NFL Week 12 Betting Recap: Cyber Monday Specials
Week 12 of the NFL betting season saw the "Pros" separate themselves from the "Joes" just in time to spend their winnings on Cyber Monday.
NFL odds tightened considerably across the board and reflected the parity sought by the league. Given the number of tight spreads, making the right call required both luck and skill.
Of the 15 games this week, including the Monday night matchup between the Seahawks and Washington, 12 had spreads of 4 or fewer points. As is the whole purpose when it comes to gambling, success occurs by winning on the margins over the long term. We saw multiple examples of that this week across betting sites and sportsbooks.
FanDuel Sportsbook had eight games Sunday with a liability of 70% or greater on one side. Of those, the book won on five. The Chargers (-2.5) drew 96% of the spread handle and 90% of the moneyline handle before losing outright at Denver, 28-13. In that game, Teddy Bridgewater extended his NFL-best record against the spread to 41-18-1. Conversely, the public backed the Atlanta Falcons with 93% of the spread handle. The Falcons (-2) easily covered with a 21-14 win at Jacksonville.
RELATED: NFL Week 13 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games
Winning Spread From Coast To Coast
It's NFL Sunday 😍— Caesars Sportsbook (@CaesarsSports) November 28, 2021
The most popular games today by total number of dollars wagered on the spread at #CaesarsSportsbook:
1️⃣ TEN vs NE (21%)
2️⃣ MIN vs SF (15%)
3️⃣ CLE vs BAL (14%)
4️⃣ PHI vs NYG (10%)
5️⃣ PIT vs CIN (9%)
Who are you taking today? 🏈 #BetLikeACaesar pic.twitter.com/doxijzSx5X
There was winning elsewhere. Nothing too convincing, but more than enough to keep the lights on.
WynnBET Sportsbook scored wins on its three highest liabilities. The public backed the Eagles (-3) with 75.3% of the spread handle. The Steelers (+165) with 81.% of the moneyline handle. And the Jaguars (+110) with 88.1% of the moneyline handle. All three teams lost outright.
“It was a pretty balanced slate for us. We had some heavy play on the Rams and Vikings, so those results put us in a great position late,” said WynnBET senior trading manager Alan Berg.
On the East Coast, the Giants’ 13-7 upset win over the Eagles brought a jumble of emotion for two fan bases already focused on the 2022 Draft. And for bettors who often make it a habit of betting against both teams.
“We had another decent NFL week. Not as good as last week but I can’t complain. The best game of the day for us was Carolina-Miami, followed by Philly-NY. Once again, everyone was betting the Eagles with them closing as 4-point favorites. Most of the early games went in our favor with the exception of Tampa’s comeback. We had a decent-sized decision on that game with us needing Indy. But overall, it was a good day for us when it came to the NFL,” said Borgata AC Race and Sports Book Director Thomas Gable.
The top three games with the largest margins in public spread sentiment also fell the way of the book at DraftKings. There, 73% of the spread handle backed the Eagles (-4), 70% supported the Panthers (-1) and 77% rode with the Chargers (-3). All three lost outright.
Patriots, Packers Rise To Occasion
In what turned out to be the largest line of the week, the New England Patriots hit -7.5 against the Tennessee Titans before kickoff Sunday. The Patriots dominated Mike Vrabel’s Titans 36-13, winning across “all three phases” of the game.
The Patriots won straight up and covered for the sixth straight week, the longest current such streaks on both counts in the league.
Here’s a look at their winning run:
|10/24||NYJ||NE, 54-13||NE -7||NE -330|
|10/31||LAC||NE, 27-24||NE +3.5||NE +165|
|11/07||CAR||NE, 24-6||NE -3.5||NE -176|
|11/14||CLE||NE, 45-7||NE -2.5||NE -140|
|11/18||ATL||NE, 25-0||NE -7||NE -325|
|11/28||TEN||NE, 36-13||NE -7.5||NE -320|
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New England QB Mac Jones has all but wrapped up Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. He completed 23 of 32 passes against Tennessee for 310 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs and a 123.2 rating. Jones is now -300 at DraftKings to win the award. Cincinnati wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is next on the site at +225.
