By Bill Speros | | 10 mins
NFL Week 10 Betting Recap: Bucs, Lions Tell Opposite Tale
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions have written the most intriguing NFL betting storyline of the 2021 season.
Let’s begin with the defending Super Bowl champions. Tampa Bay had just one loss between Nov. 30, 2020 and Oct. 30, 2021. Since Halloween, Tom Brady was toppled by Trevor Siemian and the Saints, had a week off, and then lost to Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Football Team on Sunday 29-19.
NFL odds have favored Tampa Bay each week this season. The Buccaneers have been carrying some hefty point spreads. Tampa Bay is 6-3 overall but just 3-6 ATS. Tampa Bay, -9.5 in Week 10, has been an average 8-point favorite this season, while averaging a +8.3 point differential. Numerically, they could be 9-0 ATS.
Of course, not all games are equal. The only three covers for Tampa Bay this season at betting sites and sportsbooks were on lines of 13, 11 and 12 points. Those games were won by 23, 28 and 35 points. They came against Atlanta, Chicago and Miami. Teams with a combined record of 10-18.
The Saints and Washington gave Tampa Bay trouble in the postseason last year. Washington covered a 10-point line in the first round. The Bucs were underdogs in their final three postseason games last year on the way to winning the Super Bowl.
Backing Lions A Winning Wager
The Lions faithful cashed their “won’t go 0-17 tickets” Sunday night. Detroit tied the Steelers (without Ben Roethlisberger) in Pittsburgh 16-16. The Lions were getting 9.5 points when the line was first posted, but the line moved to 6 at kickoff after word that the vaccinated Big Ben tested positive for COVID-19 and would miss the game.
The Lions are 0-8-1 overall, but they roared to 5-4 ATS with their Week 10 cover. They’ve been double-digit underdogs three times this season, and covered twice on those games. They’ve lost a pair of games on last-second field goals, including a 19-17 decision to Baltimore that concluded with the longest field goal in NFL history, a 66-yard nuclear strike off the foot of Justin Tucker. Watch the total, as well. The Lions are 6-3 on the under.
“The power ratings on both teams have been pretty accurate, but Tampa has found itself in some close games to some opponents and even lost to some opponents that are definitely inferior teams (Washington, New Orleans just the last two weeks). The Lions have stayed in a number of games this year, which has allowed them to cover as a dog. The ATS records for both are really more due to variance than saying the lines have been off,” said Borgata AC Race and Sports Book Director Thomas Gable.
The public has taken notice. The Lions attracted 55% of our consensus spread handle in Week 10. If you simply bet the Lions ATS and the under on their nine games, you’d be 11-7. Not bad for a team that hasn’t won a game in 344 days.
“The Bucs/Lions ATS records are a combo of the lines being set as well as performance on the field,” added Michael Korn, Sports Analyst at PointsBET. “Although the Lions haven't won a game yet, they continue to prove oddsmakers wrong by keeping games close. On the other hand, the Bucs have been a bit inconsistent this year and it's tough to tell which team we will be getting from week to week.”
These teams offer two important lessons for bettors:
- Don’t be enamored with superstars.
- Look for value everywhere, even in Detroit.
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Books Finish In Black In Week 10
The betting public was heavily invested in Brady and the Buccaneers coming off their bye week. It was also the first time that bettors over 21 located in Florida had the chance to legally wager live on the Super Bowl 55 champs. Mobile sports betting in the nation’s third-most populous state began on Nov. 1, when the Seminole Tribe-backed Hard Rock Sportsbook app was launched.
The public was pulled underwater on the week due to the Bucs’ loss, leaving the books in the black.
|TB at WAS||TB -9.5||79%||WAS, 29-19|
|BAL at MIA||-BAL -7.5||79%||MIA, 22-10|
|PHI at DEN||-DEN -2.5||62%||PHI, 30-13|
|MIN at LAC||-LAC -2.5||59%||MIN, 27-20|
|LAR at SF||LAR -4||90%||TBD|
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“It was another good week of NFL for the house. We took some bigger bets on Cleveland, so the Patriots winning that game was the biggest decision of the day for us. It also helped when Tampa lost outright which eliminated so many teasers and moneyline parlays. We kept that number at Tampa -9.5 all week so that kept a lot of Washington money away but eliminating all the parlay and teaser liability was huge,” Gable said.
