NFL Rushing Props: RB Yards & TD Bets To Consider in 2021
In a land of multi-back offenses and workload management – and a pass-first, run-later mentality that has swept over the entire NFL – backing NFL futures on running backs takes deeper research now than it used to require. Tennessee Titans star Derrick Henry has become the exception to the rule.
Henry rushed for a whopping 2,027 yards in 2020. That was nearly 400 more yards than Vikings standout Dalvin Cook, who was second, and nearly 800 yards more than Colts rookie Jonathan Taylor, who finished third.
Henry and Cook, as well as Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey, have high expectations from NFL betting oddsmakers in 2021, but who are the breakout backs - and those pointed for a downturn - to add to your bankroll?
Three RB Prop Bets To Back In 2021
|Derrick Henry||Under 1,539.5 Yards||-112 at FanDuel|
|DeAndre Swift||Over 8.5 Touchdowns||+110 at DraftKings|
|Devin Singletary||Over 505.5 Yards||-112 at TwinSpires|
Derrick Henry, Under 1,539.5 Yards
Odds: -112 at FanDuel
Henry is the best running back in the NFL, and the most used. He has led the NFL in rushes, yards, TDs and yards per game in each of the past two seasons. But last season he carried the ball nearly 24 times per game, a number that dwarfed the 20 rushes he averaged the year before.
With 17 games on the regular season schedule for the first time, load management is going to be more of a thing for all RBs. That includes Henry. The Titans added Darrynton Evans in the third round of last year’s draft, and picked up Falcons RB2 Brian Hill.
Each will get opportunities, and that means Henry’s number decreases. In 2019, he had an NFL-high 303 carries but for 1,540 yards. Expect another big year, even another NFL-leading year, but this total is high for anyone.
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DeAndre Swift, Over 8.5 Touchdowns
Odds: +110 at DraftKings
Swift’s rookie year was sabotaged by injuries. He played in 13 games and started only four, but when he was out there, he was a force. Swift had 114 carries for 521 yards (4.6 average) but most important, he had a solid eight TDs.
If healthy, Swift should double the number of carries in 2021. He’s also a three-down back, hauling in 46 receptions on 57 targets. The team is in flux, with Jared Goff in at QB instead of Matthew Stafford.
New Lions coach Dan Campbell was an associate head coach with the Saints (Alvin Kamara, anyone?) and new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn led the Bills to a No. 1 rushing unit with LeSean McCoy, a job that got him the head gig with the Chargers. Swift is going to get his, and this number on our sports betting app looks appealing.
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Devin Singletary, Over 505.5 Yards
Odds: -112 at TwinSpires
Singletary had a promising rookie year in 2019, rushing 151 times for 775 yards (5.1 per carry). But instead of becoming a feature back in 2020, the team drafted Zack Moss. Singletary still outcarried Moss (156 to 112) and outgained him (687 to 481).
Bills coach Sean McDermott indicated he might go with the hot hand in the backfield, which is not great for prognosticating. There is even some worry that Moss overtakes Singletary as the feature back.
However, Devin has earned his spot as the top choice. If Singletary averages his usual 4.8 yards per carry, he’s not going to leave the field, and it won’t take many carries to get to this low bar.
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