Aaron Rodgers showed no signs of COVID or “COVID Toe” in dismantling the Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay. The Packers tore through a Rams’ defense featuring Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey in a 36-28 victory. Rodgers, who did not practice last week, threw for 307 yards and a pair of TD passes, completing 28 of 45 attempts.
The top three contenders in the NFL MVP betting market at FanDuel are: Tom Brady (+300), Josh Allen (+350) and Rodgers (+750), and they all won in Week 12. Patrick Mahomes II (+750) and Kyler Murray (+800) round out the top five. Both were on bye weeks.
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Week 12 NFL Betting Trends
Split Decision Between Dogs, Chalk
The first 14 games of Week 12 saw a 7-7 split between favorites and underdogs against the spread. After 178 games in 2021, underdogs hold a 100-77-1 (56.1%) ATS edge ahead of the Monday night game between the host Washington Football Team (+1) and Seattle Seahawks.
In addition to New England, there were two other spreads in Week 12 of 7 or more points. The Cowboys (-7) lost outright 36-33 to the Raiders in OT and the Bills (-7) won 31-6 and covered at the Saints. Both of those games were played on Thanksgiving.
QUARTERBACK BEST BETS : Ranking Every NFL QB Against The Spread
Thus far, 40 games have been decided in the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime. The most recent such contests took place on Thanksgiving Day, when the Raiders (see above) and the Bears won on game-ending field goals. The Bears (-3) won 16-14 but failed to cover. In that game, the Lions fell to 0-10-1 overall but saw their record rise to 7-4 against the spread.
The Lions continue to amaze oddsmakers and bettors. Detroit has not won a game in 358 days. Thanksgiving Day marked the fifth time this season the Lions have lost by three points or less or tied. Three of those losses came on the final play of the game. If you had simply backed the Lions and the under in each of their games in 2021, you’d be up 15-7 after 22 wagers.
The betting public has yet to fully capitalize on this trend. On Thanksgiving, 64% of the spread handle rode with the Bears and 73% on the total handle was on the over, according to our consensus analysis of the action at Caesars, BetMGM, bet365, Resorts, PointsBet, SugarHouse, 888, FOX Bet and DraftKings.
Major Week 12 Wagers
There were Big Bets aplenty in Week 12. Here are some notable net wins and losses:
- Loss $220,000: Titans +7.5 (-110) Over Patriots Caesars
- Win $175,000: Patriots -7.5 (-110) Over Titans Caesars
- Win $350,000: 49ers -3 (-115) Over Vikings Caesars
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Plays Of The Day
Mark Andrews, meet your biggest fan. That’s a nice $118,500 payout courtesy of DraftKings.
Toe? No. Just dough.
BOOM! 💰 https://t.co/vUhwuZEWXg— BetMGM 🦁 (@BetMGM) November 28, 2021
More than 12,100 bettors at FanDuel have money to spend on Cyber Monday, courtesy of the Patriots.
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Monday Night Preview: Seattle at Washington
Check out Seahawks vs Washington odds, injury report, betting lines and more.
The Seattle Seahawks hoped the return of quarterback Russell Wilson might get them into the race in the NFC West, or the chase for a wild card in the NFC. But those hopes have faded since Wilson came back from a finger injury. The Seahawks are 0-2 with Wilson back, losing by a combined score of 40-13 to Green Bay and Arizona. Wilson has yet to throw a TD pass since his injury.
Washington (4-6) needs a win here to keep its plastic-wrap thin hopes of a playoff spot alive. Taylor Heinicke has posted back-to-back wins over Tom Brady and Cam Newton. Not too shabby.
The Seahawks opened as 3.5-point favorites when this line was originally posted but have seen that number shrink to just 1. The total has slid from 48 to 47, according to our consensus analysis.
Teams on Bye in Week 12: Kansas City Chiefs, Arizona Cardinals