The Bucs loss boosted the bottom line at WynnBET, as well. There, the book carried significant liability on the Jets moneyline at +475 (no problems there) and the Panthers spread at +10. The book clawed much of that back on the Panthers winning outright. It also saw strong action on the Falcons – Cowboys (-8), where Dallas rolled to an easy 43-3 cover.
“It was a solid Sunday overall. Obviously, the Bucs losing to Washington outright took care of some moneyline parlays. The Panthers outright was a great result for us as well,” said WynnBET Senior Trading Manager Alan Berg.
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Week 10 NFL Betting Trends
Chiefs In First After Rare Cover
Is it finally safe to back the Chiefs again? The Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) rolled through Las Vegas Sunday night like Elvis on amphetamines. Patrick Mahomes II found his groove with 405 yards passing and 5 TDs just off The Strip at Allegiant Stadium. The Chiefs romped 41-14. Kansas City was the lone AFC West team to win on Sunday and emerged in first place in the division at 6-4, after being at the bottom of the standings just two weeks ago.
The outcome marked just the fifth time in 21 games – including the postseason – in which the favored Chiefs covered.
This game was a two-way play for the public. Kansas City held a 56-44 consensus edge on the spread. The line shrunk from Kansas City -9 at the open to -2.5 after the Chiefs had struggled at home against Green Bay in Week 9.
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”Bounce-Back Weekend” - Update
Underdogs have covered in eight of the 13 games played thus far in Week 10. After 148 games in 2021, underdogs hold an overall 85-62-1 (57.4%) edge ATS. The Bills and Cowboys bounced back in Week 10 for easy covers after outright losses.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers shut out Russell Wilson for the first time in his NFL career.
Rodgers missed Week 9 with COVID but has covered in his past nine starts. The Packers are 9-1 ATS this season and 12-2 in their last 14 games.
Here’s a look at how the numbers looked at DraftKings on the games noted above with the odds, outcome and public handle sentiments:
|Game||Cover||Public %||ML||Public %|
|BUF at NYJ||BUF -13||BUF 73%||BUF -650||BUF 83%|
|ATL at DAL||DAL -7.5||DAL 50%||DAL -365||DAL 78%|
|KC at LVR||KC -3||KC 62%||KC -150||KC 48%|
|SEA at GB||GB -3||GB 71%||GB -160||GB 64%|
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QUARTERBACK BEST BETS : Ranking Every NFL QB Against The Spread
Week 10 Rookie Report
Just two rookie quarterbacks started in Week 10 on Sunday. Trevor Lawrence scored a cover for Jacksonville in a loss to Indianapolis. Mac Jones won his sixth game as New England clobbered Cleveland.
Here’s our Week 10 rookie breakdown:
|JAX||Lawrence||16/35||162||0||0||JAX +10.5||23-17, IND|
|NE||Jones||19/23||198||3||0||NE -2.5||45-7, NE|
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Major Week 10 Wagers
There were Big Bets aplenty in Week 10. Here are some notable net wins and losses:
- Loss $357,500: Broncos Pick ‘Em (-110) at Caesars
- Win $513,000: Eagles ML (+135) Over Broncos at Caesars
- Win $472,680: Lions +9 (-110) Over Steelers at Caesars
- Win $472,680: Patriots -1.5 (-110) Over Browns at Caesars
- Loss $520,000: Chargers -1.5 (-110) Vs. Vikings at Caesars
Plays Of The Day
There were no touchdowns scored in the first three quarters of the Packers-Seahawks game Sunday. Patience paid off for A.J. Dillon bettors.
AJ Dillon +1600 first TD hits!!— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) November 14, 2021
… in the 4th quarter 😅
Not all kings are emperors.
Monday Night Preview: Rams at 49ers
Mercurial WR Odell Beckham Jr. makes his LA Rams debut Monday night. The Rams lost WR Robert Woods for the season with a torn ACL suffered in Friday’s practice. Beckham should be seeded as the third WR for LA and might even return punts.
The Rams are 7-2 overall but just 4-5 against the line. The 49ers are 3-5 and 2-6 ATS. The odds have hovered between LA -4 and -3.5. The total has risen from 45.5 to 50.5 on betting apps, according to our consensus analysis of the action. The public supports the Rams with 83% of the spread handle.
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