By Bill Speros | | 9 mins
Most Bet On Week 11 NFL Games: K.C. Masterpiece On Menu
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The NFL betting Week 11 schedule brings us a heavy pre-Thanksgiving Sunday buffet of delectable delights.
The main course will be served in Kansas City, as the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes II play host to the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott. This game should be the most heavily-bet contest of the week at betting sites and sportsbooks.
This matchup has suddenly become one of those mid-season games that could be a Super Bowl 2022 preview. Both teams are in first place in their respective divisions and played perhaps their best games of the season in Week 10.
The early money has this game headed toward a two-way public play.
The Cowboys have 53% of the public backing on the spread and 69% of the moneyline handle. That’s according to our consensus analysis of the action at Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, Resorts, PointsBet, SugarHouse, 888, FOX Bet and DraftKings.
The Cowboys lead the NFC East at 7-2 and appear poised to walk away with the division. Dallas is 8-1 ATS (88.9%) and covered in its first seven games. The Cowboys are on average +7.7 points above the spread this season. The Cowboys are more balanced when it comes to the scoring total. The over has hit in five of the Cowboys’ nine games and Dallas is averaging +1.2 points above its closing total.
Dak, Zeke and Company demolished Atlanta at home 43-3 in Week 10 and slaughtered a 7.5-point line. Dallas has averaged -143 NFL odds on the moneyline. The Cowboys have been road underdogs twice this season. They covered both times after being +140 at the LA Chargers in Week 2 and +178 at Minnesota in Week 8.
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Anyone making NFL picks is aware that the Cowboys have perhaps the most exciting and productive offense in the NFL. They lead the league in overall passing yards and in scoring. Dallas has accumulated more than 400 yards in the past five weeks and 500 in four of the past five.
The Chiefs have won three straight and moved into solo first place in the AFC West after winning three straight outright. But they have been robbing the betting public for more than a calendar year. Kansas City is 11-18 ATS in the past two seasons. The Chiefs, who crushed the Raiders 41-14 last week, have only covered in five of their past 22 games, including the playoffs.
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Prescott, Mahomes Remain In MVP Chase
This game will likely have a significant impact on the NFL MVP betting race, especially with a big-time Chiefs win and another stellar performance by Mahomes.
Both Mahomes and Prescott are in the top 5 in terms of NFL MVP betting odds at DraftKings.
Here’s a look:
NFL MVP Odds
|Josh Allen||Buffalo Bills||+250|
|Tom Brady||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+350|
|Matthew Stafford||LA Rams||+800|
|Dak Prescott||Dallas Cowboys||+800|
|Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers||+1000|
|Patrick Mahomes||Kansas City Chiefs||+1600|
|Kyler Murray||Arizona Cardinals||+1600|
|Lamar Jackson||Baltimore Ravens||+1600|
Mahomes has evolved into a terrific value play here. This award solely focuses on the regular season and he was the preseason favorite. The Chiefs have seven games left and if Mahomes is able to help the Chiefs secure the AFC West and a top-tier playoff spot after Kansas City’s slow start, he will earn plenty of notice and votes.
Statistically, Mahomes is in the middle of the mix right now. Mahomes has completed 65.8% of his passes for 2,940 yards, 25 TDs and 10 picks. League-wide, Mahomes is first in passing attempts (412), completions (271), and second in yards and in TDs.
While Prescott offers a much higher price than Mahomes, he is not in the NFL top 10 in completions, attempts or passing yards. He’s tied for fourth with 20 TDs. The Cowboys' ferocious start has tightened his price.
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Week 11 NFL Betting Trends
Dogs Stay Hot In 2021
The betting public was damaged but not outright ruined in Week 10. Still, underdogs covered in nine of 14 games on the nation's betting apps in Week 10.
After 149 games in 2021, underdogs have put the bite on chalk bettors and hold an 86-62-1 (57.4%) edge ATS.
Oddsmakers may be enjoying this run but know that these trends are not permanent. The push is always toward the middle and the weight of history sits there, as well. This week, there are only two double-digit lines: The Browns -11 over the winless Lions and Tom Brady and the Bucs at -11 at home against the Giants.
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Week 11 Squeeze Plays
Four games have spread handles where the gap in public sentiment is less than 20%. Here’s a look:
|Game||Odds||Public %||Public %|
|DAL at KC||KC -2.5||DAL 55%||KC 45%|
|WAS at CAR||CAR -3||CAR 51%||WAS 49%|
|ARI at SEA||ARI -2.5||ARI 55%||SEA 45%|
|IND at BUF||BUF -7||IND 55%||BUF 45%|
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Week 11 Biggest Liabilities
Three games carry significant exposure in Week 11 based on our consensus analysis:
|BAL at CHI||BAL -4.5||74%|
|SF at JAX||SF -6.5||73%|
|NE at ATL||NE -6.5||72%|
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