yards per game to RBs. Not only should he continue to be a weapon in the passing game, but Hall has already scored in two games. The Jets gave him five red-zone carries last week after giving him just one in the first three games. He appears on his way to becoming a lead back, and this may be one of the last weeks to get him at a discount.
James Robinson - Jaguars vs. Texans - DK $6,300 FD $8,000
The Jaguars are coming into this one after an embarrassing loss to the Eagles. Robinson had just eight carries, splitting equally with Travis Etienne. The easiest way to attack the Texans is on the ground. They’re giving up 141 rushing yards and 1.5 TDs per game to opposing RBs. Especially if Jacksonville pulls out to a big second-half lead, Robinson could see plenty of action in a closer role.
In a game in which they should have success on the ground and through the air, there could be plenty of production to go around. Before getting shut down last week, Robinson had scored in three straight games. He also had posted at least 78 scrimmage yards in his previous two contests. But this is the first easy matchup he’s had in 2022. And one of the biggest bonuses is that Robinson has a reasonable price tag that doesn’t reflect his upside.
Also Consider - Nick Chubb, Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert
NFL DFS Week 5 Wide Receivers for FanDuel & DraftKings
Justin Jefferson - Vikings vs. Bears - DK $8,900 FD $8,800
The Bears actually have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs. Of course, playing the 49ers in a monsoon, along with the Giants and Texans, will make any pass defense look great. The Bears were without their top CB Jaylon Johnson last week and he multiple missed practices this week. It seems that even if he plays, he’ll be far less than 100%. They also have two rookies starting in their secondary, Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker. The biggest issue will be communication.
The Bears lack a defender to hang with Jefferson, and even in their zone defense, he'll stress them enough to put their communication to the test. With two games of at least 147 yards this year, it’s easy to see him making it a third this week.
Amari Cooper - Browns vs. Chargers - DK $6,000 FD $7,000
Cooper has been the definition of boom or bust. He has two games in which he has less than 18 yards. In his other two games, he’s gone over 100 yards with a TD. Although his opponent, the Chargers, were expected to be a great defense coming into the season, that hasn’t materialized. To date, they’ve given up 162 yards and 1.5 TDs per game to opposing WRs. Although Cooper could spend time lined up against top CB J.C. Jackson, he also lines up in the slot on 33% of his snaps.
With the Chargers likely to score plenty of points, the Browns will need to keep pace. Cooper should see the double-digit target totals he saw in Week 2 and 3.
CeeDee Lamb - Cowboys at Rams - DK $7,000 FD $7,200
Lamb is averaging 10.5 targets per game while seeing at least eight in each game. He’s also found the end zone in each of the last two weeks. He's posted at least 75 yards in each of the last three games, with a pair of TDs. That’s allowed him to establish an excellent scoring floor. While in the past we've faded WRs coming up against the Rams, that's not the case this year.
Los Angeles actually allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. They’re giving up 17 receptions, 212 yards and 1.5 TDs to the position. Although Lamb runs routes from both the outside and in the slot, he runs 58% of his routes from the slot. That keeps defenses from being able to press and double-team him effectively.
Also Consider - Robert Woods, Terry McLaurin, Zay Jones
NFL DFS Week 5 Tight Ends for FanDuel & DraftKings
Zach Ertz - Cardinals vs. Eagles - DK $4,800 FD $5,900
Lazy analysis would say that Ertz has a revenge narrative against the team that traded him away last year. Although that may add motivation for Ertz, there are merits that show he’s a strong play regardless. Aside from Marquise Brown, the Cardinals are lacking weapons. That’s allowed Ertz to slide in as the second option in the passing attack. He’s averaging nine targets while recording at least six catches and 45 yards in his last three games.
He’s also been a staple in the red zone, as he’s scored in half of his games. With Arizona facing an Eagles defense that has an excellent pass rush and cornerbacks, Kyler Murray will need to use the middle of the field. Obviously, that fits perfectly with Ertz’s role. And although Philadelphia has been average against TEs, they do give up almost 40 yards per game to the position. At his price, Ertz has a strong floor and a TD would propel his upside.
Tyler Higbee - Rams vs. Cowboys - DK $4,300 FD $5,500
For his role in the Rams offense, Higbee is ridiculously cheap. He’s posted at least 61 yards in his last three games. On the season, he’s averaging 6.5 receptions and 9.5 targets. He’s become the No. 2 option in the offense. In this game, the terrible Los Angeles offensive line will likely get overrun by the Dallas pass rush.
The good news is that when Matthew Stafford has been pressured this year, he’s immediately looked for Higbee or Cooper Kupp. Even though Dallas is holding opposing TEs to 27 yards per game, TEs see seven targets per contest against them. Between the expected volume and the floor he’s established, Higbee is an excellent option.
Also Consider - George Kittle